Inflation Rate Predictions

[0:00] the fact that rates have come back up means that we're likely to see some more disinflationary pressure, deflation in some things, disinflation in others, and ultimately that will be helpful.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:51] I think inflation has peaked. Again, oil will be a part of that story if I'm wrong and oil spikes the other way. Uh inflation can eat up some more. But really, the you know, we've seen in the recent inflation prints that there is some beginnings of rolling over in inflation... I would argue that inflation is basically going to surprise people on the downside going forward.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:25] next year by the end of next year you could be looking at deflation. That could be our concern.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:02] that's where you create the hyperinflationary environment that shuts down the printing press... and I argue that next time around this time we have deflation next time around because of the response to that deflationary bust we're going to have hyperinflation by the time we get to the early 2030s so that such that you could have 25% inflation in this country maybe worse elsewhere

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:01] consumers expect 4% inflation. They're going to get something much higher than that. Uh so, you know, the consumers are more accurate than the Fed in their inflation forecast, but they're still, you know, missing it by by quite a bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:30] Inflation is going to be rising faster than rates. So real rates are going to be falling the entire time that nominal rates are rising.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:33] all this stuff is going to be a lot more expensive if the stuff that you are buying today costs 10% more or 20% more in a year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:23] my fear is that we don't see 10% inflation, I don't think that's going to happen, even 7%, but do we stay between 3 and 4% for the foreseeable future, which adds up year-over-year to massive price increases over 5 or 10 years?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:07] And of course they're going to pull the lever and then we're going to get higher inflation and then gold's going to go that way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:54] if I had a gun to my head, I think we're on a path of economic deglobalization right now that's accelerated in the last two years. And my base case for an underwrite is that that is a trend of reshoring and nearshoring which is by the way extremely inflationary um to my mind

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:35] on the other end of this is going to be what I've coined the term hyper stagflation because I don't think you get much real growth at all, but you get a tremendous amount of inflation when they have to monetize trillions and trillions of dollars a year just to keep the just to keep the lights on in the banking system.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:36] Declining economic growth and rising inflation. And the higher inflation goes, the higher gold prices should go.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:10] Yes, I think we are. Um, you know, we're looking to merge onto that highway of hyperinflation and uh with the, you know, and a lot of that relates back to the the power of compound interest. with a large debt. That's symptomatic of all hyperinflations is large debt.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:37] inflation will I expect to continue and maybe get worse in 2027. So, you're always slightly behind the curve.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:38] you you said, "Is inflation still worrying me?" And the answer to that is yes, it still is worrying me. And if you look at the consumer price index, it's 3.4% 4% year-over-year, but the sixmonth annualized rates 5.1%. So it it's the the underlying trend is one of acceleration in the CPI.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[43:42] betting that inflation is going to be brought back to target. Uh, and uh, is not has not been a good bet.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:04] the 5-year inflation rate. What is the inflation rate going to be between now in 2031? And that one is almost 1% higher than it was precoid. So yes, the tips market is pricing in more inflation for the next 5 years. We've had elevated inflation since 2021. So, it's been 5 years. It's saying for another 5 years, we're going to have elevated inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:38] I think they can keep interest rates high and that's kind of what we've been seeing. I mean, interest rates have been somewhat elevated for a while. Inflation's been elevated for a while and this can just last a lot longer than people will think.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:38] The market is saying yes you should be worried about gasoline and fuel but the ultimate outcome is not that gasoline and fuel prices spill over into services costs or some other categories... the increase in gasoline and fuel prices in the short run lead to businesses cutting back employers or cutting back on employees and labor market and income

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:38] It just doesn't look like that's going to happen the next few quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:38] it's up 27 basis points versus the 3.40% headline CPI year-over-year that was just reported. So, that's the next number they're going to get.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:32] this idea that inflation is somehow going to go down to 2%. To me, it's just unfathomable.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:06] inflation is is three and change and heading up, not down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:46] the inflation trade, I think, is going to continue to be a challenge. I'm not calling for you know massive increase in inflation... but as we know this inflation has come because of you know fiscal spending, overspending, large deficits

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:44] that inflationary pressures from the oil market will have more time to seep into the uh inflation uh rate excluding energy. uh you know like diesel prices as energy but that gets into transportation costs and gets into agricultural costs and so on.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:49] I think there'll be another rate hike at least before this year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:08] they foresee inflation being high and higher going out you know, the rest of this year and next year. So they're probably seeing accelerating price inflation and they don't want to you know, cut rates right now

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:26] And that's why I'm also expecting um higher in uh price inflation and currency depreciation uh in the global economy.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:14] And there's every anticipation that it's going to continue to come down. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has announced that portfolio management fees, which I've been complaining about forever as being this huge input to the core PCE is I'm like, 'Okay, wait. We're saying that assets under management because the stock market is going up, should be reflected as consumer demand in the PPI and flow through to the PCE. That doesn't make any sense. The BEA is correcting for that.'

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:31] I think he's chasing after inflation that's or at least core inflation that's not going to stop coming down. It's on that path.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:43] the ultimate consequences uh of that type of behavior is that in general there's either a crack up in the economy uh where the economy goes into a sort of deflationary depression or where as a result of government debt and obligations the economy um becomes exposed to higher and higher rates of inflation. or even hyperinflation in the economy when uh participants all become generally aware of the fact that the government's never going to pay it back

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:18] So inflation is here to stay and until it collapses. And what I fear now is maybe that collapse is not too far off.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:26] We think that the next print that comes out on the CPI will start with a four based upon the the oil movement and stay above four unless something changes with the commodity complex stays above four all the way through March.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:17] even though oil is spiking and we have this this calculation that tells us that will mean inflation will go up. We have to understand that somebody needs to carry that inflation on... I would be more worried about the opposite, which is that when the inflationary impulse goes through the system, what does that create down the road?

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:32] You're going to see inflation stay elevated, especially because the Iran war and the closing of the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia is going to put upward pressure on oil prices as well. Those are going to be significant. They have not been reflected yet in the consumer price inflation numbers. They will come out for September, October numbers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:01] I believe inflation is is baked in the cake as long as we are running massive deficits and the debt continues to expand. That's what I believe. I think it's just pure denominator. More US dollars out there equals higher prices.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:44] likely uh in September, we're 11 days into September. That is going to translate to more than 5% increase in gasoline prices which will add uh roughly uh 0.2 percentage point on headline CPI. So in September uh the headline CPI is going to be probably at least 0.4%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:14] headline CPI could possibly fall below even 2%. if if prices uh if if gasoline price were or or crude oil were to come down to a more regular 70 or 60%. Um so and and headline CPI falls really fast as they rise very fast.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:55] inflation is going to keep getting worse. It's not it's not going to go down

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:49] Abs. Absolutely. Um delayed, extended, and it'll be more extreme now. So, it's similar to 2008. We've had this unusual spike in crude oil and energy because of the decision of one man to invade Iran... That's created pretty severe inflation, but it's short-term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:17] by the end of the year there might be demonstrable progress on inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:24] Core CPI, when Friday comes around, when we get the August number, it's more more likely to drop to 2.3% year-over-year core.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:24] since those what those numbers have been taken from since then inflation's even become stronger because we've had such a big bump up in key things like oil, gas, diesel, and all. So the next month's numbers could be even worse than that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:03] everywhere you see a choke point, um, you're going to see potential um, flare-ups... if the US military is on the decline, if the US Navy can no longer police these choke points, um, then all bets are off and we're going to see a return to piracy, a return to might is right, and that's that's inflationary.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:08] I'm starting to see more and more articles say that they, you know, they're worried about um food price inflation this this winter. Not necessarily just because the input costs are going up, but it might just be supply.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:14] I would say inflation is here to stay because government spending and debt isn't going anywhere. So when we look at the fact that we just passed $40 trillion in debt and we're going into debt at a rate of $2 trillion a year, that means in just 5 years we'll be at 50 trillion.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:29] As more money goes into circulation, you can bet that inflation's going to go up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:34] 80% of the time inflation slows down... after midterms when the party in power loses control of the legislative process and the executive branch

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:12] I also believe strongly that it's going to get out of hand, not necessarily into a hyperinflationary collapse, but enough of a problem where they keep throwing more and more band-aids, and the band-aids don't work.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:06] our House view is that inflation's expected to stay elevated for the next, you know, handful of months and then ultimately decline um in early 2027. uh but expectations from my my colleagues in the Schwab Center for Financial Research are still for it to hold above 2% for the next handful of quarters

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:45] our inflation rate to be to be generous, to be conservative, is at least 10% a year. That means anyone listening to this, whatever their wealth, whatever their sophistication, whatever their view on gold, you're losing 10% to the invisible theft of inflation as you're sitting here every year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:38] We're expecting inflation to stay persistently above 3%, possibly move up toward four or 5% on on an ongoing basis at least for the next several quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:17] Our theory is is that rates will be generally higher the next 10 years by pretty good margin over what they were the last 10 years. So, let's say that we think uh inflation will run between three and four over time. And there may be periods when it's two and a half. I understand that, but I'm saying over time, if it runs between three and four

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:27] what the Fed is doing here is is going to end up hurting the average consumer because it's going to make inflation spike higher

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:46] I think that the inflation numbers are going to surprise to the downside for the next several months. I think the economy will continue to grow but below potential which is going to put overall downward pressure on aggre aggregate prices.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:57] Yeah, I I do I do think it'll give reason for another hike in prices that as you allude to uh don't get ratcheted back when input prices fall back.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:30] We're going to have higher inflation. We're going to have uh greater volatility in inflation. The trend in interest rates is going to be higher. And uh we're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:21] inflation won't be super high, but it'll be one or two points over the interest rate level. And what that will do is just over time, it's a long-term thing. Over time, that will eat away at it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:51] this is also, I think, you know, it substantiates what I've been saying about stagflation being my outlook here. We've got weakening labor um weak or weakening labor conditions not just in the US, but in many countries. Um you know, who who knows about Chinese data, but that the growth in China has recently sparked concern. There's There's plenty of economic weakness out there, and the war certainly doesn't help. You know, the oil squeeze doesn't help, and you've got stubbornly high inflation at the same time. So, sure looks like stagflation to me.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:06] wage inflation moderates, but you know, inflation-adjusted wages are directly tied to productivity. So much depends on the productivity story. um uh Fed chair Kevin Warsh believes that AI is already and will continue to boost productivity. I'm I'm in that camp

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:44] I don't think it's going up beyond 3 or 4% because you have Warsh who's now uh a semi-monetarist. I think you'll see the money supply, maybe he'll bring the money supply growth rate down uh to that two two to three for maybe four five percent at the most.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:02] they will have to print money for all this re-industrialization, all this competing with China, all this trying to catch up with them, all this rolling out AI and they'll have to print it and that will mean there'll be five to I don't know 5 to 10 um rate of inflation coming down the pike. I I think it would be 5 to seven

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:51] Inflation's coming. It's not going away. It's going to get worse. And uh that's what the traders realize.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:44] we haven't even begun to see the effects of the the oil induced price inflation which takes 6 months to run through.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:07] I suspect that it would go higher uh a little higher. Not a lot maybe, but even to higher maybe even the next quarter or two, but again, that's just a guess. But I could see it next year um all of that stuff breaking down maybe and and and you going back to lower levels. But I just don't think that's going to happen in the next 6 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:28] if the next CPI number remains closer to 3%, especially when you take out food and energy, um, then he's got an explaining to do.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:36] There's no inflation, right? And all I am suggesting is let's get rates down to the neutral level.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:41] We're going to see the CPI come in next week and it's going to tick higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] inflation the costs of living uh increases is running at between 7 and 12%. Depending they have children and where they live and and then but is not 3 or 4%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:27] I think we have a short-term inflation problem that will in fact moderate.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[43:23] I think also he's going to try to get to the target rate of inflation which they haven't done in over five years by simply redefining the statistics. uh that's been the last refuge of uh central bankers that when they they can't actually make markets behave the way they really want then they just change the information that's being put out. In this case statistics uh they'll just rememeasure consumer prices so it appears that they're closer to the 2% target.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:58] thinking about inflation going, you know, higher than it's ever been before, higher than 20%, and thinking about the unemployment rate going well into double digits

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:31] I don't think you're getting any relief really. If you look at the CRB index, I don't think I don't think you're get any real relief to the middle class from falling prices at all. That's it's way out in the future.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:44] Inflation simplistically has probably peaked. I'm going to put that in my headline for my my August outlook for commodities. I think inflation's peaked at 4.2%. That's CPI.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:51] I think we're moving here into a stackflation scenario. uh persistent inflation especially due to um these these high oil prices the ongoing war the high level of uncertainty the the the international war for commodities which the European zone doesn't have too much of and at the same time continuing the the to expand the money supply yeah that's creating stackflation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:21] We're going to two and a half and that's where we're going to stabilize in my view for basically the reasons I described and that we're not going to have zero goods prices any longer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:53] by the time the Fed meets in September, they're likely to have very benign inflation readings. June was not the aberration. Uh June is probably what the numbers are going to look like. Not quite as negative on the headline, but the core numbers, all those measures I was talking about, rents, uh non-ousing services, those are basically all 0.1 point ones last month. That's likely to persist.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:46] By just setting up task forces and waiting for another 6 to 9 months to make a decision he's going to make the inflation situation significantly worse by the beginning of 2027.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:12] it seems to me that prices are rising upwards of 5% per year, maybe more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:49] the inflation rate which for a long time was between 1 and 1/2 to 2 and 1/2 is now gradually moving upward. And we're going to see it move up over time into a 3 and 1/2 to 4 and 1/2% range.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:09] now we are in a totally new environment where interest rates and inflation is is is starting to look uh like the start of a new uptrend

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:53] America on a balance sheet income statement basis is insolvent. And so the only way it can get out of this is through inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:36] I don't think there's a path to get inflation back down to 2% without the equity market crashing.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:49] PCE coming out I think it's in two weeks towards the very end of this month is supposed to fall from 4.1 to 3.7 with a core going to I think 32 or 33.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:49] There's a wave of inflation building. There's a wave of stagflation building. Central banks will find that very difficult to deal with. They will not be willing to raise interest rates further into a slowdown.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:11] Our core inflation is lower out 12 months. And uh we think the Fed is jawbony that they're going to hike, but we ultimately believe they're going to end up cutting rates once the global slowdown starts to manifest.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:35] we are going to see inflation trend back to that maybe not quite 2% or below but 2 to 3% range by 2027 2028.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[31:59] I think we'll re the inflation genie will remain out of the bottle in the United States.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:46] inflation's going to come down because the money supply isn't growing. And inflation comes down, interest rates will come down. That's that's what's going to happen. In- inflation isn't going to go up. It's going to come down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:35] Well, we had talked about double digit inflation by the end of the year. Um and as we talked about last week, you know, diesel fuel prices are up 30% from January. That's not going to go back down because diesel fuel supplies are tight right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:56] I would be surprised if next month the rate of inflation go even goes a little lower because you know a driving factor on that was oil and oil in June it was really cheaper in in early July early cheaper than it was say a month or two months before that. So I I wouldn't be surprised if if when you come out with the next one that it in July that it's not lower too a little bit.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:05] the path of least resistance is inflating our way out of the system. And so uh that is the more likely path that we are likely to see here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:26] the Fed cannot control real assets as we're talking about gold now and silver and copper and aluminum and rare earth and uranium oil. It has it has no ability to control the supply chain at any level. So the idea of it being an arbit any central bank of of inflation by the tightening of some money in the long end is is is a bit it's it's a bit arbitrary.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:54] I think is going to guarantee us a huge inflation bounce in the third, fourth quarter

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:08] I've been of the belief for the last couple years that uh 3 to 4% is the new inflation normal uh no longer 1 to 2%. And I still think that's the case.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:41] The hyperinflation will eventually arrive because look at what the debt is doing in every country. It's going through the roof and that's printing money and it's going to come back to roost in Main Street with groceries, you know, all taking a hike in the near future and it will continue to accelerate till it's people are really going to notice um in uh in the coming year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:20] the inflation numbers that just came out that the Fed was looking at, the headlines were scared about are going to creep down because they're not pricing in what was $110 to $138 oil for that aberration in that quarter. And then going down to 95 110. They're going to start to price in that 70 80 level, that's going to bring numbers down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:33] The government will tell you that the dollar is losing its purchasing power to the extent of 2 and 1/2% a year. The real number for your family is eight.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:14] inflation numbers that were just posted in the last one or two prints are going to come down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:22] Inflation is not going away. But that it's not going to be in that sort of high 3 4% range when we see the next prints.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:45] the in the CPI number could be weak uh for July and August

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:02] I think I think we have uh an a problem with underlying inflation. I think underlying inflation is around 3%. I think if anything it's accelerating rather than uh rather than decelerating. Um I think the risk uh of uh an acceleration of underlying inflation is greater than the risk of a deceleration in underlying inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:27] when that gets washed out, we're going to see zero inflation for the rest of our lives in the developed world.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:10] At some point people will realize that inflation is not here. There's no inflation... So there is actually a disinflationary impulse from this... there's no inflation coming. This is completely wrong. Completely wrong.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:38] We're currently annualizing at 8% on headline CPI on a three-month annualized basis. That's going to come back down and and we're going to be off, you know, we're, you know, the markets have appropriately priced that that's going to come back down

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:08] They are forecasting that bond yields have peaked with the inflation number that peak that that came out really hot last month. So, there's they expect that inflation's going to cool off as we go through the rest of year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:42] our forecast for this year for core PCE is three spot three. Worst just guided us to that exact number two weeks ago.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[37:43] Again, we're going to see negative prints on headline CPI. It's I mean, it's just it's it's going to happen.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:40] Yeah, know I could certainly see that happening certainly with oil prices having come down um in the last month or two already. That's going to be the big swing factor in the headline number which is what these numbers are. Um and and so I think there were some other factors that are probably keeping the CPI up a little bit lately. So I think yeah, we could see a little bit of slowing from the 4.2% rate, which is, you know, pretty high for as these things go um in the next month or two.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:41] even housing inflation rental you know prices in aggregate have been slowing down quite a bit for a couple years now um and I think that's probably going to continue as well um just from you know less demand from from you know lower immigration and the fact there has been at least some building going on

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:02] I think the highest odds are, you know, you're going to be in an inflationary boom.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:01] I think that we're going to continue to see inflation be sticky, if not a problem, as real world assets get repriced

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[19:00] there's an underlying inflation problem... the dotted line is the correct number. It may be coming down, but it's not coming down fast and so underlying inflation pressures are clearly there and therefore the Federal Reserve has got to act.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:13] I think they're going to try to work it that hey, 3% isn't so bad. Because it'll be four or five at that point in time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:37] he's probably going to word out this 2% target. That it's either going to become a number that yet determined or something higher than 2%, and that way it will be more understandable to accept a higher rate of inflation than for 6 years keep missing a number that you don't get close to achieving.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:43] there is a bulge of inflation that's coming even if things normalize and peace is achieved

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:01] there's a bunch of reasons why inflation isn't going away and for people who just say well the biddles conflict is done or at least dying going down uh and therefore inflation won't be an issue. Uh I think they're missing some of the plot and it's a pretty big plot.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:08] we're going to have inflation because that's how we pay for government. And the Fed is going to enable it under Walsh just the way it's enabled it under his predecessors. Uh, the gold market, the silver market don't get that yet. They will.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:39] I think inflation is going to surprise to the downside. And all the reasons for the Fed to swing hawkish is they're going to pivot the other way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:35] Do you think we will see the definition of inflation adjusted? Yes. It has to happen, Julia. How else do we get there? You know, if you're Kevin Warsh and you want to minimize rate hikes so you don't tank the economy, well, the only way to do that is to change the definition.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:24] I do think again as long as the ceasefire continues, that that should ease in the back half of this year. That we no longer have that kind of rising inflation uh that we that we saw uh in the past few months. And there's really no signs that we're we're we kind of have a breakaway inflation like we saw in in 2021, 2022... I think inflation's still probably going to be stickier above 2%, uh but I I I think it could be correct that it it it goes kind of sideways to down uh in the coming months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:57] I think I think we've got inflation baked into the next 5 years at least, maybe longer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:25] the probability that we have a pretty nasty inflation shock later in the year, the summer driving season with a World Cup... you've got the summer driving season. You've got a lot of key supply chain disruptions that all around the world and like it's just that sulfuric acid situation that are going to create this like inflation bounce through the year and that's going to move money probably from growth stocks over toward value stocks.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:08] For those that talk about in you know technology with AI is going to be deflationary that you know we we're in a long-term deflationary pull. That's over. That is over. This is a different inflation cycle. You cannot expect us to go back to that other cycle that we had from 2010 to 2020 because we're not showing any indications of that. And now we're starting to move back up with inflation again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[14:24] even if oil price doesn't go up it is going to take a while for inflation to come under control. All of those say to me in answer to your question that interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:28] We do have the opportunity, should things work out, uh, to see inflation move back down. But even if it moves back down, David, if if the Fed's going to truly maintain a 2% target and we're at 4.2%. Um, it might, let's say it takes it to 3%. We're still well above the Fed's target.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:25] inflation comes in two waves. The second wave is always worse than the first. So, for anyone out there who thought, 'Oh, 2021, right? What we saw a couple years ago, that was the worst of the inflation.' Buckle up because you cannot continue to print the way we've printed.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:04] We are entering an era of permanent inflation. The the Federal Reserve doesn't even wait for the uh the rates the inflation rate to come down to that 2% target before they start cutting rates. They're so anxious to cut rates. So that means more inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:22] If you believe, as I believe, that the debt and deficits that we face in the United States and Canada will increase rather than decrease over time. The funding mechanism, the only funding mechanism that seems to me to be available is artificially low interest rates to lower the interest component on the debt and quantitative easing, which is to say spending.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:38] That 4.2% will probably be a peak. David I remember well it was almost it was July of 2008 inflation's CPI peaked at 5.6%... The key thing I like to point out is since that bottom in crude oil and so in CPI in 2009 at minus 2% we've bottomed around that level or zero three times. I think we're going to do it again by this time next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:11] We have 4% you know on CPI today PCE and core PCE coming in even you know stronger than those types of things. Uh you know Fed's going to be forced to raise interest rates

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[39:30] I do agree with it and I think I I mean I don't have a big inflation view because I think that we are going to be seeing disinflation uh in the service sector uh which dominates the economy but I think we're going to see inflation in the good sector or the product sector uh more broadly speaking

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:24] The uptick or rather the bottom was before the war. So both CPI and PCE already started to rebound before the war and they're just going higher. So I don't think, you know, I don't think it holds any water to say, oh, it's just transitory. Oh, it's just war.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:18] in this type of environment, if we think the true rate of inflation is going to be skewing more 3 to 5 versus the more historical, at least targeted benchmark of two, I think that you should be looking at a minimum hurdle bench rate benchmark rate of return of around 10% in these assets.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:37] I I think so. I mean, with commodity prices so high, particularly with energy prices so high, um I think that's the environment that we're in. Um and so unless something changes really on that front, David, I think we're going to have, you know, inflation numbers that are slightly more elevated than certainly expectations were at the beginning of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:17] I actually think there's a pretty decent chance that it's not a break the glass big print this time around, but that it's more of a run it hot big print. In other words, you know, he cuts the rates, the credit starts to grow again. You know, we get all this AI buildout. Unemployment stays quite low. Um, but we have serious serious inflation and the Fed just says, 'Well, you know, we're not going to deal with that because we've got this industrial policy.'

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:21:57] we're going to have higher inflation and that the knock-on effects of the bottlenecking and the even just slowing it down assuming it starts to move to some degree. Um the increase in costs that is as we mentioned the things like insurance cover shipping and everything else uh is going to have a ripple effect of stagflation um right the way through and that's going to make everybody's living's costs a lot higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[36:05] even if it changes tomorrow you're still going to have at least a month or two of filtering through over 3% inflation. The Fed likes it below 2%. I personally think that's a hard number to to get to

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[23:03] we can see inflation basically keep rates where they are in the short end, but in the long end we can see more bond buying.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:27] I think that inflation will prove itself to be far stickier in part because the hormuse crisis is not that existential. In part because consumers can weather 90 to $100 oil.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:52] the inflation genie is out of the bottle in the United States and it's not going to be put back anytime soon. Th this will be with Trump and one of Trump's big Achilles heels throughout uh at least in the foreseeable future. So that means maybe throughout a big chunk of his second term, he he's going to have this inflation problem around his neck.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:01] we're still going to see much higher inflation this year. Julia, I haven't changed that prognosis. Double digits still. Yeah, I think so because we're going to see shortages in some really important commodities, things like fertilizer for the farm for example, and that cost is going to get passed through consumers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:00] yes yes and yes... we ultimately have to figure out whether or not the Kevin Walsh Federal Reserve is going to look through uh these sticky inflation pressures... The only thing that's negative is sticky inflation. And in our opinion, we think the sticky inflation thing may cause some problems uh once we get uh maybe you know um you know may cause some problems over the next let's call it 3 to six months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:59] I think the Trump second term in its entirety is going to uh deliver a bigger increase in the cost of living than the Biden term. So it's going to be a bigger problem inflation in Trump's second term than it was under Biden. uh especially in the last two years. I think that's where it's going to be the worst. Under Biden, inflation was the worst during his first two years, but I think in Trump, it's going to be the back end of his term, the last two years where inflation is going to be uh the worst probably into the double digits.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[33:28] I I think we were what were we upper teens or something in the in the late 70s? I I'd be willing to bet we're probably going to go back to that level. I don't think we're going to hyperinflate, but I think we're going to have some pretty bad inflation years ahead.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:22] So you're going to see inflation by it was 3.8% last month in the US CPI, you're going to see four, you're going to see 4 and a.5%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:28] we've entered a generational time of populism... deglobalization, and rising structural inflation... This is when you start to see commodity scarcity because if we start splitting up and doing protectionism... inflation through fiscal spending and fiscal dominance ends up slowing things the broad growth and definitely profits down

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:05] they came into the year with inflation core PCE falling to mid twos or 2.5 or 2.6 at the end of this year and now it looks like it will be closer to three or even higher than slightly higher than 3%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:51] I think Wall Street has very well priced in a peak inflation in for May. So what you have shown here is the May CPI print and if you look at the fixing it's pricing in a declining a disinflating year-over-year. So markets think that May is the peak. We also have have been saying that May is the peak. So inflation will be falling.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:09] on our work by the time we're in 2028 probably going to see us and global inflation in double figures. That means that the bond investors want a return on their money. So bond yields will be even higher and you have debt invested. Well, it's going to crash.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:52] you're going to get higher interest rates and inflation is coming for sure it's well it's it's about to land

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:21] I can't imagine that May is not going to come in a good bit higher. I'm talking about maybe four and a quarter or higher and then and then you probably go to four and a half or maybe four and three/4ers by the time you get to the fall.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:27] the demolition of the of the purchasing power of the currency is is virtually inevitable. So housing is going to become more more challenging. That's why real assets are soaring in value.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:00] so should deglobalization be get the opposite. So we should expect to see... the path for interest rates is higher not lower. And the same with inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:49] this idea that um you know the inflation will go away and that if Kevin Worsh just sits aside for a little while and gives it a minute, he'll have an opportunity to cut later is probably incorrect.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:19] inflation is after the last two readings of higher rates is going up. You know, is it going to stop at is it going to get to 10%. I don't have any idea, but it's going to get to six, I would say.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:40] you're seeing, you know, as some have pointed out, um, the whole kamay thing, it started out with gold. That's moved to energy, food, depending what you're looking at, starting to really pick up like meat prices... it's starting to permeate. And then you look in the sector in the in the service sector inflation is kind of sticky.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:42] I think you're going to see a smaller but equally as profound effect with Kevin Warsh. And so, I I've got my hopes hung closely on that.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:41] it will be very difficult uh for a good Fed policy to even with a price rule to bring that down sufficiently quickly to not have a real serious bout of inflation in the next 3 years.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:38] It's going to be highly inflationary. We're going to have high inflation for sure, you know, really high inflation because America has to go there. It has to print money to do it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:29] Yeah, I think that um we're going to continue to see inflation running similar to what we've seen uh in the last little while 2-3%. I mean it's a little bit higher today and that's wasn't necessarily a surprise given the the jump in oil prices as a result of the uh the war in the Middle East

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:46] before the war began um I was still saying we're we will have an inflationary boom in 2026 and for some of the reasons you've just mentioned number one there was one big beautiful bill.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:10] The inflation number you asked about, I think there's more where that came from.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:01] I have been a firm believer for quite some time that that inflation was going to be a problem. You and I have talked about that in the past and um that's still going to be an issue.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:50] I think we'll see inflation moving higher simply because the money supply has been accelerating. So, so we got two two different things going on. And the causality in inflation runs from changes in the money supply to changes in inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:14] we are in an inflationary age, you know, the 2020s or an inflationary era that is going to persist for for quite some time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:33] They're all saying, a lot of them are saying is going to be stagflation, stagnant economy, and rising inflation. No, it's not. It's going to be drag inflation, declining economic growth, and rising inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:10] it doesn't have to be an explicit default. We can have a de facto default through inflation, which is the most likely path forward for a lot of these countries.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:15] once you get that down you still have the issue of what's going on even prior to those oil price spikes and that's where I think you get this longer term high-end inflation probably between three and 4%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:55] instead the inflation is moving away toward the 3 to 3 12% range

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:24] You're going to get inflation of 7, 8, 9% for 5, 6, 10 years. And it's here. It's arrived.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:40] So instead of a loaf of bread selling God, I couldn't believe that recently uh for $9 for a loaf of bread uh and it's really unhealthy stuff at the same time. Uh so you're going to see a loaf of bread for $50 or $100 and people are going to pay it if they want to eat bread.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[30:46] Inflation at 3.5 by the end of the year or three? Uh, two.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:01] inflationary pressures are there and uh uh if the and the it's the kind of inflation that is inflation due to oil shocks that is very hard to combat because really uh the shocks are real. This is not just the Federal Reserve spitting out too much money. This is real resources becoming less available.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[15:46] So, we're we're going to see much higher inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[7:56] we think the next two decades is going to be different in that it's going to be a lot higher on average and it's also going to be very volatile. So there's going to be periods when inflation's accelerating a lot, periods when it's decelerating a lot, but in general it's going to be significantly above where it was uh for the last two decades.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:39] we really think that inflation will go on up all through the rest of the year eventually go over 4% at the end of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:31] re inflation rates could come down pretty quickly when we're out there in the summer, you know, early fall

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:01] you're about to take off now on a new run in inflation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[29:51] Uh the answer is by the end of the year down. I think CPI or PC, whichever one you want to measure, they will peak around uh August.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:00] we're going to see that accelerate over time. And with the actions that governments are taking, continuing to add to the debt, focusing more on spending versus cutting the spending, we're going to see that accelerate over time.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[26:05] So on Friday the latest CPI numbers come out. And they're going to show the effects of the Iran war and they're going to show headline inflation going spiking in a quite dramatic way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:13] most of the serious economic models suggest that the oil price shock coming out of Iran will have quite a large effect on headline inflation but actually very very muted effect on core inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:33] we're going to have a supply shock the likes of which we haven't seen since the 1970s.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[8:55] The inflation story is still going to remain with us uh even when this war ends.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[35:09] No, I think inflation's heading back to 2% or even lower.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:35] Plus, we'll probably see that with the March CPI coming out that'll be I think substantially higher.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:25] I think we're heading towards very strong deflationary environment which however could be countermanded by political and fiscal actions.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:58] I do think that inflation is is likely to stay higher for longer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:48] one of the takeaways in my big picture macro analysis is that we're going to see the next leg up in inflation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[9:31] you've got uh increasing energy costs that's going to cause uh increasing inflation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:19] I fully expect this number to be close to to zero by this year, if not next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:11] those uh numbers will go up and we're looking probably at a 5 to 8% inflation problem for a period of time as that goes through the supply chain.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[0:00] So inflation is going to continue to accelerate. Inflation is going to go into the double digits and who knows it may even go into the triple digits.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[2:18] I mean, I if people think inflation's coming down over the next couple of three years, I think they're going to be very disappointed.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:54] I don't think the Fed is going to be able to put that genie back in the bottle. meaning what what's that 2% or less? I don't think it's going to 2% or less.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:41] I think it's going up. I think I think it's going it's going it's going up. It's going to it's going to drift up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:47] The first part of the year we expect to be a Goldilocks environment where inflation is still tamed from those factors we talked about last time. Those three factors are still holding inflation down.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:52] I think inflation is sticky and probably heading up.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:18] potential chair WH if he's confirmed um will not necessarily be battling inflation, but battling its its evil stepsister, disinflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:59] I think we have a dishonest default, which is to say that we honor the nominal value of our obligations while we inflate away the net present value of our obligations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[32:43] I don't think this loosening will allow the Fed to get back the genie of inflation back in the bottle and get down to the target of 2%. I think that's the real problem and that's going to be a big problem for Trump

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[13:16] And in the first half of the year, we have inflation dropping towards 2.25%. the street's still at like three, you know, for the second quarter. That's way too high.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[20:46] I think in the next three or four years, it's reasonable that we're going to see even official numbers show inflation's running at 7 8 10% maybe more.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[17:24] 2026 I expect the inflation rate to be anywhere 3 higher than 3%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:10] I still believe that we're not going we may go to 2% from a rate of change standpoint for a period of time, but I don't think we sustainably stay there... I expect inflation volatility and to my point as you mentioned that I made last year, I don't expect us to go to 2% and magically stay there. We may go to 2% temporarily but I expect a real acceleration thereafter. Bottom line is I think inflation volatility is here to stay

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[22:54] we're talking at 4% inflation

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:06] In other words, we could easily be looking at sliding right below the Fed's 2% target going into the new year with this gauge that I follow.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[4:08] I think it's safe to assume that next year at this time inflation will be quite a bit lower than where it is now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[27:09] I tend to think that it's going to happen in the next six months. Maybe a year at the most.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[34:14] I personally believe that in this next cycle, we'll break double digits. The last cycle we went up to nine.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:50] you know the Federal Reserve may try to lower rates more but they're going to be struggling with sticky to higher inflation. And interestingly also there's a 67month cycle in the unemployment rate and we're also into a rising unemployment trend according to that cycle uh as well that still has some room to run. So yes, we are seeing higher pressures on unemployment and we've been we anticipated those a while ago. So there is pressure for the Fed to lower rates based on higher unemployment, but it's happening in the face of persistent and sticky and probably even rising inflation over the next 12 to 18 months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:09] I think in 12 15 months from now which I think inflation will be back up again

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:53] I think in generally inflation is going to be sustainable though. between three and four.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[5:29] I think happen again on Friday with the Fed's favorite measure the PCE core inflation rate which is going to show an increase

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:09] you're going to have higher inflation in the coming months of this uh half of the year and perhaps at the beginning of 2026

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:18] I think there's definitely a chance that you'll see an uptick in the next month or two as well as some of these prices again come through with a slight lag

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[3:59] We are still in a downward trajectory for inflation and the reason for that is that inflation is always an everywhere a monetary phenomenon. So you have to look at what was going on a couple years ago with the money supply to get some idea of what's going to be happening with inflation today or tomorrow. And since the money supply two two and a half years ago was actually contracting, it would indicate that we'd stay on this downward trajectory.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:31] So in the next year we shouldn't be concerned about doubledigit inflation or high single not double digit inflation maybe high singledigit inflation coming back. You know people have painful memories of 2020 and 2021. So

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[21:54] I think we have a circumstance that resembles very much the decade of the 1970s where according to the Congressional Budget Office, the US dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power. Stated differently, we had several years where the official inflation rate in the United States was in double digits, compounded.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[6:26] I would expect inflation to continue to creep higher, not just because of Trump's tariffs. There's other factors here. We talked about the deportations having an impact as well. But also, I would just point out is that one of the biggest drivers about a year ago of inflation was the stock market. And the stock market was at all-time highs. We had the big correction in March into April. We're now back at all-time highs. So, the wealth effect, people are feeling that again. They're feeling well. they look at their 401ks up 25% since April. That's a huge move that makes people want to go out and spend u on goods for instance new TVs etc. And so I think that that can also play a role here. So I think a combination of all those things that I mentioned you will see inflation continue to hold up. Again I don't expect a massive spike unless new high tariffs of 30% go into play. But is it going to stay stubbornly around 3% inflation? I actually do think so.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[18:15] if you're looking conservatively at 10% inflation compounding per year, I think it's closer to 12. Some say it's could be as low as eight, but if you're being generous and we have a 10% actual inflation, not the Misfit Island of Misfit toys at the BLS telling us it's 4.2.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[25:10] this is probably, you know, a later second half story before we can really uh make a good case or or or a good judgment about whether or not higher tariffs is actually flowing through to domestic prices. That being said, the idea that there's going to, you know, the idea there's going to be a sort of a more significant, you know, wage spiral or inflationary spiral here, we're it's probably not going to happen. And so, you know, it's almost certainly not going to happen. We're talking about 50 or 100 basis points on core PCE at the most in terms of the flow through of the tariffs

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[1:01] I actually think they are right and I actually do think inflation is coming. Uh and I'm talking about over the next few months because of tariffs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[28:03] it won't be runaway it won't be fair but it could be five 6% again in the next two or three years

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[10:25] I do think that inflation from this is coming. But I understand the technical reason why Powell dismisses it. [...] So, I do think we're going to see this higher inflation or this bout of inflation near-term. I think that's coming

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[11:20] I think eventually you you will have higher inflation. Maybe not here in the next two or three months just because of sort of the base effects you're looking at, but when you get into, you know, adding these tariffs on things that happen, you should you should get more inflation. I I would guess that you would.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[12:01] we think inflation over the next decade will yield somewhere between three and a half and five.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[16:44] I think it it might even hit the Fed's target at 2% or maybe even a little below this year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:13] I think between now in mid year that that's when you would get this breakdown in in in the yield probably because the economy the market whatever maybe all of it together but later on I'm talking about in the latter part of this year and then end of next year your Inflation Rate goes back up again

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

[24:31] we felt all along it's going to average for the next decade it's probably going to average three and a half or 4% on average that means sometimes you'll have it at five or six

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.