Predictor Rankings

Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
Pending predictions are excluded from scores and could significantly change rankings once resolved.
Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
Score = Wilson score lower bound (95% confidence interval). Penalizes small samples — 1/1 ranks lower than 10/13.
Raw accuracy shown as X/Y.
Only predictors with 5+ graded predictions are shown.

# Person Total Correct Wrong Pending Accuracy Score

1 Ted Oakley 67 7 0 60 7/7 (100%) 65%

2 Clem Chambers 80 9 3 68 9/12 (75%) 47%

3 Gary Wagner 36 10 4 22 10/14 (71%) 45%

4 Peter Grandich 59 10 5 44 10/15 (67%) 42%

5 Sam Burns 20 6 2 12 6/8 (75%) 41%

6 Thomas Hayes 36 4 1 31 4/5 (80%) 38%

7 Jason Shapiro 17 5 2 10 5/7 (71%) 36%

8 Jim Welsh 28 6 3 19 6/9 (67%) 35%

9 Gareth Soloway 86 17 19 50 17/36 (47%) 32%

10 Chris Vermeulen 99 17 24 58 17/41 (41%) 28%

11 Lobo Tiggre 28 4 3 21 4/7 (57%) 25%

12 Jim Bianco 25 5 5 15 5/10 (50%) 24%

13 David Woo 35 5 5 25 5/10 (50%) 24%

14 Mark Zandi 7 3 2 2 3/5 (60%) 23%

15 David Rosenberg 41 4 4 33 4/8 (50%) 22%

16 Michael Gayed 29 5 6 18 5/11 (45%) 21%

17 Jeff Christian 25 4 5 16 4/9 (44%) 19%

18 David Hay 25 4 5 16 4/9 (44%) 19%

19 Steve Hanke 75 4 8 63 4/12 (33%) 14%

20 Danielle DiMartino Booth 44 3 6 35 3/9 (33%) 12%

21 Doomberg 16 2 3 11 2/5 (40%) 12%

22 Komal Sri-Kumar 21 2 3 16 2/5 (40%) 12%

23 Mark Skousen 19 2 4 13 2/6 (33%) 10%

24 Mike McGlone 50 1 4 45 1/5 (20%) 4%