Dan Rohinton Predictions
Portfolio Manager, iA Global Asset Management
Track Dan Rohinton's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[4:30] it's one of our biggest positions in the portfolio... you're seeing Amazon Web Services growth accelerate at a $120 billion revenue run rate from where we are today.
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[8:51] Microsoft Azure was growing 31% and the fears were they were going to slow down and then they're growing 39% and it's trading cheaper and it's going to accelerate and these are all the reasons why investors are punishing the stock
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[15:47] Meta trades at about 17 times forward earnings. And that's largely a function of the overspending. They could turn that off and... I think it's far more likely when you think about Meta is they have a right to basically penetrate memes and upsell them more services over time, more agentic services.
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[20:13] the velocity of payments is likely going to go up as well and that means more instances where Visa Mastercard have a role to play... I think there's an opportunity for both of these to maintain a pretty robust pace as we look ahead. So this is not going to be some hailmary bet. It's basically saying 21 times for this type of durability with the optionality on acceleration is definitely worth the price of admission here.
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[7:46] I'm actually both I'm I'm I'm I'm long the energy trade because of the longer the disruptions go on, the more of a fuse, you know, inventory draw downs and all that jazz. I I tend to take that view that that longer pinch point is coming. So, we're long more energy than we normally would be.
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[21:41] So Micron might be at $700 today. They're expected to earn 100 bucks later this year, if not early next year at the latest. They were losing 5, eight bucks a share 2 years ago. So the super cycle is real.
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[25:05] is it a tactical buying opportunity today? Yes. But is it a structurally different business than it has been historically? 100%... tactically long long-term I'm very cautious.
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[27:26] I will tell you what I worry about how it will show up as a turn value risk. That risk will be oh our growth rates missed a little bit because our sales productivity fell a little bit. Our retention rates went down. We couldn't take the next annual pricing cadence of high single digits.
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[33:07] We're actually long WSP. We like the stock tactically today but... I'm long these companies tactically because I think none of these problems will show up in the here and now. But increasingly I put a lower terminal value on these companies because these are factors they fundamentally can't control.
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