[9:43] I still see growth uh maintaining at above 2% this year very close to the the baseline and and the Fed's baseline

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[10:05] they came into the year with inflation core PCE falling to mid twos or 2.5 or 2.6 at the end of this year and now it looks like it will be closer to three or even higher than slightly higher than 3%.

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[10:25] the Fed will find uh as even under Kevin Wars who who wants to cut will find it very hard to to cut. So um and we so that's the gist of the growth picture just based on growth alone it is not weak enough to justify uh for uh for Kevin Ward to find evidence to cut.

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[11:51] I think Wall Street has very well priced in a peak inflation in for May. So what you have shown here is the May CPI print and if you look at the fixing it's pricing in a declining a disinflating year-over-year. So markets think that May is the peak. We also have have been saying that May is the peak. So inflation will be falling.

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[18:25] when I looked at capex cycle I found that they tend to last about 3 years on the way up and 3 years on the way down and right now we are in the very beginning of a new one. I actually see this hexic cycle having at least another one or two year to to go considering last year is the first year.

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[9:27] I think our baseline for the defense budget is it will increase by another at least 200 billion. And so it will be a 1.1 trillion budget that will add 6 percentage point to growth impulse heading into the new fiscal year after September 2026.

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[6:08] we are uh forecasting that about 100 billion will be dispersed this year. So now that adds .3 percentage point of growth impulse to the economy.

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[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.

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[21:16] breaking support in terms of the the uh foreign exchange value of the US dollar. That's also uh looks weak. It looks like it's on a precipice. uh it's been testing uh up in the high 90s right now. It's broken through down through a 100.

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[20:38] we're pretty much poised on a precipice of interest rates on long-term government debt breaking out to the upside.

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[46:05] I don't see this really getting um there's no path of this getting better uh for the American household other than those in the top 1% other than those in the top 10%

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[5:50] I think we're getting over 5%. Okay, I think they're going I think the tenurs are going to 6%. That's what I think.

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[7:54] I think we've seen the pullback in gold. I think we're seeing gold in consolidation. And I think the gold has already anticipated the higher rates. It's already anticipated what was going on. And I think now you're starting to see some new money buyers come in and holding it in consolidation, waiting for the next big move. And I happen to believe the next big move in gold will be higher. I could see new highs this year. In fact, you know, I believe that we're going to get to 6,000 this year in gold.

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[8:43] Silver tried to break out last week, failed a little bit, but I I could see new highs in silver this year as well. I'm expecting to see silver get back over 120

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[10:14] history tells us that it's a lot closer because typically during this midterm election cycle between May and October we have averaged about an 18% selloff in that period of time.

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[2:59] I would wait for a pullback to buy... I do think that to get in initially, you're going to overpay. And I think you're better off waiting for a pullback and a and let it trade for a while to get the real view of where this is going to go. I think that when you look at the overall picture, you'll overpay if you buy it at the beginning

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[25:16] I think uh we will have be having by the end of this year recession nearly everywhere but the real recession will be next year. That's when the recession will get polite. will be deep

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[24:09] on our work by the time we're in 2028 probably going to see us and global inflation in double figures. That means that the bond investors want a return on their money. So bond yields will be even higher and you have debt invested. Well, it's going to crash.

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[25:16] that's when you will have a temporary collapse in long bond yields, governments and central banks throwing everything into the kitty so that you get a resurgence of inflation. Take us into the real collapse some somewhere between 2030 and 2032.

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[26:24] We have copper by 2030 rising, doubling in price, $28,000 by 2030.

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[21:33] it's easy to project gold around whatever it is four five today being in double doubled digit numbers in 5 years time.

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[15:29] This fragile environment is likely to rise over the next couple of years. We will have shortages of... You have shortages of food. You then have civil unrest.

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[15:08] I think the American market is in a bubble now, which is a very risky situation and also a highly profitable one, but you are guaranteed that there'll be a crash. It's just a question of when and I think that's about 2 years away.

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[29:58] I think at the moment it's had it had its moment and and it will that moment is not likely to come again for quite some time... quite some time probably 2 years around the same time you think the stock market's going to crash.

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[31:10] So there will be an aftershock in gold and there will be an aftershock in silver.

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[3:52] you're going to get higher interest rates and inflation is coming for sure it's well it's it's about to land

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[8:21] I can't imagine that May is not going to come in a good bit higher. I'm talking about maybe four and a quarter or higher and then and then you probably go to four and a half or maybe four and three/4ers by the time you get to the fall.

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[7:54] I think the next few few months inflation will go higher, at least the way we see it. So, there's the bonds will probably be under more pressure in our opinion.

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[10:31] Oh, I can't see how they cut rates at all. I mean, they would really they would look they would be looked on poorly if they did that.

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[12:41] we really feel like that when people finally pick up on it, it will be like gold and silver were last year. You know, how they, you know, see how they picked up the last four or five months of the year. We think they'll do be similar in energy because they don't own it.

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[13:44] the semiconductors, you know, they're like, you know, that's that's probably the high you'll see for five years in that group. They're way overpriced.

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[21:54] That doesn't mean we don't like it long term. I think if you if you really want to own it for the next two or three years, you'll make plenty of money.

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[24:14] Doesn't look like it... maybe that's 27 or late 26. Uh, I don't know. I think we'll sort of know when we get there. But uh until that time, I think the speculative nature just pushes pushes pushes

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[5:33] sovereign bonds particularly long-term sovereign bonds have stopped being the reserve asset the safe haven that gave you a cushion of return in an environment of weakness that the 6040 portfolio used to provide. You need to look elsewhere for that 40% uh out of out of equities.

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[13:38] I think we'll get persistently higher yields because as we have seen central banks do cut rates and they have cut rates despite for example in the UK you saw uh inflation was rising and still the bank of England reduce rates but you know what happens is that the bank of England cuts rates and in very little time bond yields are back have completely offset that rate cut

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[12:27] the demolition of the of the purchasing power of the currency is is virtually inevitable. So housing is going to become more more challenging. That's why real assets are soaring in value.

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[16:25] Yeah, I think that that is exactly what what I believe is likely to continue to happen. This this enormous discrepancy between what people perceive about the real economy and what they see in markets. No. uh and and and it's and all and and that means higher markets, higher indices

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[17:50] the companies that are melting up the technology giants they're immune to inflation. they're immune to uh the geopolitical concerns or the or the weakness in manufacturing that may happen in some economies in others not etc. They're in a different league and I think that that is likely to continue.

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[18:10] We are likely to see energy melting up and then melting down very very quickly

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[34:25] I think you need to continue to have gold and silver. Uh I think you need to look at copper... when you think about a pullback in gold prices, think is there a change in the monetary landscape? No. Is there a change in the fiscal landscape? No. Is there a change in the behavior of central banks? Are central banks going to purchase more US uh or euro or Japanese or UK debt or are they going to continue to purchase more gold? Therefore, there is an opportunity in a pullback.

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[32:29] The way I see about precious metals silver and gold particularly is that you need to look at them on a longer term perspective... I think you need to continue to have gold and silver.

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[33:37] Would I be long oil at these levels? Not very not not a lot. I would be very very worried about such level of deep backwardation in the forward curve. But that doesn't mean that oil prices are going to go to $50 a barrel. they would only go to 50 if obviously there is a financial crisis as in 2008 and I don't see that happening

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[34:33] This is not very politically correct. I've been saying it for a while. Look at coal. Everybody is is ignoring coal. But China is is using more coal. Germany is using more coal. Look, we're investors. We're not here to to to to take decisions in our portfolios based on what we would like to happen. But what is likely to happen is that there will be more use of coal

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[27:34] all those things that are macro are are absolutely correct... it is better to have an overweight position in US stocks relative to others that are also interesting but don't and also the units of risk that you need to take in order to generate the same returns that you get in the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ in the MSCI world or in the or in the stock 600 uh are much higher.

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[12:31] That's why real assets are soaring in value. It's not that they are soaring in value for no reason. is that the the it's discounting the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency and obviously unfortunately that is going to get worse

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[41:54] I don't think that they're going to get resolved... in the case of the Ukraine Russia war, you have Russia saying that they're winning. You have Ukraine saying that they're winning. No, none of them is winning. It's a very very sad situation.

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[0:00] What I would expect to see sometime in the next three to six months is a healthy 20 to 30% pullback, scary, then a counter trend rally, the Fed starts cutting and then if we're in a bear market that counter trend rally will fail and then we'll go to lower lower lows

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[5:55] I think I think we're going to see the growth scare come and be evident by the end of Q2

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[6:03] I think the Fed is not going to raise rates. I think the Fed will be cutting sometime towards the end of this year.

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[4:43] we're still very bullish on long the long bond. We like cash as the best near-term investment dry powder for picking up bargains on the other side of this

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[3:56] Housing prices are finally starting to give up the ghost. We had some bad home price declines in March, February, and March... home price declines really started in the south near the border... we're starting to see national prices come down

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[5:08] we're going to see layoffs start to accelerate throughout the year as companies cut the factors of production because of the margin squeeze. We're already seeing layoffs. We'll see those accelerate.

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[15:48] if you want to look at a uh barometer for liquidity, keep watching Bitcoin. Bitcoin peaked in October of uh last year. Bitcoin is trying to rally, but it looks like it may have stalled out. So, watch Bit- Bitcoin will lead the any equity correction.

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[14:04] I think I think the stock prices themselves are telling you the end is not in semiconductors at least. Whether that causes a general market problem remains to be seen.

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[29:46] I'm of the opinion CapEx is going to be scaled back as they realize they can't plug into anything.

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[6:32] we're going to see at this next round if we get a higher price and I believe we will think we'll see something similar at the $100 level because a lot of silver investors that have held for a long time washed through the $50 level watched it move up and then saw the January move of 70% in one month saw it go basically from the low 70s to 120.

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[9:51] the Elon Musks of the world can see out, you know, two, three, four, five years and they know what the dynamics are. So, they're very happy to buy silver at 80 because they know it's going to be 160 to two years from now or whatever the price may be, it's almost undoubtedly going to be higher.

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[39:01] historically and the seasonality is that we see a kind of a dull summer for the metals and I think that's going to be the case again. I wrote not in the report I sent you but previous one I expected to see a broad trading range for both gold and silver probably through the summer. I still believe that

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[39:01] historically and the seasonality is that we see a kind of a dull summer for the metals and I think that's going to be the case again. I wrote not in the report I sent you but previous one I expected to see a broad trading range for both gold and silver probably through the summer. I still believe that

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[6:31] our focus is we believe the demand for natural gas is going to continue to rise. There's an opportunity for the producers not not only just in in the US but also in Canada as well.

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[24:42] Last 20 years, no growth in electricity demand. Next 20 years, one and a half to 2% growth every year. When you when you add that up um and you compound that, you're talking about 75% increase in electricity demand between now and 2030.

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[26:19] Will it get regulatory approval? Well, that's okay. So, that's that that that question is a is a great one... will it get it? I I don't know. I more than likely but but boy it's going it's it's going to take a lot a lot long it's going to take a long time to get all those various state approvals and and the federal federal approvals as well.

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[29:58] Targo will continue to see increased volumes uh out of the Peran Basin... we'll continue to see steady growth in volumes coming out of uh Target. that for for us as shareholders that that that means, you know, higher dividends um and growth in dividends

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[33:36] not only is that dividend intact, um, you can go back and look at their history, they're actually going to grow this dividend, and they've announced it and it's going to be a pretty hefty dividend increase. I think they do it once a year. I think it's sometime in maybe October, November or so.

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[8:05] We don't have but a couple of more weeks, maybe a month that we could keep doing that before the the cumulative impact of the straight being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints in the oil market.

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[14:06] I personally don't think he believes those anymore and that he'll moderate to a more of a neutral stance. And that's where I think we're going to be for the next several months.

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[13:31] I don't think they're going to hike at that meeting.

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[25:09] I do think rates will continue to move higher. I don't think I'm at the point where I'm going to say that we're at imminent risk of breaking something. That could be later, but not right now.

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[26:30] Will there be a recession? Yes. But where will that recession be? It'll be in the rest of the world. Okay, good. It's not in the US.

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[32:44] I don't necessarily think that the dollar will rally from here. It could actually, you know, continue to turn sideways to lower. That's the way I think it's going to go.

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[38:15] investors are saying yes, but in a year or 18 months, will you be able to say that? And the answer we think as investors is no, you can't. The massive disruption is coming.

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[39:03] So since it is a technological disruption, I'm going to argue no, I don't think it's going to be a systemic problem.

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[2:54] I'm talking about obviously you know 30% or more in some of the indexes from here to say that that can happen by Labor Day may sound crazy but that's what a parabolic is is u you know things move pretty fast pretty far.

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[0:45] my guest today says the consensus is wrong. He argues we're entering the final parabolic meltup of a 44year bull market, a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[10:57] that's how I get to 180 right and I'm not so sure that I'm not too conservative still

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[12:24] silver is very volatile so that could go down you know 50 60 70% gold probably less so maybe 30 or 40% but it could go 50 and this goes 75

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[12:30] gold probably less so maybe 30 or 40% but it could go 50

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[14:23] let's say we get 7,000, you get a 50% correction, takes you back down to, you know, 3500. From there, um, you could see 20,000 in gold by the early 2030s.

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[11:19] I have a long-term forecast of $1,000, but that's out early 2030s.

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[28:41] I think we will see oil back down into the 70s based on oil flowing through the straight.

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[32:39] I think you'll see we'll we'll be back at 4% pretty quick on the quickly on the 10-year. And I'm I'm saying we could be at 3% or below by the end of the year.

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[39:52] I expect the the 10 year to drop to zero the 30-year to drop to a quarter to a half percent.

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[39:52] I expect the the 10 year to drop to zero the 30-year to drop to a quarter to a half percent.

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[30:57] I think we move into recession late this year, early next and into a bust uh for much of next year probably.

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[0:52] a surge that could drive gold to $6,800 and silver to $180 before triggering an 80% global bust.

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[41:11] I have said many times in the last several years that I expect the Fed balance sheet to grow by at least 20 trillion.

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[2:55] I'm I'm bullish on gold in the short term and the long term.

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[10:19] inflation is after the last two readings of higher rates is going up. You know, is it going to stop at is it going to get to 10%. I don't have any idea, but it's going to get to six, I would say.

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[9:27] the impact long term for copper is very good. It's, you know, the whole electrification story.

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[1:35] I I do agree with you that overall uh we are in a strong commodities bull market and I see that continuing for quite a while.

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[18:06] I think as a world as a world population grows uh demand is going to steadily increase for pod ash and it's it's takes a long time to bring on new supply and it's relatively constrained and it costs a lot of money. So and and right now prices are historically low.

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[20:29] Yeah, I I mean I I think I think so because those that's probably a temporary problem. I I I think that's a a problem that gets fixed. So, when when a company is trading at 52- week lows or multi-year lows because of a of a permanent problem or a problem that's not fixable, then that it's often not a good buying opportunity. But when when it's trading low on a problem that's only temporary, then yes, that's almost always a good buying opportunity because eventually that problem gets fixed

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[31:57] Royal Gold, for example, one of the top three precious metals, royalty, and streaming companies, I think they have a an extremely attractive riskreward... they're going to see a ton of growth in 2026 and also quite a bit of growth over the next five to seven years... getting introduced into the S&P 500 is inevitable. at at this point their market cap has to increase uh a couple billion dollars I think based on uh today's stock price and it probably has to stay there for a couple of quarters before they'll get introduced into the index but I mean as soon as that happens that's going to create a bunch of automatic fund buying and and that's probably an immediate 10 to 15% reate higher

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[37:56] they're probably going to be improving their jurisdictional profile because I I think they're going to sell their Nicaragua hub and spoke assets. Um, that that's something dragging down the valuation. I I think they're probably going to sell their Los Felos development project... they can be a 1 million ounce producer or more just from their Canadian and US assets.

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[6:11] We spoke last time about the possibility of the yields going to 5% or higher. U, you asked me, do I have more conviction in that view now? Yes, I certainly do.

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[6:49] the leadership, as you know, many of your guests have spoken about has become very narrow. Um, it's been all tech all the time since the end of March. I think that's to me that's unsustainable. It looks like a tremendous blowoff.

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[7:40] Consumer stocks making multi-year relative lows, Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald, Lululemon, just go down the list... I think the consumer stocks have been underperforming. I think they continue to underperform whether we technically get a definition to get a defined um uh recession or not.

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[12:32] I think the gold miners are outstanding right now. They're out of favor. So, the talking heads aren't talking about them, but I think this is a great time to be in the gold miners. So, gold miners, energy, regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil.

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[19:08] god forbid the price of gold goes up which I for expect it will these stocks could double triple without any problem at all... I think I think gold and gold miners go higher.

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[11:25] The yen has continued to weaken. Yeah, it's bounced a little bit the last couple weeks, but in the bigger scheme of things, the yen has been much weaker than virtually anyone anticipated. There's a simple reason for that. Interest rates aren't high enough.

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[21:30] I think this continues to be perhaps the biggest misallocation of uh capital in the history of the world. Right now, the market doesn't care about it broadly speaking... the MAG 7's done well the last few weeks, but prior to that, it did poorly for 5 6 months. It made up that underperformance in a relatively short period of time. And I think we're soon going back to that.

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[23:27] I believe the earnings of Nvidia are in a bubble. People say, 'Well, the PE is not high.' Yeah, I know the PE is not high, but look at where the margins are relative to the past... the problem with Nvidia is not what are they making last quarter, this quarter, it's where it's how sustainable are these earnings and these margins, what they'll be making three or four years from now.

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[30:44] Fresh which I think we talked about previously which Tom Chains nailed at our last conference. Stock went from 80 to 49. I think it's going it's going to 10.

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[37:55] active managers based on the last day at ISaw are killing it now. You know, I think the easiest way to outperform the market... it was so hard to outpour the market for a number of years cuz if you didn't know Mag 7, you were dead.

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[27:40] you're seeing, you know, as some have pointed out, um, the whole kamay thing, it started out with gold. That's moved to energy, food, depending what you're looking at, starting to really pick up like meat prices... it's starting to permeate. And then you look in the sector in the in the service sector inflation is kind of sticky.

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[12:42] regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil. Drill, baby, drill. And, you know, per growth in the Perian has plateaued... I think the service companies look terrific. Uh we've been in the OIH. Um I think land drillers in particular in particular look look very good right now.

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[25:24] do you think gold, it sounds like you think gold has peaked? Yeah. And if it does, are we in in more of a fluid situation where we'll see it move up and down or is this sort of peaked and we're going to face another one of these decades long period where we're sideways? Exactly. You you nailed it. The ladder is exactly way to do it. So, typically the way it works in gold and silver, we should expect years of bad performance after a period like this of way of outperformance.

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[17:00] one of my my key theme at the beginning of the year is stock market volatility is just too low compared to the volatility spiking we're seeing in crude oil and gold. We've never had gold like I mentioned earlier volatility run at two times that of the S&P 500 for long. Usually stock market volatility picks up.

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[17:18] CPI peaked in July of 2008 at about 5.6%. Right now we're 3.8%. And by 2009 CPI had bottomed at minus 2%. I see parallels. The number one theme for that was the last time we had a decline in global GDP

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[27:57] metals look very much like cryptos last year. Now if you mentioned something the crypto bearish the crypto people last year they looked at me like three heads and since you know Bitcoin's dropped what almost 50% from the peak um not just one now that's just how things work

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[28:43] Tether. It's the number one crypto dow stable coin. It's number three um right now behind Bitcoin, Ethereum. If you look at Enduring Trends, it's been flipping everything, meaning jumping up the curve cryptos. I fully expect that to to continue

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[9:08] I wouldn't be surprised if we're not into another minor down again and then go up again. We're just in that that's what you get a lot of times in these second years of presidential terms.

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[17:40] once they realize that in the next three or six months, I think you get another leg up on oil because they'll finally figure out that hey, and maybe the straits never go back like they were.

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[22:58] I think you have to get enough selling now to get rid of those momentum people. And that's probably going to mean another 500, maybe as much as $500 down from here. You know, 4,000 or lower.

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[27:27] All the miners are are getting cheaper. Now, don't get me wrong... they're getting selling right now... even though they're probably going to come down a little more.

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[30:46] Residential I think will be I think it'll be under the water for a long long time because of your demographics. You have this baby boomers that own all the big houses or all the houses and they have this idea in their mind about the house is worth. So they're stuck on it and they and they'll take it off the market and put it back on but it doesn't sell. And we're probably in that situation for a long time now.

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[0:13] We have a very large overweight in Japanese equities in our thematic equity portfolio. Currently, it's about 14% of our equity exposure.

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[18:54] We like being long the yen too. So when we own those equities, we want to own them in yen to want to profit from both the yen will come back.

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[23:32] I still think there's there's you know there's there's some noise right now. I still think the signal is very strong on the sector on those names in particular.

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[24:53] We've had a 50% increase in copper over the last 12 months. That has not really been reflected in the stocks yet. And even with the stocks moving higher... this is maybe just the beginning of of a big copper move.

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[24:34] Yes, we love copper, right? And this is this is one of the greatest ways to play copper in Canada... That has not really been reflected in the stocks yet. And even with the stocks moving higher... Will the market reward those that are able to bring on growth right to capitalize on those higher prices? I I think they're going to have to.

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[30:27] there's a huge patent cliff coming from the large pharmaceutical companies. All of their blockbuster drugs are going to come off patent over the next few years... what is big farmer going to do about it is they've been building a cash war chest... So what's their way out is to go acquire biotech smaller companies and we work with actually a Canadian lady in New York picking those stocks for us and we think there's a ton of opportunities in biotech.

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[34:44] first of all, we think there's a wave of consolidation coming. Second of all, banks do better in a steeper yield curve environment... generally we expect curves to be pretty steep... One of the catalysts that's probably the most exciting for the regional bank sector in the US is Trump. He's a deregulator and banks since 2009 have been very heavily regulated.

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[17:42] I think you're going to see a smaller but equally as profound effect with Kevin Warsh. And so, I I've got my hopes hung closely on that.

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[22:41] it will be very difficult uh for a good Fed policy to even with a price rule to bring that down sufficiently quickly to not have a real serious bout of inflation in the next 3 years.

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[12:51] I don't know what's going to happen in the midterm elections. I'm assuming the Republicans are going to for sure lose the house and probably or 50/50. I'm just guessing from other people's that they lose the Senate as well or at least real close.

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[13:18] The United States economically, socially and politically is in far worse shape than any time other than the major declines 2000 n 2008, 2000, 1987 and even 1929... it's time to maybe short the US stock market.

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[14:53] 5% on the 10-year the 10year gets above 5% and the market hasn't at least corrected hard then don't don't ever listen to Peter Granwich again

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[27:26] I believe there's a more likely chance of a raise rate than a decline... interest rates to me can only work higher over time. They're not going back to one two or 3%.

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[32:26] While I believe gold and silver will go higher, I believe they will eventually take out the highs they made earlier this year, may not be to next year, but they will.

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[30:57] Silver has finished its correction in my opinion... I do believe silver and copper have already bottom

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[11:27] I do believe silver and copper have already bottom... Its fundamentals have never gotten better than it is now.

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[3:33] I think we've seen the peak in that area. I think we're seeing some of these signals now. We've just seen one of the foremost experts uh who made an absolute killing in AI and has now actually gone short the semiconductor stocks. We're seeing a lot of layoffs increasing uh in the tech market and that's all the early signs when a market has peaked.

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[2:08] I'm still overall short-term bearish. I still think we're heading down sub4,000, maybe even as low as 3500. But I certainly am going to be a buyer when it gets below that 4,000 marker.

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[8:57] I also have this longer term major support level going back basically to 2023 that I do think palladium will come down to and that's just below 1250.

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[11:47] in general, I'm leaning towards 2029 to 2030. And the reason I say that is more so with the hundredyear cycle uh from the Great Depression. And I think things are going to get really bad.

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[15:31] I think honestly in the near term, yields probably are going to start to come back in. I don't think the government's going to let things get too far out of control without the Fed trying to intervene.

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[32:43] passive is gaining about 4% a year. So, you know, the math would suggest we're about two and a half years out. Once it gets inside kind of that 2-year window, there's tools that are available to start playing it.

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[12:30] those 401k flows are are increasingly at risk... the vast majority of them will be retired over the next decade. Um as well as the simple reality that we are now creating undermployment conditions for the next generation means that those 401k flows are are increasingly at risk.

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[34:28] what we have experienced through a combination of two factors the introduction of defined contribution relative to defined benefit and the introduction of passive to facilitate investing in that defined contribution framework are two once in a-lifetime phenomenon that are unlikely to repeat themselves... we are creating conditions where that eventually has to be reversed under demographic features and the higher volatility that emerges. Um, and that's the unpleasant experience. That would be like going... that is the experience of investing in the 1920s versus investing in the 1930s.

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[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two

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[32:25] if you just look at the historical length of secular bull markets, we're close to the end of this cycle. Next three, four years probably.

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[26:28] I think we can actually start to see the peak of the mountain on these passive capital flows. is like I don't know exactly when it's going to happen but I think it could be within a couple years like singledigit years we get to the point where those um those passive flows start to diminish you know first in in their rate of increase but then they actually start to to decrease

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[6:05] Our assessment is it's not going to hold this time that we're actually going to slip through and have a a bond market panic, but this time government bonds, biggest market in the world

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[17:39] it wouldn't surprise me that you peaked the stock market this month and that by the end of the quarter, you're somewhere well back in the halfway point of this quarter's range.

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[17:51] when you open next quarter, one or two of our major long-term metrics, particularly quarterly momentum, will be sitting on a floor that you cannot see on a price chart, but on a momentum chart, if you saw that chart, you'd say, 'Good grief, you better not break that floor.' Because if you do, you're going to implode. And that could be an event that happens later this summer.

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[11:00] gold will already be out of this congestion zone and silver will be well out of this congestion zone into the next massive multiple which we think is coming and largely might be seen fully or largely by the end of this summer. It's a very rapid event.

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[41:06] at that point you get into late summer and we've been several quarters after the spread broke out, silver versus gold. And I suspect that's about when you'll be seeing the kind of numbers I'm talking about.

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[19:01] starting probably with an emergence this month into next in terms of coming out of congestion and then of several months of sheer launch.

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[14:38] oil prices, grain prices, sugar prices, cotton prices, they're all in technical positions to advance in a major way over the next couple years because they're vastly undervalued.

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[25:20] we turned bullish on oil at $65 in January based on momentum... oil is in a bull trend and it occurred before that war started. So when oil drops back down, let's say into the 80s and everybody applauds and says, 'Oh boy, happy time again.'

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[0:03] I think that this next bare market and it will happen because cycles have not been repealed. Cycles are part of life. But the next bare market is going to hurt a lot more than the other ones that we witnessed in the past six, seven decades.

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[19:19] I think that there's too much inflation talk, not enough recession talk. I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.

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[18:26] what we're going to be left with is negative real wage growth which came out of the that that was the main message out of the non-forpe report that came out for May is that once we get the CPI numbers uh for April, we're going to see yet again the second month in a row real wages are contracting and unless the savings rate goes down to zero that's going to lead to negatives in real consumer spending.

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[19:21] I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.

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[23:58] You don't have to have a PhD economics to know that this ongoing movements in these supply demand curves are going to cause prices to continue to move higher.

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[34:18] the midterms, there's going to be again, we have so many imbalances, divergences, but you know, politics will play a role in mean reverting some of the stuff we're talking about. Uh because the Democrats are probably there's a good chance that they'll have a clean sweep in the midterms and then we'll see what happens in 2028.

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[18:16] I think that recession risks are higher than most people priced it. And I think the inflation that people are all freaking out about, including the Fed, is going to hit the wall in the labor market.

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[25:55] I think I think oil at $150 is much more likely than $60. I think we might not see oil at $60 again until the next very bad recession. So I think I think 150 is in the cards. Frankly, in between now and year end, we could see oil at, like we said, 200, 250.

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[10:29] To be clear, the 250 call is not directly from the Strait of Hormuz. Like that may be the trigger. It's more of a cyclical call that cyclicals tend to go to an all-time high inflation-adjusted price at the top of each major cycle and we've been near the bottom of the oil cycle. Maybe the bottom for was 2020 where prices went negative and so after setting up with a unrealistically negative price, I think we're set up for a potentially unrealistically high oil price, 250 or higher.

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[19:42] gasoline prices may actually come down a little bit here even as oil rises because we're in turnaround season right now for refiners... you're going to see the gasoline market loosen, and you should see prices fall materially, at least relative to the price of oil, to the extent that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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[24:17] the rig count that we're showing is inflecting. And so, it's rising and it's about to rise quite rapidly, uh, perhaps more rapidly than it fell in early and mid 2025.

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[6:59] I'm leading heavily into oil field services, especially onshore drilling and related services in the US and Canada, where we're seeing the start of a boom... And those services stocks are very cheap, and there's a lot of upside

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[27:36] I think the first wave will be you know significant wave probably the first 10 to 12% will happen over the next couple of years.

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[18:22] what that means is likely about a 35 to 50% correction depending on where you are... I think at this point it's very likely... this is going to take a very long time to happen.

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[29:54] we are going to start to see foreclosure sales go up significantly by the end of this year.

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[20:42] we're starting to see our first prime weakness now. So, FHA had been the driver... But now, what you're starting to see is the Prime books. That's Fanny and Freddy, and this should be pristine credit. And now, what they've done over the past several years... now you're seeing it on in the agency books. Um like it's happening.

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[16:33] don't be surprised if we either retest the March low or retest the 200 day moving average because there's just that heaviness in the trading where you haven't, you know, the the the buyers haven't been able to to get the price back over to the 50-day to, you know, get it into that short-term uptrend, which just suggests that you're in that digestion period after a really powerful parabolic move

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[33:59] we've actually now tipped into negative real wage growth uh based on the on the recent employment data uh as well as the recent inflation data. And so that that would suggest that consumers um you are getting to a point where they could potentially start to actually pull back on spending in a more meaningful way.

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[38:17] I'm not saying it's not going to happen, but I'm just saying there's so many tailwinds right now. It's it's a it's dangerous to just stand in front of that juggernaut until at least you see evidence that things are starting to deteriorate in the big numbers.

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[38:17] you know like okay we you know we got OBBB tax you know refunds um now we're going to be doing tariff refunds the deficit's going to get worse so you know it's it's harder for you know if you dip into a recession and you're already doing that much fiscal um boy oh boy like that's a that would be quite a feat

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[9:13] what happens with commodity verticals is there's always another bite of the cherry. In fact, there's several bites of the cherry. They they they make the amazing top and then they fall off and everybody's sad and then they kind of come back and then everyone's go, 'Yeah, it's going to do it again.' And it doesn't and then it falls heavily and then two years later it does it again but not quite as much as before. So there are shocks and aftershocks in commodities when you get a boom bubble bust. And to me this just looks like a a silver aftershock.

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[23:59] we're in a NASDAQ bubble now, just at the beginning of it. And we know what happens in a bubble. Some people go, 'Oh my god, we're in a bubble. Oh no.com. Oh, terrible. Run away.' No, no, no, no, no, no. Run away at the end, not at the beginning. Now is the time to run towards it. But we are going into that bubble probably two years.

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[18:38] It's going to be highly inflationary. We're going to have high inflation for sure, you know, really high inflation because America has to go there. It has to print money to do it.

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[33:06] that money that they pushed in at that point or whatever they did there that that you can't just pull it back. So that it will drive the market for a few months more but the impact of it the momentum of it the force of it will will slow down and then I'm expecting to see it go straight back on that line that we've seen for so many years

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[11:56] I have a never seen so many capex cycles happening simultaneously at the same time... I think you're going to miss an incredibly important investment opportunity that I think is just going to keep continuing and continuing to stay very strong for the next 10 years.

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[20:48] Our our view personally is I think we're going to have, you know, $100 oil on average for the rest of this year.

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[27:49] I believe over the next 10 to 15 years if the oil price goes up with you know inflation and and goes up nominally 3 to 5% a year the oil price can be in the low triple digits

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[32:08] I believe that with the uh expansion uh capital that is going to be converting into production. Um West White Rose and some of their other expansions, um you're going to see a pretty significant step up in cash flow alongside a potential step down of capex. And we love those situations where you get that big free cash flow wedge coming to you and I think Senovas is is is a really good investment here.

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[37:33] I think some way shape or form uh you're going to see it happen... I think it is this this is a deal that has to be done between Pneumont and Bareric.

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[38:28] my interest in gold is the continued debasement of the dollar and all currencies for that matter and that's going to continue and so gold's going to continue to appreciate over time.

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[38:57] even if gold just hangs out here for the next 5 years and consolidates this move, the amount of value in the gold equity sector is mindboggling. I mean, what's is another way of saying and what's being priced into the gold equities is something well below the current spot price. So, the equities are giving you a second shot at the a second bite at the apple, if you will, where you can buy gold effectively probably at 3,00 3,500 through the equities.

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[27:02] Look, I think the direction of travel for oil is lower... do I want to be long the price of oil in 12 months or short it from today? Of course, I'd want to be shorted.

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[36:30] I don't think that OPEC breaking up is the death of the petro dollar. I think it's the death of OPEC. Something we have been calling for and others have been calling for for a long time.

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[13:15] Yeah, I think it's the latter. Yeah, I mean there just isn't a lot of basic support for the economy, US economy as I mentioned earlier in our conversation. And uh as a result, I I think we're very like very likely to have a considerable recession and sell off in in stocks, you know, the whole the whole company apparatus that comes with a weakening economy and recession.

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[0:40] And now he's calling for a deep recession to hit in 2026.

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[21:03] we're suggesting that u investors should um should be very cautious and and and really take a defensive posture and that means being long um treasury bonds being out of stocks or possibly short major stock indices.

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[23:04] we've been very positive on India and particularly India versus China. India has a lot of advantages over over China. It it has no limits on population growth. uh it's uh uh if as a Chinese the Indians are very good at technology and the Chinese are concentrating on manufacturing and if you look at the future uh as as economies grow it's going to be the technology I think which is more important than than production and export of goods.

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[11:37] I think the agricultural approaches, soybeans first and foremost, but um I think that's probably the most sensitive area and the one where the US has got plenty of supply and and Chinese have the basic demand. So I think that's the one that's probably most likely to to see to see considerable actions and agreements.

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[1:29] Yeah, I think that um we're going to continue to see inflation running similar to what we've seen uh in the last little while 2-3%. I mean it's a little bit higher today and that's wasn't necessarily a surprise given the the jump in oil prices as a result of the uh the war in the Middle East

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[4:01] Interest rates are going to start to go up. And if we start printing money to pay for all of the interest costs and because we can't finance it, that again is just going to put more inflationary pressure.

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[7:02] And then also keep some of the commodities in the precious metals cycle because I think that again we're going to continue to see upward pressure on a number of key commodities and also on gold just because of the monetary instability.

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[9:22] Copper, you can't electrify and do all that we want without a lot more copper, but we have a shortage of copper. That's why it's over six bucks. It could easily go 8, 9, 10 dollars over the next couple of years.

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[15:16] It's almost inconceivable that there won't be a major pullback. Maybe that's not six Maybe that's six months from now. Maybe it's a year. Maybe it's a year and a half, but it will occur. Please be careful.

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[17:23] I do think that we are we've already seen a large uptick in commodity prices. So, we're I think we're well into a move that will continue. I say that for a couple of reasons. Number one, what we've been talking about, the amount of capital that's going into the AI spend and digitization, electrification, robotics.

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[25:44] If you're buying Berkshire Hathaway now, um I think it's much better than a money market fund. It's much better than a bond fund. Uh I would treat it like that. Buy it with uh a bond fund with at least you got so much cash, so much optionality and you got great businesses underneath it. And um and you buy it and uh and and just sit on it for the next couple of years and you'll do very, very very low amounts of risk.

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[38:30] Oh, I'm very confident of that. It's hard not to be confident in that projection because it's it's it's actually accelerated over the last 50 years or so. Um, and since we've gone on off the gold exchange standard, it was it was still it was declining before that, but now now it's accelerated. And so, yeah, you have to be, you know, you have to be in other assets because that's where the the the p, you know, that's where everything flows to... and you are going to inflate your way uh into a uh ever less valuable purchasing power of the dollar... that's how I see the future a continued decline in the purchasing power of the dollar.

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[21:46] before the war began um I was still saying we're we will have an inflationary boom in 2026 and for some of the reasons you've just mentioned number one there was one big beautiful bill.

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[25:18] I just don't see it happening until after. Now what I worry about to be honest with you Adam is once you get through this next year comes and we have all this uh strong asset appreciation this very strong uh uh pressure into the market to to expand and then the debt continues to grow. Uh it's hard then to avoid inflation getting uh further out of control which forces the hand of the Fed as it did when it got to 9% inflation in 2022 to raise rates and then you have this this very significant pullback with a larger bubble... That's what I worry about. 20 20 late 20 mid 27 into 28 I'm more uh concerned about in terms of the economy's vibrancy.

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[27:01] as we get towards the end of this year, um that the evidence will become more will become stronger that we have an inflationary problem and therefore you need to be raising rates. Now whether we will do that, the pressure that will be on the Fed not to do that is the question I cannot answer for sure. It depends on how this FOMC goes. But then as you get into next year, I think the odds on a rate increase are much higher. Uh and and I don't know how they avoid it.

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[1:28] I think that, you know, I think the way I see it and I think, you know, I I probably was among the first, if not the first, and I still haven't changed my mind, which is that actually the I'm very much of the view that this conflict is going to get uglier before it ends.

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[7:23] I would be very very surprised if there's going to be a major breakthrough this week.

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[12:37] even if there's no resumed finding, you're going to see basically this war taking a big knock on the global economy to the extent that oil prices will probably be sharply higher. So, this is the this is why actually, ironically, you know what?

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[11:58] I just actually sold some DAX this morning by the way and I'll tell you why. my my my argument here which is first of all I think the war okay whether you think there's going to be resumed fighting or not which I think there will be

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[32:09] as you get into, uh, fall, particularly near the election or post-election, uh, you have to be incredibly cautious what happens between now and then. Uh, very well could see a little bit more of this.

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[33:07] you see a timing window of of after the summer as more likely.

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Kempfer gives his contrarian 6-month forecast for the Strait of Hormuz and explains why investors should actually be preparing for a dramatic drop in oil prices.

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[9:55] And I think China recognizes that their leverage of rare earth is going to diminish over time.

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[4:28] I think, uh, you know, oil prices were looking at higher for longer. If we use the sports phrase, if we look at the overunder, I'll take the over.

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[7:47] I think bonds are mispriced. I think yields are heading up.

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[10:27] I think you faded here... if you want to make a market call, which I don't like making, I think I I'd sell out rather than buy it.

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[4:10] The inflation number you asked about, I think there's more where that came from.

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[18:04] is gold going to 6,000, 8,000, 10,000. I think it is eventually... I think gold and the miners and silver and the miners are going much higher.

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[20:38] So to me, I mean, stocks like 30 and change that, 33, whatever it is, the stock could easily double in the next year easily.

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[10:43] I would stay away from tech, just as I mentioned last time. Software, we said stay away from it's too hard. I'd still stay away from that.

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[22:38] we have not repealed the business cycle. A recession is going to happen in our future. We are going to have a credit crisis.

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[18:57] So either scenario, higher rates then. Yes. And then unpack the implications of that.

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[35:44] That's the epicenter of the credit bubble. the private credit market...Now it's $2 trillion dollars in private credit. The entire subprime mortgage market was 1.3 trillion. So we're way ahead of it. I mean that alone is enough to to to start to crater banks and crater the re the um the money markets to freeze the repo market to to fracture. That's where it's going to happen.

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[36:53] stay tuned. I think if we had this interview in six months from now, I think we'd have a totally different conversation. We don't have to wait that long. And we still have to see like, you know, what the June redemptions are going to look like with some of these credit funds.

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[28:47] That's the environment we're in. I I expect it to intensify greatly as we go through time

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[8:16] The implications are the copper price is going to go a lot higher because you need a lot of copper for these data centers.

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[8:27] valuations in the general equities market now are quite overvalued in my view and I think you'll see a disconnect. you see a reconnection commodities versus the S&P as we probably get some of the air out of this bubble in the markets.

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[7:14] Commodity prices have to go higher because demand is growing without any real increase in supply. To get new supply into the market, you're going to need higher prices.

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[10:24] In a in a rising gold price environment, gold stocks generally outperform the gold price by three or four to one. So yeah, I I believe investing if you want exposure to gold right now, buying the gold miners and gold development companies uh make a lot of sense especially since relative to the gold price most of them are undervalued today

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[22:01] I have been a firm believer for quite some time that that inflation was going to be a problem. You and I have talked about that in the past and um that's still going to be an issue.

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[11:25] the central banks and the Fed in particular are going to have to expand the balance sheets, become dovish at some point to save the bond market because the government runs on those IUs and they'll sacrifice the currency to do that. Whether that happens this month, next month, or the end of the year is irrelevant to me. That's the endgame. That's the direction.

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[10:46] I still see stagflation coming because no matter what uh happens on Main Street with demand and it's embarrassing... that combination of a very, very accommodative central bank to save the bond market at the expense of the currency will mean stagflation, recessionary forces on Main Street, currency debasement from DC.

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[23:54] gold has now made a fool out of the dollar and it's it's going to make more of a fool of the dollar... We certainly didn't reach peak gold in 2025. We're in the very first innings because the fundamentals just haven't changed.

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[36:11] I'm not here to time it. Many in the silver space are far more bullish than I am. But I'm easily at $200 silver.

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[36:26] Silver will move in a beta trade to gold in a bull market. Gold's bull market is just beginning.

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[28:34] since 1971 right after I was born US dollar versus commodities the dollar has fallen 99% versus gold 96% versus oil 89% versus copper... Paper money is failing... we're going to see more liquidity, more money printing, it's going to continue.

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[4:30] it's one of our biggest positions in the portfolio... you're seeing Amazon Web Services growth accelerate at a $120 billion revenue run rate from where we are today.

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[8:51] Microsoft Azure was growing 31% and the fears were they were going to slow down and then they're growing 39% and it's trading cheaper and it's going to accelerate and these are all the reasons why investors are punishing the stock

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[15:47] Meta trades at about 17 times forward earnings. And that's largely a function of the overspending. They could turn that off and... I think it's far more likely when you think about Meta is they have a right to basically penetrate memes and upsell them more services over time, more agentic services.

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[20:13] the velocity of payments is likely going to go up as well and that means more instances where Visa Mastercard have a role to play... I think there's an opportunity for both of these to maintain a pretty robust pace as we look ahead. So this is not going to be some hailmary bet. It's basically saying 21 times for this type of durability with the optionality on acceleration is definitely worth the price of admission here.

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[7:46] I'm actually both I'm I'm I'm I'm long the energy trade because of the longer the disruptions go on, the more of a fuse, you know, inventory draw downs and all that jazz. I I tend to take that view that that longer pinch point is coming. So, we're long more energy than we normally would be.

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[21:41] So Micron might be at $700 today. They're expected to earn 100 bucks later this year, if not early next year at the latest. They were losing 5, eight bucks a share 2 years ago. So the super cycle is real.

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[25:05] is it a tactical buying opportunity today? Yes. But is it a structurally different business than it has been historically? 100%... tactically long long-term I'm very cautious.

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[27:26] I will tell you what I worry about how it will show up as a turn value risk. That risk will be oh our growth rates missed a little bit because our sales productivity fell a little bit. Our retention rates went down. We couldn't take the next annual pricing cadence of high single digits.

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[33:07] We're actually long WSP. We like the stock tactically today but... I'm long these companies tactically because I think none of these problems will show up in the here and now. But increasingly I put a lower terminal value on these companies because these are factors they fundamentally can't control.

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[14:05] It's going to go from 100 to 150, 180, 200 in a very short period of time. When is that? I don't know. Uh uh 2 months, 3 months, 1 month.

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[14:57] I think it's going to be very problematic in the next, again, month, month, two months. Um, you know, the the sort of supply problems, you know, I probably underestimated arriving by about two weeks in the grand scheme of things.

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[34:43] the dollar will still be reserve currency but if we want if we want to actually make things here again, then we need a much weaker dollar. I'm not talking about, you know, 97 on DXY. I'm talking about 60 on DXY over a span of, say, 3 years, 65, something like that, maybe even lower.

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[33:05] you can look out and say look do I think oil and a is going to be higher in price in a year's time in 6 months time yes but somewhere between here and there is the mother of all demand destructions coming a spike demand destruction collapse and then sort of the structural underpinning higher so it is a you know I I for me I think it depends on your time horizon you it looks to me like we are in a new sort of secular commodity bull market.

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[0:19] I think the secular bull market is still in place and gold secular bull will probably peak out at $6,000 to $7,000 an ounce.

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[30:50] I think we'll see inflation moving higher simply because the money supply has been accelerating. So, so we got two two different things going on. And the causality in inflation runs from changes in the money supply to changes in inflation.

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[35:56] You you want to stay away from bonds. The the the bond vigilantes are already coming out. We we have, you know, the the the 10-year uh which is a key interest rate has moved from, you know, around 4.1% to 4.4. I think when it goes over 4.5, that's going to be a big that that'll be a big deal.

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[37:18] The 30-year is is almost up of it's just right under 5%. So when when that goes over 5% this is going to be big political problems. The the 30-year going over 5% which which I think it will do short shortly.

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[35:00] even though I think the stock market's in a bubble, usually bubbles only collapse when monetary policy tightens up. So, so what this means is that well, okay, we're in a bubble. Maybe the bubble isn't going to pop because the money the the monetary policy it's not tightening doesn't appear to be in the cards.

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[39:31] I think the Chinese Juan is is undervalued right now by a considerable amount. Uh so that's that's that's that's a plus. If if you're in in China, you're going to you're going to see not a depreciating but an appreciating currency.

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[31:37] we are entering a super cycle in commodities and commodity prices will be going up but that that that is not going to be the cause of the inflation going up. It's the money supply.

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[3:14] don't be surprised if by year end this year we see inflation CPI in the US at 4 4.5%.

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[14:08] I reiterate that my $17,250 gold price is as solid as can be. I mean I'm convinced we will see this in the next I I say 3 years could be sooner could be later

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[14:05] the gold price you know still going up over the next 2 3 years

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[15:45] Modi is on his knees. He's asking his resident. But what do you think they're going to, you know, think when your president tells you not to buy something? They're going to say, well, you know, he's going to depreciate our currency even more and it's going to have the complete total opposite effect. Okay? The demand for gold is going to go up.

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[40:03] The CPP is something like 34% invested in private equity. This is going to come and bite them in the rear end real bad at some point in time. And that some point in time may start to be now because too many private equities are not able to return money to their shareholders

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[25:52] You always have you every so often eight ten years you have a generational bare market. Well, we haven't had one. We've gone longer than normal since 2010 without one. But bare markets don't really crash particularly. They they just roll over real slowly for three or four or five months and then they pick up steam over time. That's why people can't they can't see it. They're just sort of drifting off. And then the last part of that bare market is when it gets really nasty. That's when you lose twothirds of the value.

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[0:29] I think we have not yet seen it hit biotech and pharma. I I think that's probably 6 months to a year away cuz it's more complex. But I think we're going to see a lot of initiatives there.

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[33:40] I think I like it in the rare earth and critical minerals type space where I think we're going to see more ability to process and refine these.

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[33:49] Electricity production, anything to do with the grid and the infrastructure around that. I think we've already seen like I think I already mentioned you know the cats and the deers of the world have been doing very well

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[3:07] yes the front end of oil is coming down. I think we're below 90 or right around 90 um on Thursday on WTI. But I think some of the other longer term contracts are still fairly elevated. So I think we're going to be kind of dealing with this higher for longer. It's going to take a lot of time for the Middle East to rebuild their energy production.

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[11:11] I think the real surprise is going to be a rare earth and critical minerals surge there where not only can we get the rarest and critical minerals there, but it's going to be far easier to process and refine them there than it is on the US.

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[15:20] I'm starting now to put these same sort of logistics and um investments again the equivalence of cats the equivalent of deer into Europe because I do think they are going to grow and they're going to do some more of their own tech. Just look at Nokia for example. It's been on fire and my belief is part of that is Europe is going to start trying to incorporate their own, you know, businesses more in their own strategies.

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[14:15] I I think they're still gosh probably 3 to 6 months away from having a groggy type moment. You know, the whatever it takes, but I I feel they finally are realized like we have to let Shell unleash. We have to unleash Total uh BP. Let us develop our own energy

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[26:34] I think drone production is just going to skyrocket across the globe. I think everyone just looks at this and if you want to get something done cheap, quickly, you do it that way.

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[34:16] I'm also starting to really focus on I'm trying to figure out the right way commercial real estate wise I I think you're going to see a redevelopment of the heartland of America... Low per capita GDP red states I think are going to do very well.

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[31:47] you just got a parabolic move in semiconductors, and that will end badly at some point. Now, you know, a reversion to the mean, it may be 30 or 40%. And for those people that are buying it now, you're going to lose a lot of money.

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[14:37] I truly believe that we will see gold at some point before the end of the year challenge $6,000 per ounce.

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[14:00] UAE has announced its departure from OPEC. So oil is just going to come onto the market and flood the market um really quickly. So the prices then in six months time should be a reflection and we should be seeing deflation in the gas prices again.

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[19:44] Yes, it's going to be deflationary, but definitely not in the short term. We still have huge capex. The capital of co the cost of capital with the capex deployment is very high. The demand for skilled labor associated with the deployment of capital and the buildout of infrastructure is demand, you know, is creating a huge demand on that limited talented skill set.

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[15:16] What's happening is big cities, San Francisco, LA, New York are going to see a decline in in housing prices, but we're going to see a rise in housing prices in secondary markets.

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[30:37] stable coins to me is just an extension of the dollar and that is now moving retail it's going to put a lot of pressure on central bankers especially non US central bankers um as the consumer base will flock to a USDC or a USDT um just mainly because they don't trust their own government, their own money

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[9:20] I think the valuation now is a lot more accommodating with the risks at play... My thesis is that for many of their clients and the solutions that they provide that that is much more infrastructure like and defensible that you still have a culture that will tinker and evolve with the world of capitalism and they you have a culture that will be able to allocate capital very well

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[0:00] our conclusion is somewhere between 65% and about 80% the market enters into a stochcastic regime in which the possibility of explosive volatility and a 1987 style crash becomes not a probability but almost a certainty. So we're unfortunately very close. We're gaining about 4% a year in passive share right now. So at that 65% lower level, we're you know 2 and a half years out.

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[18:47] I think that we probably won't ever get back to those levels that we had prior to where we are today. But I think that you'll see gold flatline. You'll see the flows in the west be a little bit slower than maybe they have been in terms of the investor flows.

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[24:25] I think you're still due for some volatility on the short term, but structurally, again, structurally, I think that there's a market for gold to continue to be on the upward trajectory.

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[23:25] I think we're diverging a little bit in terms of silver taking the place or gold or the tail wagging the dog or gold pulling silver along. I think that both markets are actually behaving um independently and actually uh the conversation isn't really about one substituting the other just to chase returns.

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[11:01] I know my personal opinion on Bitcoin is that it's going to go to zero.

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[18:25] I do feel that there's two things that are happening that are helping Bitcoin being a at least a few months slash small bull run right now.

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[0:18] Right now is a really vulnerable time for the bond market where we could see interest rates on the long end break out to new highs.

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[2:14] we are in an inflationary age, you know, the 2020s or an inflationary era that is going to persist for for quite some time.

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[7:35] I think we're going to start to see more and more talk of rate hikes to deal with this, you know, simply due to the understanding that it's it's much more than than an oil situation.

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[14:25] transitioning into, you know, these more kind of hard assets, real assets, whatever you want to call them, is uh is is probably a no-brainer at this point and a trend uh you know, uh that's going to last for for uh quite some time.

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[21:32] we're going to reach a point in time where the spending is going to have to slow and the depreciation charges are going to start to surge. And that's where you're going to see uh earnings for these big companies start to do kind of what free cash flow has been doing already, which is which is plummeting.

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[22:31] What happened in 2001 2002 was revenue growth slowed and all the expenses went through the roof and n the NASDAQ went down 90% plus. And so I think we are in a very very similar dynamic right now where the revenue growth is going to take a lot longer to materialize than the market believes

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[14:14] the broad stock market has never been more overvalued than it is today, driven by this AI boom, bubble, whatever you want to call it

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[12:08] I've been pounding the table for real assets for the last five, you know, 10 years really with the with the gold price. Um and that's just an argument that you know in an inflationary environment when the debt uh is doing what it's doing and the central bank has been ultra dovish for so long um you really want to own real assets in favor of financial assets.

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[2:42] this really strong move that we've seen in gold over the last year 18 months was really foreshadowing uh a coming move in the broader commodity space which we're now seeing which leads interest rates

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[17:19] the thought that the oil price is going to stay at record lows relative to M2, relative to gold, relative to anything else and basically stay undervalued persist dramatically undervalued persistently and definitely into the future is probably wishful thinking at best.

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[37:06] one of the best periods to own energy stocks and precious metals and things was that 2000 to 2010 time frame, which was a lost decade in the stock market. So, you know, these things go in cycles and uh you know, it's it's really hard to kind of maintain a long-term perspective sometimes when you see what the market's doing in the short term.

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[36:52] and then by Q4 uh you are going to have a material population as those people that called in November um are basically uh cuz those three months they didn't pay their trial payments they're al they're going that would have to go into the forbearance. So, right around Q4 after the election is when you're going to start to see uh and I'm not laughing about this, it's just the data just got really interesting and and so but you're you're going to start to see a real material buildup of sales.

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[20:57] Again, you still think nationally prices could go down somewhere in the 35% range. And nationally, we're still what I mean, are we even down more than a%? We're not even negative yet.

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[21:43] Um, but when I saw that Freddy Mack home price index, um, I I I think it was yesterday or two days ago, I was like, 'Oh, no.' like this this actually could we could for the first time in many many many years not peak out completely in June.

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[18:05] so it's we're going to see that correction and it could actually happen a little bit faster in the Midwest because I think their realization will come faster.

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[20:20] I don't think we've hit the bottom. I think a lot of people are saying we've hit the bottom in San Francisco. Um I think if we have any sort of correction and uh any of these stocks like Nvidia like the B we haven't even begun there. So I think we're again at this sort of turning point. Um but no I don't think Austin is dawn. I really don't.

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[9:51] I would expect to see oil if everything works out properly I would expect to see oil back in the 60s before the year is out. Okay, that's what shows up in the chart. That's what shows up in the in in the formation going out to because in in December oil is under $70 a barrel right now.

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[15:36] Intel should probably fall. I would say 30 or 40% at some point here. But again, 10 years from now, it'll probably be higher than it is right now.

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[13:22] I'm 100% a seller and I've already got a small short position that I put on today at Micron and I will add to it again. Th this the the rate of change, the rate that it is moving up cannot be sustained.

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[19:20] I think gold has made a bottom. I thought that blowoff bottom back a couple weeks ago at 4100 was it. Uh I think you look to be a buyer of gold on on all buying on all dips. Uh and I think that we're probably going to see this year 6,000 in gold before the year is over.

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[23:12] I'd buy Bitcoin uh or Bitcoin related stocks here. I know it's just recently come from a low and popped back up... to me that looks fairly bullish as it breaks out of consolidation.

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[10:40] Uh the Fed's not going to cut until inflation falls... he wants to hike rates a little bit further because inflation is dramatically out of control, especially with the high price of oil.

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[6:33] They're all saying, a lot of them are saying is going to be stagflation, stagnant economy, and rising inflation. No, it's not. It's going to be drag inflation, declining economic growth, and rising inflation.

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[6:22] I expect we'll be a net buyer of uh Bitcoin in every month and every quarter going on forever.

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[1:17] We expect Bitcoin to appreciate about 30% a year. it's been appreciating almost 40% a year.

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[2:27] We think the S&P the stock market in the US has been in a topping process uh for a year since early last year.

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[5:42] The new highs we just saw, I think, are transient. I think it we we we thought it would occur and we thought that probably it would extend into this month and i suspect you may even make higher highs this month than you did last.

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[13:03] multi-year bare trend? Sorry, multi-year bare trend. Yeah. But the question is what does it what is goes with it? What other assets go with it? Where will it how much down will it go? I don't know that I can say that most of the bare markets in US history of the last 100 years last two and a half to three years the dimension of the decline varies. Usually they're at least 50%.

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[37:48] I think what's on the other side of this congestion zone will take silver to $300 to $500.

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[36:29] We think getting back over 80 again in silver is a table pounder.

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[36:38] gold get up you get you get above 4,800 again and I'd say you know wipe your brow if you've been panicked

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[28:29] Now since since that chart we've dropped down to 112 area. you get down around 111 in price, which is that upper chart there. You can see it's probed down to 10750 back in 2023, but then there were two lows down just in the 111 since then that almost got to 110. You go back down to the 111 again, you're not going to hold. Okay? And I think you could get a mini panic.

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[13:57] we don't think the earnings is going to accelerate meaningfully in the near term.

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[29:35] we think earnings can double this year. So we think earnings can go up 100% this year.

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[27:32] Lots of growth to come here. We think for years provided these companies are still spending on on capex.

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[16:24] this AI spending is a really powerful multi-year driver. It's going to go over a lot longer than people think.

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[6:22] the increase in US interest rates and the so-called flight to quality around the world is driving the US dollar higher and likely driving gold either sideways to down.

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[32:59] the circumstance I'm talking about which is uh the renewed political favor of uranium translating into higher uranium prices is a two or three or four yearlong project.

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[36:06] I suspect that we uh ran out of that epoch in 2022 with higher real interest rates and I think that we'll continue to have higher real interest rates over time because I think we're going to have uh higher levels uh of inflation. Uh if I'm right uh then equity markets are pricing in too rosy a scenario probably as a consequence of 40 years of benign economic times.

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[37:53] It would be difficult for me to believe that uh political forces allow him to be as hawkish uh as his statements have suggested that he would be.

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For retail investors, Frisby outlines his $10,000 gold target by 2030

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Silver at $73 and the Disconnect in Mining Equities

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I still think we're a good five or 10 years from that, if not more. It's it's it's stating at 2,00 you know, 2,300 and something tons the lowest amount it can state and be credible.

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[26:59] And we're looking at $200 a barrel before we're through. I think I think we'll be at 150 before the summer's end and probably by the end of the year close to 200, maybe more.

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[19:08] I think they're both going to happen. We're going to exhaust ourselves and we're going to have a terrible financial crisis, much worse than 2008. That much I can say with certainty.

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[22:50] I also also personally think the Chinese stock market is a much better place to invest right now for a whole range of reasons and Americans are beginning to discover that

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[4:08] If you look at the price increases in your grocery stores in the months ahead, it will be worse than it is now. Uh but these rising prices will arise or arrive quietly and mercilessly.

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[32:45] If you don't have gold before that moment in time, you'll probably be able to get some if the purchasing of gold hasn't been banned and governments aren't hoarding all the gold for themselves, but you're going to pay a significantly higher price for it and have to jump through a lot more hoops, I suspect.

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[38:30] the commodity bull cycle has years to run. And so if if you're smart about picking your stocks, you can find stocks that you can you can buy as core holdings in a portfolio that you're looking to to hang on to for for 5 to 10 years and just ride the belly of a commodities cycle curve that will absolutely translate into into superb performance for these these these uh shares in the stock market.

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[14:43] I think the people doing that are going to be proven spectacularly wrong, just not yet. Um, and when it happens, it will happen fast. then the move will be violent.

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[22:02] we will go back to a gold standard of sorts while everybody figures out their new place in the new world order because they will need something.

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[28:10] it doesn't have to be an explicit default. We can have a de facto default through inflation, which is the most likely path forward for a lot of these countries.

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[3:29] I have no change in uh the u progress to a million dollar Bitcoin.

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[15:47] I don't think right now the only thing that's changed since February is I don't think we're going to probably go below 40. I think that the buying of STRC um is really provide and the ETFs has really been providing a little bit of a of a cushion to mean that we don't drop quite as low.

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[16:27] I think we'll still get down a bit below 60, but it wouldn't surprise me if it, you know, goes down to like somewhere between say 48 and 55, maybe even 57. As long as it goes below that sort of like 60k mark in February and touches the 200E moving average, then I feel like the cycle is still intact.

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[33:39] I believe that uh you know the AI tokens are going to be are going to outperform Bitcoin in the next three years um the top ones at least and that a lot of those gains will then roll back um into Bitcoin

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[8:16] And to me, it's not if it will go to 7,000 is when. Might be a couple of years, might be five years. I don't think we'll see it this year.

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[28:30] I've had about a 3% increase in the value of my overall personal portfolio in the last week because of watching some of these, you know, some of these uh BDC's and other other credit type funds.

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[0:00] I still believe uh because momentum is very overbought here because relative strength is very overbought here that we could see a bit of a pullback you know back toward this deviation to the 20-day moving average is very large the deviation to the 100 and the 50-day is is very very large. This is a very big gap over the 50-day moving average. So you're eventually going to get a correction back to this level.

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[11:40] So we're at 4,600. So if you buy now, be prepared to buy even lower. I think 4,300 is my target. I think I think we're going over the next two months.

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[12:07] I think this one's going to go at least one more month. At least one more month and possibly six months. So, we're looking at a five month to six month correction. So, we won't get an all-time high. We won't get that $1,000 back for at least a month. Um, maybe two or three months.

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[27:27] And I think 2028 it'll go through 2028. But I'm not I'm not uber bullish gold in 2029. And so I want to get out. I actually want to be completely out in early 28 because I think the cycle is gonna we're starting to get towards the end.

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[42:37] For me, it's 7 I'm using $7,000 gold right now. $200 silver.

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[21:21] I think we're going to see a cliff dive in manufacturing and a realization this summer that we've gone right back into an industrial recession.

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[9:06] I think we're going to see more large write downs. I think we're we're not going to see a cessation in high redemption requests from these funds.

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[4:52] I do think we could see the markets potentially rally another six, seven percent to the upside, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, maybe even more than that, depending on the time frame we look at.

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[19:20] Silver's got a, you know, $175 upside target

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[24:35] I think oil is going to stay elevated for a while. I think it's going to stay, you know, probably above 88 and and you know, 120.

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[32:04] based on this chart pattern it is pointing to like roughly like you know 8% % interest rates.

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[25:38] So I I I so when you know gold goes to 5600 my goodness it went straight up

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[10:07] But for now what lies ahead of us I think is the culmination of a cycle rather than anything resembling a new beginning of a cycle... this is a cycle I think like most others and it will end as most others do and a um uh gale of fear and of contrition and of uh and of liquidation

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[19:00] So I I I I believe that we are uh looking at a time of speculate excess that will give way to uh remorse and ironically enough uh the vindication of the u of the optimists who foresaw what will turn out to be a step forward and in u in uh human condition thanks to these inventions.

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[15:49] And I would say that on that form we are looking at overinvestment in in data centers. We are looking at uh at too much buildout. we are looking at rather too much borrowing and we are looking at the prospect for uh credit difficulties um for these borrowers

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[32:38] I bet we come down to the low end of this parallel, David, and we're all the way back to 350. That would be a $200ish drop on Micron back to the low end of that parallel. I do think by year end we're back down there.

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[35:15] I do honestly think we're probably headed back to about 50,000. That's my next target. 50,000 on Bitcoin.

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[11:15] once you get that down you still have the issue of what's going on even prior to those oil price spikes and that's where I think you get this longer term high-end inflation probably between three and 4%.

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[5:30] It's it's going to be a bank run. Um, you know, on the US banking system, US consumers have never had a choice of uh, you know, what currency to hold.

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[9:26] We're kind of the end run of the dollar as a world's reserve currency. Um, you know, where it loses tremendous amounts of value, you know, quickly.

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[11:55] it's going to result in a tremendous amount of demand. Um you know uh tether dollar is a simply a conduit. you know, you start you convert into TAD to bring into crypto and then you're gonzo into, you know, other alternative better products and, you know, what's a better store of value than, you know, tokenized gold.

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[15:40] now and gold is only a year into a 10-year run.

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[16:49] I'm looking forward to uh May when Kevin Worsh steps in. That that's going to be driver. He's going to push rates lower.

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[17:29] Yeah. You're you're going to your 100,000 is going to be there a year later, but you're only going to be able to buy $80,000 worth of stuff with it.

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[0:00] What I say longterm is I'm I'm bearish. I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors.

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[0:09] Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three.

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[0:09] Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three.

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[0:11] Bitcoin, as I we showed earlier here, it's stairstepping its way down. It has a bearish chart pattern.

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[0:18] By the end of this year, I think real estate pricing is going to be sharply lower.

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[19:35] And the chart is actually pointing to about $3500 $3,600 for gold over the next few months.

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[26:45] And it is pointing to about, you know, 50 to $52,000 per Bitcoin on the next leg down.

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[27:35] But I this being said, we're so close to the midterms. I I will boldly predict that there's going to be another postponement of forcing people onto harsher repayment plans for their student loans.

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[15:16] I understand that oil prices, in fact, I don't think the market is properly pricing in how persistently high interest rates are going to oil prices are going to stay, meaning put upward pressure on goods inflation. I don't think the market is fully priced in the destruction to the infrastructure in the Middle East and how long it's going to take to get energy prices back down.

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[30:28] He'll be confirmed by the Senate the same way, straight down party lines. But for now, the GOP controls the Senate. He will be confirmed.

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