New Predictions
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[10:01] we're still going to see much higher inflation this year. Julia, I haven't changed that prognosis. Double digits still. Yeah, I think so because we're going to see shortages in some really important commodities, things like fertilizer for the farm for example, and that cost is going to get passed through consumers.
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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.
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[9:07] As we look forward into the remainder of 2026 and into the start of 2027, the supplies that we're missing that are not there anymore hurts the global SMD. And so who does that put more pressure on? It's the buyer because that manufacturer for the rest of this year and into next year is going to be able to sit there and say supplies are tight. You need the tons. I can afford to sit back and wait for you to step forward and buy my price because I just don't feel that pressure. I feel like I'm in a more powerful position. And that's where you start to get some of these points of view that as a whole these markets are going to be higher priced.
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[2:28] I think it's going to happen again probably longer and deeper.
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[7:38] technically, the NASDAQ could run about almost about 10% to its first target. That's just saying the current vibrations and the momentum in the market is saying we should see the NASDAQ rally about 10%. The 100% measured move is way up here at 35,400. So, it's showing about a 18% move to the upside.
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[5:33] we're certainly going to have a pullback in the market. So what this is is this is a Fibonacci retracement. And and if you're not fi familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels... a retracement of you know back to kind of the 50% retracement level which you would kind of expect after such a big advance. Not saying that's got to happen but and that's where the previous breakout high was. So it' be a retracement of the previous breakout. That's about a 7 and a half% decline from here.
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[2:28] I think it's going to happen again probably longer and deeper.
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[1:41] I I believe it is. I I I think what you're seeing in gold uh and also what you're seeing in silver is a digestion and a consolidation of the dramatic rise that we saw last year and the early part of this year. Uh we we know you can't sprint forever. You need to take a breather and I think that's exactly what's happening.
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[33:19] gold is the stable play here. This is where whatever happens, you're going to be good and you're probably going to increase it. Because that's what history tells us. This is why the central banks are buying gold at these levels.
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[9:08] a lot of the crypto investors uh basically throw in the towel on that and realize they kind of got suckered into a into a pyramid Ponzi type scheme and that Bitcoin isn't actually digital gold and so you're going to see a rush uh to get into the real thing.
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[15:48] if you want to look at a uh barometer for liquidity, keep watching Bitcoin. Bitcoin peaked in October of uh last year. Bitcoin is trying to rally, but it looks like it may have stalled out. So, watch Bit- Bitcoin will lead the any equity correction.
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Recently Settled
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[14:25] So I expect another surge in prices for oil at the at the end of this month just just due to that because there'll be a gap of of basically no deliveries
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The prediction claimed oil prices would surge at the end of April due to delivery gaps; the period high reached $108.6 on April 29 (trading day 4), representing a 13.3% rise from the prediction date price of $95.85, confirming a significant surge occurred within the target window.
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[15:08] I think what's next is a massive air and missile campaign that begins sometime on Monday that is designed to destroy the Iranian state and cause the disintegration of the Iranian society.
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No massive air and missile campaign against Iran began on Monday, April 20, 2026. Instead, the US-Iran ceasefire (in effect since April 7-8) continued, with Trump stating it would end 'Wednesday evening Washington time' and VP Vance traveling to Pakistan for further negotiations. While tensions escalated with a US seizure of an Iranian ship, no new massive bombing campaign was launched that Monday. (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/04/20/world/live-news/iran-war-us-trump-israel)
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[2:24] the markets are threatening and pushing up to maybe hit all-time highs here in the um next couple of sessions.
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The S&P 500 hit a period high of $7147.52 on 2026-04-17, surpassing the all-time high of $7002.28 set on 2026-01-28, confirming the prediction that it would hit all-time highs within the next couple of sessions.
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[28:40] Fed meeting coming up end of April... What do you think? Do you think cuts are on the table or no or hope? No.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, making no cut. This was the third consecutive pause, with markets pricing in a 100% chance of no change. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
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[39:03] I'm not talking about geopolitical tail risks. I'm not talking about that. I'm telling you probably in four weeks I'll turn extremely bullish on what's going to happen with the world. That's my own personal belief.
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As of May 8, 2026 (four weeks after the prediction), the Iran war has not favorably resolved. While a fragile ceasefire was agreed on April 8 and a one-page MOU is being negotiated, both sides continue to accuse each other of violations, the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, US gasoline costs 50%+ more than pre-war, and no final agreement has been reached. The situation is far from a favorable resolution. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran_war_ceasefire)
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[29:01] the average life span of a reserve currency is right at 90 years old. Okay, we're already there. So, if you go back, you know, before us it was Britain and then it was France, Netherlands, Spain, and on and on. So, the average just in the last 5 600 years the average life span, if you do the math, is right at 90. Well, we're over 100.
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[32:25] the dollar is going to depreciate uh and that's going to continue to provide a tailwind for the rest of the world. Everyone likes to say, well, it hasn't happened yet. The point is that it's happening, but it's it's happening slowly and will just build over time.
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[10:01] we're still going to see much higher inflation this year. Julia, I haven't changed that prognosis. Double digits still. Yeah, I think so because we're going to see shortages in some really important commodities, things like fertilizer for the farm for example, and that cost is going to get passed through consumers.
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[21:00] yes yes and yes... we ultimately have to figure out whether or not the Kevin Walsh Federal Reserve is going to look through uh these sticky inflation pressures... The only thing that's negative is sticky inflation. And in our opinion, we think the sticky inflation thing may cause some problems uh once we get uh maybe you know um you know may cause some problems over the next let's call it 3 to six months.
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[9:43] I still see growth uh maintaining at above 2% this year very close to the the baseline and and the Fed's baseline
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[46:05] I don't see this really getting um there's no path of this getting better uh for the American household other than those in the top 1% other than those in the top 10%
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