Tavi Costa Predictions

[1:05] gold actually sounds like an outstanding investment for the next 6 to 12 months in my view.

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[1:45] producers great place all the the big ones are you know like theos of the world newmonts of the world those are all solid um operators that have multiple assets I don't think you're going to miss much there

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[2:01] silver is in that range a lot of people watching the 50 level I learned the hard way that you don't put a single price and say that's where I buy it because you can miss both ways It can frustrate you if you go to 45. It can frustrate you if it bottoms at 60 and and you missed it. Um, so I would be careful there, but I think we're in a accumulation phase of all these assets.

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[3:15] if you look into even um agricultural commodities today, they're acting like oil was 8 n months ago. Oil was in a consolidation period. Basically charts went sideways for two to three years. If you look at most agricultural commodities as a basket, they've also been behaving that way. I would suspect that we're getting close to a breakout there as well.

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[15:39] Copper that hasn't done that yet. You know copper is kind of sort of like in that where silver was at 40. And I expect copper to go crazy here. So, it's almost like the best analogy I keep using is it's almost like a a beach ball being held up against inside of the water and you know eventually right now we're seeing that some I don't know a little kid just forcing it down but eventually that thing just keeps going

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[8:34] natural gas is another one that very few people talk about and it's right now with the situation in in the Middle East and so forth has been taken away. But if you look at the structural demand coming from data centers and all what are we going to use for source of energy? It's natural gas. There's nothing around it. Like you can't get nuclear quickly. You won't probably get um uh wind, solar. I mean all these things the the only solution in the near term is going to be natural gas.

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[8:15] I would rather be long energy than be short the equity market. I think it's an easier call.

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[1:25] Well, I believe that that's going to be the case. I think we're in this whole discussion of if we're going to reach the age of abundance requires so much infrastructure to get there and it's not just the AI.

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[6:31] I think, you know, we're likely to add another at least another US uh economy consumer when it comes to electricity uh you know, in the next uh in the next uh uh few years.

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[28:39] so, uh just from reversion of the mean argument alone, you would expect this to start heading in the other direction. And obviously for the uh for all the reasons that you've been talking about so far today, Toby, that should happen as well.

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[36:41] even the Agnikos of the world are oversold and could see you know a very significant return over the next six to 12 months in my opinion

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[8:32] is is the amount of focus we're we're spending in terms of time and effort in capital into smaller markets that are not as relevant as as things like copper for instance which are likely to be you know a huge problem here in the near future.

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[35:16] I've I've moved a lot of capital to Latin America. I'm from Brazil... I made that decision uh uh not not nothing because of politically what's happening in the US really because of the opportunity that I'm seeing uh in regards to economies that are so driven by commodities uh that are likely to to uh uh to do very well.

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[38:42] I have recently uh uh taken the the approach of actually moving a little bit more to the silver side. I'm seeing better margins in a lot of the silver companies.

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[2:41] The base case to me is uh that we're probably going to see further cuts uh into uh uh into the interest rate uh environment not only the short end but also the long end eventually because the system cannot survive if we see this

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[3:18] I think that that it's on the cards uh for the next 12 to 24 months. And if you think that way uh there's going to be a lot of changes in in how uh a lot of assets that tend to benefit from the suppression of rates uh will will will work through the system.

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[13:54] The margins of gold companies and silver companies is drastically higher today than copper companies. But that's just a function of how much prices of precious metals have run up relative to copper itself. I think I think we're in the process of seeing that shift now where copper companies will also benefit from a better uh profit margin uh which will be historical too in my in my view.

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[18:28] Yes, it's likely to be the case. The repricing would probably be on the upside given the supply constraints.

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[10:12] emerging markets exposure uh to me is is becoming a bigger and bigger pillar of my own portfolio because of this uh of the situation.

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[1:58] I do think that inflation is is likely to stay higher for longer.

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[12:58] I think that there is a a very important macro trade, if you will, that is emerging here, that could be quite significant, which is basically betting that rates are going to go substantially lower.

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[28:12] I think copper is about to break out in a big way.

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[21:44] we're going to see most likely a big move towards in my view um you know comp countries starting to use gold uh as a currency either through a gold standard uh fix uh you know a fixed state of their currency with gold um backing gold in in a certain way with with their fiat currencies.

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[5:34] energy is unlikely to be cheap going forward. That's going to likely also have a a shift on inflation.

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[13:39] I think we're in the very early stages of that. you know you may see some volatility that would be normal 20 30% pullback yeah sure that's normal that would probably happen now the direction of the trade the direction of the investment thesis I think it's long and it's got long legs in my view

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[27:04] I I I think we're going to see silver prices establish itself in triple digits.

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[27:42] I actually think that you know prices of metals are going to be elevated for the next 5 to 10 years.

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[25:55] you're going to have a scenario most likely where rates go lower and the dollar goes lower.

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[35:16] Because historically always does and I think I like to bet on history and when I see the price of derivatives like call options are not Yeah. you know, reflecting the the the possibility of that happening because as you can see, it's it's actually quite explosive what we tend to see.

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[36:08] Once energy starts inflecting, you see natural gas, diesel prices, all that going up. You're going to see ammonia prices going up. You're going to see fertilizers going up. Eventually, what do you see? Corn prices going up, cocoa going up. All these things are going to go up in price

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[0:00] I think we're going to lower rates in a big way. I don't think silver prices would be here at $40 an ounce in that environment.

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[6:12] construction is running at about 7% of GDP. We could see double of that amount.

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[15:52] I think there's a very plausible case to be made that the dollar needs to go a lot lower in the next 3 to 5 years.

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[11:24] I firmly believe that while a lot of folks are f are paying attention to the corruption and all the differences we have in emerging markets, you know, those structural problems are not going to change. What's going to happen is the capital flows that are exhausted already into the US markets is likely to start uh uh switching and and coming into especially Latin America where I think it's going to be one of the biggest beneficiaries.

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[26:40] I think we can see double that in in the next uh in the next 5 years... I think we can see why not 5,000 gold prices in 5 years from now

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[32:01] 2026, as you asked me the question, I think we're going to um you know, unavoidably lower rates in a big way.

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