Energy Sector Predictions

[12:41] we really feel like that when people finally pick up on it, it will be like gold and silver were last year. You know, how they, you know, see how they picked up the last four or five months of the year. We think they'll do be similar in energy because they don't own it.

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[18:10] We are likely to see energy melting up and then melting down very very quickly

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[12:42] regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil. Drill, baby, drill. And, you know, per growth in the Perian has plateaued... I think the service companies look terrific. Uh we've been in the OIH. Um I think land drillers in particular in particular look look very good right now.

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[6:59] I'm leading heavily into oil field services, especially onshore drilling and related services in the US and Canada, where we're seeing the start of a boom... And those services stocks are very cheap, and there's a lot of upside

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[7:46] I'm actually both I'm I'm I'm I'm long the energy trade because of the longer the disruptions go on, the more of a fuse, you know, inventory draw downs and all that jazz. I I tend to take that view that that longer pinch point is coming. So, we're long more energy than we normally would be.

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[35:25] and energy I think has clearly more uh leeway to go up because oil prices are going to increase further. So I think they are going to do well.

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[5:28] the destruction of productive capacity in the Gulf both in terms of the Qatari liqufied natural gas infrastructure and the Iranian infrastructure on Car Island uh will take as much as 5 years to fix.

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[17:45] one of the things that I just learned and I didn't really understand until I spent some time researching some from some shipping experts is that even if you get this thing going tomorrow a month of no shipments takes many months to clear out the system and fix it up. So, we're going to have high energy prices for 3 to 6 months regardless no matter what happens.

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[10:23] the ability for oil to globally to come down is going to be very sticky because of all of the damage that Iran has caused across the entire ecosystem and the the and the and the supply chains of energy. So in other words really sticky inflation

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[16:18] industrials, materials, and energy, those those three groups in in the 1968 to81 period, they were like 50% of the S&P's composition. 50-0. In recent years, they got to like 10, maybe even a little bit lower, 9%. Only 9% of the S&P was in industrials, energy, and materials. And now that's maybe up toward 13. Are we going back to 50? No, but we're going back to like 2025

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[9:20] yeah, I think it has more to go. I mean, it's like it hasn't ever gotten the level. Like, for example, uh when when the when the min gold miners hit such highs, we basically cut those in half uh right at the end of the year, beginning of January 2nd, 3rd, and 4th. And we did the same thing with silver. Same. We owned Heckla. We cut that in half on the silver miners because it it tripled in a year. And so, it was a thing to do. Well, all those have come back now, you know, and you have a lot of retail in those stocks. In energy, you don't have as much retail. They're not chasing those things. Uh, it's more of a steady climb where people are starting to realize that, hey, you know, we're we're going to need we're going to need this and it's going to no matter what, it's going to be a while before they get this thing resolved in terms of getting back to normal. Uh, it may never go back to normal for quite a while. So, I think you have to stay with energy in here for the time being.

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[26:44] We think the energy markets will probably split in two um with a western hemisphere and an Asian hemisphere.

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[5:34] energy is unlikely to be cheap going forward. That's going to likely also have a a shift on inflation.

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[35:16] Because historically always does and I think I like to bet on history and when I see the price of derivatives like call options are not Yeah. you know, reflecting the the the possibility of that happening because as you can see, it's it's actually quite explosive what we tend to see.

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[23:19] I'm very bullish on energy right now and agricultural commodities. I think they're going to move. I think gold and silver are just leading the way.

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[29:56] I think they're all going higher. They're all really cheap right now, incidentally. They're really cheap.

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[13:44] I generally think that you know with with US shale oil no longer really growing at the pace that the market's become accustomed to uh and then and as we potentially get those Fed cuts maybe maybe next year for example. Um I do think we could see higher energy prices.

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[24:20] Oh, I think that, you know, for the end of the year, for the next 6 months, I think that all the safe plays are going to be probably the play to go with. It's going to be energy, it's going to be gold

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[3:32] Well, I think on the equity side, it's clear that the the play is the energy sector. So, I put out that post also yesterday. It's like we could see if this really gets to be bad, a repeat of 2022 where you had uh energy really diverge in terms of those stocks relative to the rest of the market. Energy I'm bullish on independent of the near- term because part of my deregulation thesis which factors into the FMKT free markets ETF is that deregulation benefits energy anyway particularly uranium names which are getting some good traction as we're speaking

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[24:35] I tilt slightly bullish on this argument

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