Justin Wolfers Predictions

Professor of Public Policy And Economics at the University of Michigan

Track Justin Wolfers's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

2 forecasts 2 correct
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
  • Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
  • Submit corrections
2 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Justin Wolfers Inflation Rate CPI numbers will show headline inflation spiking dramatically due to the Iran war effects
See quote
[26:05] So on Friday the latest CPI numbers come out. And they're going to show the effects of the Iran war and they're going to show headline inflation going spiking in a quite dramatic way.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-04-09 2026-04-11

The March 2026 CPI report (released April 10, 2026) showed headline inflation jumping to 3.3% YoY — up sharply from 2.4% in February — driven largely by a 21.2% monthly surge in gasoline prices tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The prediction of a dramatic headline inflation spike due to the Iran war was correct. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_04102026.htm)
Justin Wolfers Inflation Rate The oil price shock from Iran will have a muted effect on core inflation despite large effects on headline inflation
See quote
[27:13] most of the serious economic models suggest that the oil price shock coming out of Iran will have quite a large effect on headline inflation but actually very very muted effect on core inflation.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-04-09 2027-04-09

March 2026 CPI data showed headline inflation surged to 3.3% (driven by gasoline up 21.2%), while core CPI rose only 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually — confirming the predicted large headline/muted core split from the Iran oil shock. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/04/10/economy/us-cpi-inflation-march)