Predictor Rankings

Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
Pending predictions are excluded from scores and could significantly change rankings once resolved.
Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
Score = Wilson score lower bound (95% confidence interval). Penalizes small samples — 1/1 ranks lower than 10/13.
Raw accuracy shown as X/Y.
Only predictors with 5+ graded predictions are shown.

# Person Total Correct Wrong Pending Accuracy Score

1 Peter Grandich 32 10 3 19 10/13 (77%) 50%

2 Gary Wagner 21 9 3 9 9/12 (75%) 47%

3 Clem Chambers 51 7 3 41 7/10 (70%) 40%

4 Thomas Hayes 18 4 1 13 4/5 (80%) 38%

5 Gareth Soloway 52 17 15 20 17/32 (53%) 36%

6 Jason Shapiro 13 5 2 6 5/7 (71%) 36%

7 Chris Vermeulen 66 16 21 29 16/37 (43%) 29%

8 Lobo Tiggre 11 3 2 6 3/5 (60%) 23%

9 Sam Burns 9 3 2 4 3/5 (60%) 23%

10 Michael Gayed 21 4 5 12 4/9 (44%) 19%

11 Jeff Christian 16 4 5 7 4/9 (44%) 19%

12 David Hay 13 4 5 4 4/9 (44%) 19%

13 Jim Bianco 18 3 4 11 3/7 (43%) 16%

14 Doomberg 11 2 3 6 2/5 (40%) 12%

15 Komal Sri-Kumar 12 2 3 7 2/5 (40%) 12%

16 David Rosenberg 21 2 3 16 2/5 (40%) 12%

17 Steve Hanke 39 3 7 29 3/10 (30%) 11%

18 Mark Skousen 8 2 4 2 2/6 (33%) 10%

19 Danielle DiMartino Booth 27 2 5 20 2/7 (29%) 8%

20 Mike McGlone 29 1 4 24 1/5 (20%) 4%