Predictor Rankings

Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
Pending predictions are excluded from scores and could significantly change rankings once resolved.
Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
Score = Wilson score lower bound (95% confidence interval). Penalizes small samples — 1/1 ranks lower than 10/13.
Raw accuracy shown as X/Y.
Only predictors with 5+ graded predictions are shown.

# Person Total Correct Wrong Pending Accuracy Score

1 Gary Wagner 28 9 4 15 9/13 (69%) 42%

2 Peter Grandich 48 10 5 33 10/15 (67%) 42%

3 Clem Chambers 64 7 3 54 7/10 (70%) 40%

4 Thomas Hayes 26 4 1 21 4/5 (80%) 38%

5 Gareth Soloway 62 18 16 28 18/34 (53%) 37%

6 Jason Shapiro 13 5 2 6 5/7 (71%) 36%

7 Sam Burns 20 4 2 14 4/6 (67%) 30%

8 Chris Vermeulen 78 16 23 39 16/39 (41%) 27%

9 Jim Bianco 23 5 4 14 5/9 (56%) 27%

10 Mark Zandi 7 3 2 2 3/5 (60%) 23%

11 Lobo Tiggre 19 3 2 14 3/5 (60%) 23%

12 Jeff Christian 20 4 5 11 4/9 (44%) 19%

13 David Hay 19 4 5 10 4/9 (44%) 19%

14 Michael Gayed 26 4 6 16 4/10 (40%) 17%

15 David Rosenberg 34 3 4 27 3/7 (43%) 16%

16 David Woo 20 3 4 13 3/7 (43%) 16%

17 Doomberg 16 2 3 11 2/5 (40%) 12%

18 Komal Sri-Kumar 17 2 3 12 2/5 (40%) 12%

19 Mark Skousen 13 2 4 7 2/6 (33%) 10%

20 Danielle DiMartino Booth 36 2 6 28 2/8 (25%) 7%

21 Steve Hanke 50 2 8 40 2/10 (20%) 6%

22 Mike McGlone 35 1 4 30 1/5 (20%) 4%