GDP Predictions
Browse GDP market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[27:31] My base case is the economy grows above potential in 26. and for the remainder of 2026.
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[9:17] there's a real probability that the time we finish up this year, we're going to be closer to 1.8 to 2% GDP growth versus 2.3 to 2.6, right?
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[9:06] I don't think a four or a five handle for the year, which is what I was saying previously, but I don't think a four or a five handle for the year is is likely at this point. I I I think probably you're looking at somewhere in the twos. Might you get a three handle? It's possible, but probably a two.
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[33:23] this year I think as you because of the fear of inflation the second half of the year I think we will see the growth rate uh coming down under pressure uh coming under pressure because despite the fact that today we had some very good retail sales numbers employment has continued to be very strong but typically when you have a shock that registers itself suddenly it does not happen gradually
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[31:01] We've been saying since last April it's at least 3%. And so consensus is about 50% too low on growth relative to our paradigm C theme.
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[2:46] Q3 we're looking at you know kind of coming back on getting supplies back online that's a transitional phase with some acceleration in Q4.
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[28:38] Uh zero to negative is my bias is the answer.
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[4:01] but we do see an economic reaceleration with the fiscal expansion due to the one big beautiful bill and uh in lower rates as well.
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[17:47] my estimate is that 5% sustained real GDP growth is optimistic. Uh I I'd pick a lower um figure than that.
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[12:50] if we can spend 2026 in GDP growth over two maybe three.
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[15:24] we're higher than Wall Street on real GDP growth. You know we're at 3% for year-over-year for the upcoming quarter. That's another acceleration.
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The BEA's advance estimate released April 30, 2026 showed real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026 (year-over-year rate of ~2.66%), well below the predicted 3% year-over-year figure. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-1st-quarter-2026)