Gold & Silver Backtests

About this data

Each strategy simulates investing $100,000 in the metal's ETF — GLD (gold, from Nov 2004) or SLV (silver, from Apr 2006) — through to the present. Use the Gold/Silver toggle to switch; each table is ranked against buy-and-hold of that same metal. Click any strategy to overlay its equity curve; click a rolling best/worst or max-drawdown cell to highlight that period.

No dividends — total return is price return. Unlike equity ETFs, GLD and SLV pay no dividends. Their Yahoo Finance prices already reflect each fund's expense ratio (0.40% for GLD, 0.50% for SLV), which erodes NAV slightly over time versus spot metal.

Each asset vs. its own buy-and-hold. Green/red in the table is relative to buy-and-hold of that same metal — so a gold strategy is judged against holding gold, never against the S&P.

Next-day open execution, 5 bps friction, cash earns 0%. Signals generated at the close execute at the next day's open; every trade costs 0.05%; cash held out of the market earns nothing (a conservative bias against timing). Leveraged and Nasdaq-specific strategies from the equities page are excluded — there is no gold/silver 2× ETF in the dataset.

Returns are pre-tax. Active strategies realize gains along the way; buy-and-hold can defer tax indefinitely.

	Trailing CAGR					Rolling 5yr			Rolling 10yr
Strategy	Full	Max DD	1yr	5yr	10yr	Median	Best	Worst	Median	Best	Worst
Buy and Hold Invest 100% on day 1 and never sell.	10.3%	-45.6%	19.9%	17.0%	11.3%	7.9%	25.3%	-8.2%	4.3%	16.7%	-1.3%
Cash Reserve Slow Rebuild Hold 10% cash; deploy on 5% dip, rebuild 1%/month near ATH.	10.2%	-45.4%	18.9%	16.7%	11.1%	7.8%	25.1%	-8.2%	4.3%	16.6%	-1.3%
Cash Reserve Deep Dip Hold 10% cash; deploy on 10% dip, rebuild only after 21 days at ATH.	10.1%	-45.6%	19.9%	17.0%	11.3%	7.9%	25.3%	-8.2%	4.3%	16.7%	-1.3%
Vol Target 15% Scale position to target 15% annualized volatility, rebalance weekly.	9.9%	-41.6%	26.7%	17.6%	11.1%	7.5%	23.3%	-8.0%	4.0%	15.0%	-1.6%
Volatility Scaled Cash Size cash reserve by realized vol (5-20%); deploy on dips, rebalance monthly.	9.8%	-45.4%	16.9%	16.0%	10.8%	7.8%	24.5%	-8.4%	4.1%	16.2%	-1.3%
Crash Budget Hold 10% cash; deploy at -10%, all-in at -20%, rebuild 1%/mo near ATH.	9.6%	-44.7%	16.5%	15.4%	10.5%	7.8%	24.5%	-8.2%	4.2%	15.9%	-1.3%
Relative Strength vs Bonds SPY if SPY 12m return > TLT 12m return, else cash.	9.5%	-26.3%	19.9%	17.7%	8.4%	5.4%	25.2%	-1.9%	5.2%	13.0%	-0.6%
ATR Trailing Stop 2x Buy and hold with 2x ATR trailing stop (tighter).	9.4%	-45.5%	15.8%	14.9%	11.8%	9.3%	22.2%	-7.1%	4.5%	17.4%	0.8%
200-Day MA 25% Floor 100% invested above 200-day MA, 25% below. Rebalances weekly.	9.4%	-37.2%	27.3%	16.4%	9.5%	6.6%	22.8%	-6.3%	3.4%	13.8%	-1.5%
200-Day MA Risk Toggle 100% invested above 200-day MA, 50% below. Rebalance when >2% off.	9.2%	-39.3%	24.8%	15.6%	9.5%	5.7%	22.2%	-6.2%	3.9%	14.2%	-1.4%
ATR Trailing Stop 3x Buy and hold with 3x ATR trailing stop, re-enter on new high.	9.1%	-44.3%	8.6%	13.0%	8.6%	6.8%	24.5%	-8.3%	3.9%	14.8%	-2.4%
Monthly Seasonality Weight months by historical avg returns: heavy Nov-Apr, light Jun-Sep.	9.0%	-35.7%	18.3%	15.9%	10.5%	6.8%	21.9%	-6.6%	4.2%	14.2%	0.4%
Yield Curve Signal Cash when yield curve inverts (10yr < 5yr), invest when normal.	9.0%	-45.6%	19.9%	12.1%	8.9%	7.0%	24.6%	-8.2%	3.7%	14.3%	-1.0%
Momentum Check 6M Monthly: if SPY 6-month return > 0, invest; otherwise cash.	8.9%	-28.9%	23.2%	11.9%	6.9%	5.1%	20.9%	-2.0%	5.1%	11.6%	0.4%
VIX Buy Spikes 80% base allocation, increase to 100% on VIX spikes > 35.	8.6%	-39.2%	15.8%	13.9%	9.3%	6.8%	21.3%	-6.6%	3.9%	13.6%	-0.9%
Percent From High Scale allocation by distance from 52-week high: 100%/80%/60%/40%.	8.4%	-38.9%	29.4%	16.7%	10.2%	6.0%	21.3%	-6.8%	2.9%	14.1%	-1.4%
ROC Filter Scale position by 6-month rate of change: 100%/75%/0%.	8.0%	-25.8%	24.4%	12.5%	7.6%	5.2%	17.3%	-1.0%	5.0%	12.1%	1.1%
200-Day MA Full Exit 100% invested above 200-day MA, 100% cash below.	7.8%	-34.4%	29.8%	14.1%	7.7%	3.5%	18.9%	-5.6%	3.4%	11.6%	-2.2%
Adaptive MA (KAMA) Buy above Kaufman Adaptive MA, sell below. MA speeds up in trends, slows in choppy markets.	7.7%	-35.4%	19.9%	12.2%	7.6%	4.0%	19.1%	-6.2%	3.2%	12.4%	-1.8%
EMA Crossover 12/26 Buy when 12-day EMA > 26-day EMA, sell on cross down.	7.7%	-38.4%	34.2%	14.3%	9.1%	4.6%	17.7%	-6.5%	2.6%	12.2%	-1.5%
Momentum Check 12M Monthly: invest if 12-month return > 0, else cash.	7.6%	-34.2%	19.9%	13.7%	7.6%	4.0%	20.5%	-5.9%	3.1%	11.7%	-1.6%
Trend + Vol Target Above 200 MA: vol-target 12% position. Below: 100% cash.	7.5%	-31.1%	29.2%	14.5%	7.5%	4.5%	17.6%	-6.0%	2.7%	9.8%	-1.6%
Vol Target 10% Scale position to target 10% annualized volatility, rebalance weekly.	7.5%	-37.2%	20.6%	13.9%	9.2%	6.2%	16.9%	-7.5%	2.8%	11.9%	-1.5%
VIX Regime Switch 100% at VIX<15, 70% at VIX<25, 30% at VIX>25.	7.4%	-36.4%	19.6%	13.1%	8.0%	4.6%	17.9%	-6.7%	2.1%	11.9%	-1.2%
Dual Momentum Invest if SPY 12m return positive AND beats T-bill yield.	7.4%	-34.2%	19.9%	11.8%	6.9%	4.2%	20.3%	-5.9%	3.1%	11.0%	-1.4%
Momentum Check 18M Monthly: invest if 18-month return > 0, else cash.	7.4%	-29.4%	19.9%	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	25.3%	-3.5%	4.4%	11.3%	-0.7%
Sell in May 100% invested Nov–Apr, 100% cash May–Oct.	7.3%	-28.5%	15.1%	14.2%	7.5%	4.4%	18.4%	-3.7%	3.8%	11.1%	-0.3%
Momentum Check 3M Monthly: invest if 3-month return > 0, else cash.	7.3%	-42.5%	40.4%	16.9%	9.7%	5.7%	18.8%	-9.1%	1.5%	11.3%	-2.9%
Golden Cross Delayed Buy on golden cross, sell on death cross, but waits 5 days to confirm signal holds.	7.3%	-38.4%	23.5%	11.4%	7.2%	4.3%	18.2%	-7.0%	2.6%	10.8%	-1.8%
Momentum Check 9M Monthly: invest if 9-month return > 0, else cash.	7.2%	-39.3%	19.9%	13.4%	7.9%	4.4%	19.5%	-7.4%	2.6%	12.0%	-1.9%
150-Day MA Filter 100% invested above 150-day MA, 100% cash below.	7.1%	-34.6%	33.7%	14.4%	7.6%	3.2%	17.7%	-5.0%	3.5%	11.4%	-2.7%
Momentum + Trend Combo Invest when 12M return > 0 AND price > 200-day SMA.	7.0%	-38.0%	21.8%	13.5%	8.0%	4.1%	18.3%	-4.7%	3.6%	11.9%	-1.0%
SMA200 + RSI Pullback Fully invested above 200-day MA. Below it, buys RSI(2) < 5 dips and sells at RSI(2) > 70.	6.8%	-56.2%	25.6%	13.0%	7.7%	4.9%	21.0%	-12.5%	0.3%	12.0%	-4.8%
January Effect 100% invested in January, 50% rest of year.	6.8%	-20.8%	16.2%	10.8%	7.0%	4.4%	14.8%	-2.1%	3.6%	10.2%	0.2%
SMA Crossover 50/200 Buy on golden cross (50-day SMA > 200-day), sell on death cross.	6.7%	-36.6%	21.2%	11.7%	8.2%	5.5%	20.7%	-6.8%	3.3%	12.1%	-1.3%
EMA Crossover 9/21 Buy when 9-day EMA > 21-day EMA, sell on cross down.	6.5%	-33.9%	31.9%	13.6%	7.3%	3.4%	17.4%	-5.1%	2.3%	10.2%	-2.5%
Multi-Factor Regime Score from VIX + trend + momentum → allocate 0-100%.	6.3%	-46.7%	24.5%	14.2%	9.0%	4.8%	18.5%	-10.4%	1.2%	12.8%	-3.2%
Parabolic SAR Buy when trailing SAR flips bullish, sell when it flips bearish.	6.3%	-26.1%	9.1%	9.0%	6.0%	4.2%	16.1%	-3.1%	4.4%	9.6%	-0.8%
Donchian Channel 55 Buy on 55-day high breakout, sell on 55-day low (Turtle-style).	6.3%	-46.0%	29.8%	17.8%	9.7%	2.8%	22.5%	-8.5%	0.1%	14.1%	-3.7%
Bollinger Band Bounce Buy below lower Bollinger Band, sell above upper band.	6.0%	-33.6%	-7.5%	2.7%	5.2%	6.2%	17.9%	-5.5%	4.8%	8.2%	0.5%
ADX Trend Filter Buy when ADX > 25 (strong trend), exit when ADX < 20.	6.0%	-35.5%	18.6%	12.9%	7.1%	3.8%	17.3%	-1.8%	3.9%	10.3%	0.2%
MACD Signal Buy when MACD(12,26) crosses above signal(9), sell on cross below.	5.6%	-29.7%	12.8%	5.6%	3.6%	2.5%	17.8%	-5.3%	2.8%	8.3%	-1.9%
DCA Monthly Invest $386/month equally over the full period.	5.6%	-27.7%	19.5%	16.3%	10.3%	4.3%	23.5%	-4.5%	1.5%	14.8%	-0.2%
100-Day MA Filter 100% invested above 100-day MA, 100% cash below.	5.6%	-42.0%	31.6%	16.7%	8.2%	1.7%	20.9%	-7.7%	0.5%	12.1%	-4.2%
Risk Parity Lite Sizes SPY allocation monthly — lower SPY vol relative to TLT means higher allocation.	4.9%	-23.8%	9.3%	8.6%	6.0%	4.5%	11.1%	-3.7%	2.4%	7.7%	-0.2%
Triple MA 20/50/200 Buy when 20 > 50 > 200 SMA aligned, sell when any cross breaks.	4.9%	-39.6%	30.0%	11.8%	6.8%	2.1%	16.1%	-8.3%	0.7%	8.6%	-3.2%
Williams %R Buy when Williams %R < -80 (oversold), sell > -20 (overbought).	4.8%	-40.9%	6.4%	10.5%	5.2%	2.5%	16.8%	-7.7%	0.5%	6.8%	-3.3%
VIX Mean Reversion Buy when VIX > 30 (fear spike), sell when VIX < 15.	4.8%	-29.4%	-12.5%	1.1%	1.9%	3.8%	20.8%	-2.5%	3.5%	8.7%	0.1%
50-Day MA Filter 100% invested above 50-day MA, 100% cash below.	4.7%	-42.9%	32.9%	13.6%	8.3%	3.0%	17.6%	-7.5%	0.7%	11.7%	-3.2%
RSI(2) Pullback Strict Buy when RSI(2) < 5, sell when RSI(2) > 95 (stricter Connors).	4.5%	-51.1%	11.7%	8.6%	4.4%	3.8%	20.0%	-11.8%	1.3%	6.5%	-4.7%
Donchian Channel 20 Buy on 20-day high breakout, sell on 20-day low.	4.5%	-29.7%	26.1%	11.8%	5.6%	2.3%	16.7%	-4.3%	1.9%	8.8%	-2.4%
RSI(5) Moderate Buy when RSI(5) < 20, sell when RSI(5) > 80.	4.0%	-43.1%	0.5%	3.8%	4.0%	4.8%	15.2%	-10.2%	0.9%	6.3%	-2.5%
RSI Mean Reversion Buy when RSI(14) < 30 (oversold), sell when > 70 (overbought).	3.5%	-19.1%	-7.5%	5.9%	2.8%	3.1%	9.7%	-1.1%	3.4%	5.4%	0.7%
RSI(2) Pullback Buy when RSI(2) < 10, sell when RSI(2) > 90 (Connors-style).	3.3%	-54.2%	2.5%	6.6%	3.0%	2.5%	18.1%	-12.8%	0.2%	5.7%	-5.9%
Turtle System 20-day breakout entry, 10-day low exit, ATR position sizing.	3.2%	-21.7%	14.6%	3.9%	2.8%	2.7%	8.9%	-2.5%	2.1%	5.3%	-0.8%
Chandelier Exit Buy above 22-day high minus 3× ATR, sell below.	2.7%	-42.6%	9.3%	2.9%	1.7%	0.7%	12.9%	-8.2%	0.3%	6.3%	-4.2%
Donchian Channel 10 Buy on 10-day high breakout, sell on 10-day low (Turtle S1).	2.6%	-30.3%	14.8%	6.8%	3.0%	1.6%	11.8%	-3.4%	1.5%	7.0%	-2.7%
Bollinger Squeeze Buy on Bollinger squeeze breakout, sell when price drops below SMA.	1.6%	-27.2%	10.3%	5.5%	3.3%	0.8%	8.7%	-5.3%	-0.3%	4.0%	-2.6%
RSI(2) Pullback Loose Buy when RSI(2) < 15, sell when RSI(2) > 85 (looser Connors).	1.4%	-55.8%	0.5%	3.7%	2.0%	2.5%	13.1%	-12.4%	-1.1%	5.1%	-5.8%

	Trailing CAGR					Rolling 5yr			Rolling 10yr
Strategy	Full	Max DD	1yr	5yr	10yr	Median	Best	Worst	Median	Best	Worst
Buy and Hold Invest 100% on day 1 and never sell.	6.8%	-76.3%	54.5%	16.3%	11.3%	6.0%	34.9%	-18.8%	0.9%	22.9%	-6.6%
ADX Trend Filter Buy when ADX > 25 (strong trend), exit when ADX < 20.	10.2%	-67.1%	44.5%	12.0%	15.6%	13.7%	35.0%	-16.9%	2.4%	21.6%	-3.5%
Monthly Seasonality Weight months by historical avg returns: heavy Nov-Apr, light Jun-Sep.	9.4%	-61.0%	60.5%	18.2%	12.2%	6.9%	32.5%	-12.4%	3.3%	20.2%	-3.1%
Bollinger Band Bounce Buy below lower Bollinger Band, sell above upper band.	9.1%	-48.8%	12.0%	15.2%	9.7%	4.4%	21.9%	-5.7%	4.6%	13.4%	-1.8%
VIX Mean Reversion Buy when VIX > 30 (fear spike), sell when VIX < 15.	8.6%	-57.1%	-17.0%	-1.1%	4.5%	7.8%	34.4%	-4.5%	7.4%	16.6%	1.5%
ATR Trailing Stop 3x Buy and hold with 3x ATR trailing stop, re-enter on new high.	7.0%	-78.6%	57.2%	16.4%	14.0%	8.0%	33.5%	-23.0%	-1.4%	24.7%	-7.6%
Cash Reserve Deep Dip Hold 10% cash; deploy on 10% dip, rebuild only after 21 days at ATH.	6.8%	-76.3%	54.5%	16.3%	11.3%	6.0%	34.9%	-18.8%	0.9%	22.9%	-6.6%
Crash Budget Hold 10% cash; deploy at -10%, all-in at -20%, rebuild 1%/mo near ATH.	6.8%	-76.1%	54.2%	16.2%	11.3%	6.0%	34.7%	-18.8%	0.9%	22.8%	-6.6%
Cash Reserve Slow Rebuild Hold 10% cash; deploy on 5% dip, rebuild 1%/month near ATH.	6.7%	-76.3%	54.3%	16.2%	11.3%	6.0%	34.7%	-18.8%	0.9%	22.8%	-6.6%
Percent From High Scale allocation by distance from 52-week high: 100%/80%/60%/40%.	6.7%	-60.2%	75.9%	13.1%	7.8%	3.6%	25.5%	-11.9%	2.0%	15.3%	-4.2%
ROC Filter Scale position by 6-month rate of change: 100%/75%/0%.	6.4%	-65.0%	60.7%	12.6%	6.8%	3.8%	30.1%	-14.8%	0.8%	14.9%	-6.2%
VIX Buy Spikes 80% base allocation, increase to 100% on VIX spikes > 35.	6.2%	-70.1%	46.2%	14.2%	9.9%	5.2%	28.2%	-15.5%	1.3%	18.7%	-5.2%
January Effect 100% invested in January, 50% rest of year.	6.2%	-39.5%	35.9%	11.0%	7.8%	4.1%	23.6%	-6.8%	2.4%	14.8%	-2.1%
Parabolic SAR Buy when trailing SAR flips bullish, sell when it flips bearish.	6.2%	-46.2%	38.8%	4.0%	3.5%	4.2%	20.4%	-9.0%	2.7%	13.0%	-1.5%
200-Day MA Risk Toggle 100% invested above 200-day MA, 50% below. Rebalance when >2% off.	6.0%	-66.8%	59.2%	12.4%	8.2%	4.5%	28.9%	-14.9%	1.1%	18.4%	-5.0%
Sell in May 100% invested Nov–Apr, 100% cash May–Oct.	6.0%	-64.4%	54.1%	15.4%	4.6%	0.9%	28.1%	-9.3%	1.5%	12.0%	-7.0%
SMA Crossover 50/200 Buy on golden cross (50-day SMA > 200-day), sell on death cross.	5.9%	-59.6%	54.5%	8.1%	3.9%	0.4%	26.0%	-8.7%	2.5%	13.8%	-3.9%
Volatility Scaled Cash Size cash reserve by realized vol (5-20%); deploy on dips, rebalance monthly.	5.8%	-75.9%	48.6%	14.6%	10.0%	5.1%	30.9%	-18.4%	0.2%	20.6%	-7.0%
ATR Trailing Stop 2x Buy and hold with 2x ATR trailing stop (tighter).	5.8%	-74.2%	44.5%	9.0%	9.4%	8.1%	29.0%	-19.6%	0.4%	20.2%	-6.0%
Golden Cross Delayed Buy on golden cross, sell on death cross, but waits 5 days to confirm signal holds.	5.7%	-57.0%	54.5%	7.3%	3.8%	0.6%	25.0%	-8.8%	2.9%	13.9%	-3.8%
Momentum + Trend Combo Invest when 12M return > 0 AND price > 200-day SMA.	5.6%	-74.1%	79.3%	15.6%	7.2%	3.6%	30.2%	-13.1%	-0.6%	12.6%	-7.2%
DCA Monthly Invest $413/month equally over the full period.	5.3%	-50.9%	53.1%	16.1%	10.7%	2.4%	34.4%	-8.6%	-0.2%	20.3%	-3.0%
Momentum Check 9M Monthly: invest if 9-month return > 0, else cash.	5.2%	-65.5%	54.5%	11.8%	8.0%	3.3%	28.7%	-15.2%	2.0%	16.8%	-5.4%
200-Day MA 25% Floor 100% invested above 200-day MA, 25% below. Rebalances weekly.	5.2%	-66.0%	66.5%	10.9%	5.7%	3.0%	25.6%	-13.2%	0.5%	14.7%	-5.8%
Momentum Check 6M Monthly: if SPY 6-month return > 0, invest; otherwise cash.	5.1%	-65.9%	63.2%	9.4%	6.0%	4.3%	27.8%	-14.7%	1.1%	15.8%	-5.7%
Multi-Factor Regime Score from VIX + trend + momentum → allocate 0-100%.	5.1%	-65.4%	70.3%	12.2%	6.0%	1.6%	27.9%	-13.2%	-0.2%	14.1%	-6.1%
MACD Signal Buy when MACD(12,26) crosses above signal(9), sell on cross below.	5.0%	-44.6%	38.8%	3.0%	4.1%	1.8%	17.8%	-7.2%	1.8%	12.5%	-2.8%
Yield Curve Signal Cash when yield curve inverts (10yr < 5yr), invest when normal.	4.9%	-76.3%	54.5%	9.2%	7.9%	5.1%	28.5%	-18.8%	0.2%	19.1%	-6.5%
Vol Target 15% Scale position to target 15% annualized volatility, rebalance weekly.	4.7%	-59.0%	40.3%	9.7%	6.5%	2.8%	20.1%	-12.8%	-0.4%	10.2%	-5.6%
Relative Strength vs Bonds SPY if SPY 12m return > TLT 12m return, else cash.	4.7%	-67.8%	54.5%	20.6%	5.3%	-1.2%	39.9%	-10.9%	0.4%	13.0%	-9.0%
150-Day MA Filter 100% invested above 150-day MA, 100% cash below.	4.6%	-69.8%	99.9%	14.2%	6.1%	2.2%	24.3%	-14.1%	-1.3%	13.6%	-7.1%
RSI Mean Reversion Buy when RSI(14) < 30 (oversold), sell when > 70 (overbought).	4.6%	-49.1%	-4.0%	9.3%	6.4%	3.3%	19.0%	-6.7%	2.3%	11.5%	-2.5%
50-Day MA Filter 100% invested above 50-day MA, 100% cash below.	4.4%	-58.9%	76.5%	8.9%	5.3%	4.1%	22.0%	-11.6%	0.1%	14.3%	-3.8%
200-Day MA Full Exit 100% invested above 200-day MA, 100% cash below.	4.2%	-62.0%	62.7%	7.9%	4.5%	2.5%	22.9%	-11.9%	0.1%	13.3%	-4.7%
Momentum Check 12M Monthly: invest if 12-month return > 0, else cash.	4.2%	-77.9%	54.5%	16.6%	7.8%	2.7%	35.3%	-15.6%	-1.3%	15.0%	-8.6%
Momentum Check 18M Monthly: invest if 18-month return > 0, else cash.	4.1%	-71.5%	54.5%	12.4%	7.2%	0.9%	30.4%	-13.1%	-0.3%	14.4%	-5.0%
Chandelier Exit Buy above 22-day high minus 3× ATR, sell below.	3.5%	-54.7%	56.1%	4.2%	3.9%	1.0%	17.0%	-10.6%	0.5%	12.3%	-5.9%
VIX Regime Switch 100% at VIX<15, 70% at VIX<25, 30% at VIX>25.	3.4%	-67.7%	41.8%	13.1%	7.5%	3.4%	25.2%	-15.5%	-1.8%	15.5%	-6.4%
Risk Parity Lite Sizes SPY allocation monthly — lower SPY vol relative to TLT means higher allocation.	3.3%	-35.3%	19.1%	6.6%	5.3%	3.9%	14.8%	-5.4%	1.7%	7.4%	-1.3%
Triple MA 20/50/200 Buy when 20 > 50 > 200 SMA aligned, sell when any cross breaks.	3.3%	-55.0%	82.7%	11.3%	7.3%	1.7%	23.0%	-12.0%	0.9%	15.3%	-3.8%
Dual Momentum Invest if SPY 12m return positive AND beats T-bill yield.	3.3%	-77.9%	54.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.3%	30.6%	-15.6%	-1.6%	13.0%	-8.6%
Vol Target 10% Scale position to target 10% annualized volatility, rebalance weekly.	3.2%	-46.8%	25.8%	6.8%	4.6%	2.3%	13.5%	-9.2%	-0.4%	7.0%	-3.9%
EMA Crossover 9/21 Buy when 9-day EMA > 21-day EMA, sell on cross down.	3.1%	-56.0%	33.1%	0.9%	0.5%	1.4%	22.2%	-10.2%	2.1%	10.4%	-5.3%
Donchian Channel 20 Buy on 20-day high breakout, sell on 20-day low.	2.5%	-72.1%	71.1%	7.0%	3.3%	-0.6%	21.3%	-15.0%	-1.7%	12.0%	-7.6%
RSI(5) Moderate Buy when RSI(5) < 20, sell when RSI(5) > 80.	2.4%	-70.3%	21.6%	9.1%	10.3%	2.2%	21.1%	-19.0%	-4.1%	10.9%	-7.9%
EMA Crossover 12/26 Buy when 12-day EMA > 26-day EMA, sell on cross down.	2.2%	-65.5%	51.0%	2.3%	0.3%	-1.8%	24.2%	-13.2%	-0.8%	9.3%	-8.8%
Trend + Vol Target Above 200 MA: vol-target 12% position. Below: 100% cash.	2.0%	-47.5%	34.3%	4.1%	0.5%	-0.8%	12.2%	-7.5%	-0.9%	4.0%	-4.0%
Donchian Channel 55 Buy on 55-day high breakout, sell on 55-day low (Turtle-style).	1.0%	-83.9%	81.9%	8.7%	2.6%	-2.9%	27.2%	-23.5%	-5.2%	10.9%	-12.9%
100-Day MA Filter 100% invested above 100-day MA, 100% cash below.	0.1%	-81.2%	64.0%	1.8%	0.2%	-2.9%	22.8%	-20.0%	-4.8%	9.4%	-10.3%
Donchian Channel 10 Buy on 10-day high breakout, sell on 10-day low (Turtle S1).	0.1%	-66.9%	26.6%	-7.0%	-4.5%	-1.7%	16.0%	-17.5%	-1.1%	9.7%	-8.5%
Turtle System 20-day breakout entry, 10-day low exit, ATR position sizing.	-0.1%	-47.8%	21.4%	0.5%	-1.7%	-2.5%	8.4%	-8.1%	-2.0%	2.0%	-5.6%
Williams %R Buy when Williams %R < -80 (oversold), sell > -20 (overbought).	-0.7%	-71.1%	-2.3%	13.9%	7.3%	-1.1%	22.1%	-19.9%	-5.9%	10.6%	-10.9%
Bollinger Squeeze Buy on Bollinger squeeze breakout, sell when price drops below SMA.	-1.0%	-18.0%	-5.5%	-2.3%	-1.8%	-0.3%	1.7%	-3.9%	-1.0%	0.0%	-1.9%
Adaptive MA (KAMA) Buy above Kaufman Adaptive MA, sell below. MA speeds up in trends, slows in choppy markets.	-1.0%	-81.2%	62.5%	2.2%	1.7%	-2.2%	17.4%	-21.5%	-5.3%	11.4%	-9.9%
RSI(2) Pullback Strict Buy when RSI(2) < 5, sell when RSI(2) > 95 (stricter Connors).	-1.7%	-78.2%	18.7%	2.6%	-0.5%	-2.4%	17.5%	-18.9%	-4.3%	5.4%	-12.1%
Momentum Check 3M Monthly: invest if 3-month return > 0, else cash.	-1.9%	-84.6%	60.1%	3.5%	1.2%	-4.5%	17.6%	-23.9%	-6.1%	10.4%	-12.5%
RSI(2) Pullback Buy when RSI(2) < 10, sell when RSI(2) > 90 (Connors-style).	-2.7%	-77.0%	4.2%	-5.1%	-5.2%	-4.4%	20.0%	-17.9%	-5.1%	3.2%	-12.6%
SMA200 + RSI Pullback Fully invested above 200-day MA. Below it, buys RSI(2) < 5 dips and sells at RSI(2) > 70.	-2.9%	-89.8%	43.8%	4.6%	-1.2%	-6.8%	23.1%	-24.6%	-8.1%	8.7%	-16.6%
RSI(2) Pullback Loose Buy when RSI(2) < 15, sell when RSI(2) > 85 (looser Connors).	-4.0%	-80.1%	3.8%	-3.1%	-5.4%	-5.0%	17.8%	-17.7%	-5.0%	2.3%	-14.0%

Gold vs. silver: the same strategies, opposite verdicts

Gold trends smoothly, so nothing beats holding it. Every timing strategy underperforms gold's buy-and-hold on return — the same pattern the cross-market study found. The only thing a trend or rotation filter buys you is a smaller drawdown (the best cut gold's ~-46% buy-and-hold drawdown to the mid-20s%), never extra return.

Silver is violent, so timing pays. Buy-and-hold silver suffered a -76% max drawdown — a punishing ride. That volatility is exactly what mean-reversion and trend strategies feed on: several beat buy-and-hold on return, and the strongest roughly halve the drawdown. Silver is the rare asset where getting out of the way actually adds return, not just comfort.

Point-in-time snapshot; figures refresh daily as prices update. Same engine as the equities page: next-day open execution, 5 bps friction per trade, 0% on cash. Each metal runs over its full ETF history.