Anna Wong Predictions
Chief U.S. Economist, Bloomberg Economics
Track Anna Wong's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[15:58] This is why I still only expect one hike uh this year.
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[13:01] So, so I would say 80. So as I said before, Kevin Walsh said the market signals from now on will shape economic reality. Markets have spoken. They said and they want they expect a a hike. So if market says it's 90 almost 90%, 80% is 90% 80%. Because uh the Fed is going to listen to them under uh Kevin Worsh.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed did hike rates at its September 2026 meeting. The FOMC voted 12-0 on September 16, 2026 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, confirming the prediction was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[7:44] likely uh in September, we're 11 days into September. That is going to translate to more than 5% increase in gasoline prices which will add uh roughly uh 0.2 percentage point on headline CPI. So in September uh the headline CPI is going to be probably at least 0.4%.
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[10:14] headline CPI could possibly fall below even 2%. if if prices uh if if gasoline price were or or crude oil were to come down to a more regular 70 or 60%. Um so and and headline CPI falls really fast as they rise very fast.
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[20:07] I think this is going to squeeze and reduce the runway of this labor market recovery.
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[37:23] We estimate that AI uh capex roughly contributed 1 percentage point to GDP growth in the first half of this year. If the uh capex growth has will will slow next year even though it's still positive it means the GDP contribution would be smaller could be you know we think it could be you know .5 or lower um and so this is we are at peak AI capex boom contribution to GDP right now that is going to change
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[31:17] at 5% you're going to see very very clear restraining uh impact on the uh economic activity and as well on small businesses and eventually on the labor market.
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[9:43] I still see growth uh maintaining at above 2% this year very close to the the baseline and and the Fed's baseline
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[10:05] they came into the year with inflation core PCE falling to mid twos or 2.5 or 2.6 at the end of this year and now it looks like it will be closer to three or even higher than slightly higher than 3%.
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[10:25] the Fed will find uh as even under Kevin Wars who who wants to cut will find it very hard to to cut. So um and we so that's the gist of the growth picture just based on growth alone it is not weak enough to justify uh for uh for Kevin Ward to find evidence to cut.
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[11:51] I think Wall Street has very well priced in a peak inflation in for May. So what you have shown here is the May CPI print and if you look at the fixing it's pricing in a declining a disinflating year-over-year. So markets think that May is the peak. We also have have been saying that May is the peak. So inflation will be falling.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction that May 2026 would be the CPI peak was correct. May CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year (the highest since April 2023), and the June 2026 CPI then fell sharply to 3.5% year-over-year — confirming that May was the peak and inflation began declining thereafter. (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/)
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[18:25] when I looked at capex cycle I found that they tend to last about 3 years on the way up and 3 years on the way down and right now we are in the very beginning of a new one. I actually see this hexic cycle having at least another one or two year to to go considering last year is the first year.
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[9:27] I think our baseline for the defense budget is it will increase by another at least 200 billion. And so it will be a 1.1 trillion budget that will add 6 percentage point to growth impulse heading into the new fiscal year after September 2026.
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The House FY2027 defense appropriations bill sets a ~$1.072 trillion discretionary topline — a $234 billion increase over FY2026's enacted ~$838.7B base — broadly matching the prediction of a $200B+ increase to ~$1.1T. However, full-year FY2027 appropriations have not yet been enacted (Congress is on a continuing resolution), and the total including requested reconciliation funds reaches $1.5T, not $1.1T. (https://democrats-appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/republicans-unveil-1-trillion-defense-funding-bill-largest-history-amid-steep)
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[6:08] we are uh forecasting that about 100 billion will be dispersed this year. So now that adds .3 percentage point of growth impulse to the economy.
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