Komal Sri-Kumar Predictions
President of Sri Kumar Global Strategies
Track Komal Sri-Kumar's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[13:42] I agree with market expectations. I have been saying on your show, David, as well as in my writings, even before the Iran war, that the Fed should be increasing the interest rate to keep inflation under control... interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[14:24] even if oil price doesn't go up it is going to take a while for inflation to come under control. All of those say to me in answer to your question that interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.
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[33:23] this year I think as you because of the fear of inflation the second half of the year I think we will see the growth rate uh coming down under pressure uh coming under pressure because despite the fact that today we had some very good retail sales numbers employment has continued to be very strong but typically when you have a shock that registers itself suddenly it does not happen gradually
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[35:17] the absence of forward guidance in my opinion is that there is going to be more uncertainty, more volatility in markets uh which you would not have had if the Fed had given you proper guidance in the past.
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[9:59] My expectation is that the tapering of the balance sheet, what is known as quantitative tightening is unlikely to resume anytime soon... I don't think it is going to happen anytime soon
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[6:55] instead the inflation is moving away toward the 3 to 3 12% range
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[35:25] and energy I think has clearly more uh leeway to go up because oil prices are going to increase further. So I think they are going to do well.
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[35:48] Healthcare is an area which should do well.
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[35:50] technology, AI, be very careful where you invest. They've gone up substantially and they are the ones who can be vulnerable to a decline.
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[6:28] So my expectation more rather than less. I'm going to expect one more cut in January to take place.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January 27-28, 2026 meeting, not cutting by 25 basis points as predicted. The FOMC voted to maintain the target range unchanged, pausing after three consecutive cuts in the fall of 2025. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm)
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[17:24] 2026 I expect the inflation rate to be anywhere 3 higher than 3%.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[17:58] And my expectation is you you are moving toward a recession in 2026.
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[31:40] I expect before the end of 2026 we'll be at 5,000.
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[5:29] I think happen again on Friday with the Fed's favorite measure the PCE core inflation rate which is going to show an increase
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The BEA released the July 2025 PCE report on Friday, August 29, 2025, showing core PCE inflation rose to 2.9% year-over-year, up from 2.8% in June 2025 — confirming the prediction of an increase. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-july-2025)
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[12:09] you're going to have higher inflation in the coming months of this uh half of the year and perhaps at the beginning of 2026
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction that inflation would be higher in H2 2025 and early 2026 proved wrong. CPI fell from ~3.01% in September 2025 to 2.74% in November, 2.7% in December, and further to 2.4% in January and February 2026 — a clear downward trend, not an increase. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm)
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[23:08] I think there is still an increase coming in the price of gold and I've been saying that when it was at the beginning of the year it was about 2600 an ounce and we are about $800 higher and I still find it very attractive in terms of where they can go
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold prices would 'continue to increase from current levels around $3,400 per ounce,' and the period high reached $4,556.3 (a 35.1% increase from the $3,373.8 prediction date price), far exceeding the bullish claim of continued increases.
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[0:00] You are going to see the equities which rallied yesterday and today they are going to tank again in a big way.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed equities would 'tank again in a big way,' but the period low of $5433.24 represents only a 1.7% decline from the prediction date price of $5528.75, which does not constitute a significant crash, while the period high reached 5% gains, contradicting the bearish forecast.