Darius Dale Predictions

Founder at 42 Macro

Track Darius Dale's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

14 forecasts 1 correct 2 wrong 11 pending
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14 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Darius Dale S&P 500 There is a high risk of a 1998-style market correction (approximately -15%) in the next one to two quarters
See quote
[0:00] Yeah, we still think the risk of a 1998 style correction markets is is still pretty high over the next one and two quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-02 2026-12-31 pending
Darius Dale Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy within the next one to two quarters
See quote
[5:37] we think there is still material risk of the Fed uh tightening monetary policy over the medium-term. Let's call it in the first in the next one to two quarters.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-02 2026-12-31 pending
Darius Dale Fed Funds Rate The net result of the Fed's five task forces will be a dovish policy outcome, likely announced toward end of 2026
See quote
[10:09] the net result of these five task forces are are are doubbish... if you don't mind I can kind of walk you through what we're thinking in terms of those task forces and why we think the Fed has to be you know more tight now more more hawkish now so that it can ultimately create the scope for that

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-02 2026-12-31 pending
Darius Dale Treasury Yields The 10-year Treasury yield will reprice to well north of 5%, with fair value between 5.25% and 5.9%
See quote
[23:24] you're talking about a a 10-year nominal Treasury yield that is a a fair value of about, you know, five and a quarter, somewhere about 5.9 somewhere between five and five and 3/4 to 5.9%... you're talking about a a bond market that could easily reprice to somewhere well north of 5%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-02 2027-12-31 pending
Darius Dale Inflation Rate Headline CPI inflation, currently running at 8% on a 3-month annualized basis, will come back down in the near term
See quote
[4:38] We're currently annualizing at 8% on headline CPI on a three-month annualized basis. That's going to come back down and and we're going to be off, you know, we're, you know, the markets have appropriately priced that that's going to come back down

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-02 2026-10-15 pending
Darius Dale Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will shift to easier monetary policy, creating a serious inflation problem in 2027
See quote
[11:25] you know the Federal Reserve will have a serious inflation problem in 2027 if they go from today to tomorrow which is where we think they're going tomorrow which is more easy

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-07-02 2027-12-31 pending
Darius Dale S&P 500 The stock market will finish 2026 at a much higher level than current prices, though a 10-15% drawdown is possible along the way
See quote
[26:16] I think we finished the year at a much higher level from a stock market standpoint than we are today but that doesn't mean we can't have a let's call it 10 to 15% draw down between now and then as a function of central banks reaction function uh getting incrementally hawkish

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-28 2026-12-31 pending
Darius Dale Recession A US recession will not occur until at least late 2027
See quote
[29:29] Yeah. No, I think we could if folks are on your your channel using the R word. Um just tell them to punt it into the ocean at least until late next year. Just take the R word, punt it into the ocean

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-28 2027-06-30 pending
Darius Dale GDP US GDP growth will reach at least 3%, roughly 50% above the Wall Street consensus of 2.1%
See quote
[31:01] We've been saying since last April it's at least 3%. And so consensus is about 50% too low on growth relative to our paradigm C theme.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-28 2027-12-31 pending
Darius Dale Inflation Rate Sticky inflation will cause problems for financial markets over the next 3 to 6 months
See quote
[21:00] yes yes and yes... we ultimately have to figure out whether or not the Kevin Walsh Federal Reserve is going to look through uh these sticky inflation pressures... The only thing that's negative is sticky inflation. And in our opinion, we think the sticky inflation thing may cause some problems uh once we get uh maybe you know um you know may cause some problems over the next let's call it 3 to six months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-28 2026-12-31 pending
Darius Dale US Dollar The US Dollar will enter a secular bear market
See quote
[0:00] And this is why we think we're early innings of a a secular dollar bare market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2027-05-01 pending
Darius Dale S&P 500 The S&P 500 will sell off again over the next one to two quarters as part of a W-shaped market pattern
See quote
[3:06] Our base case scenario is that we are in what we've been saying is a W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy. And what I mean by that is that if you think about the shape of a W, we're sort of on the inside left of the W. And we're expecting over the next one to two quarters that the markets will eventually have to uh sell off again and price in the inside right of the W

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2025-11-01

The prediction specifically claimed the S&P 500 would 'sell off again' over the next one to two quarters, but the period low of $5578.64 on 2025-05-07 was only 0.45% below the prediction date price of $5604.14, failing to demonstrate any meaningful selloff before the market rallied 22.1% to reach $6840.2 by the target date.
Darius Dale US Economy The US economy will enter a technical recession with multiple quarters of negative growth
See quote
[10:08] we see the economy heading into a technical recession. Uh a technical recession is a just a mere collection of of negative quarters where you're having negative growth.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2026-05-01

Graded early 2026-03-22. Technical recession requires multiple consecutive negative GDP quarters. Only Q1 2025 was negative (-0.6%). Q2 2025 (+3.8%), Q3 (+4.4%), Q4 (+0.7%) all positive. Q1 2026 tracking +2.3% (Atlanta Fed GDPNow). With one quarter left before May 2026 target, impossible to achieve two consecutive negative quarters.
Darius Dale Gold Gold will continue to be the best performing currency
See quote
[36:37] to me, the the best currency in the world has been and is very likely to continue to be gold

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-05-01 2026-05-01

The prediction claimed gold would 'continue to be the best performing currency,' which is a qualitative claim about relative outperformance rather than a specific quantitative target. Gold achieved a 36.7% gain at the target date close and reached a period high of $5586.2 (74.1% gain from prediction price), demonstrating strong bullish performance consistent with the claim that it would continue to be the best performing currency.