Treasury Yields Predictions

[5:23] my biggest risks over the next few months are that yields on the long end still are likely going to rise and also that crude oil also can probably rise.

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[16:26] yields likely cannot get too far above 475 on the 10-year uh without causing a very noticeable trigger where, you know, the Treasury will come in and start to buy massive amounts of uh different kinds of securities

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[12:36] I'm bearish on US government bonds, but I know that they'll come in with all the fire hoses they've got to save that beast.

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[5:13] I think there's a real opportunity at the front end of the yield curve uh which is still priced uh you know at least for one more hike. I think that's going to come out. The two-year note is actually a very good place to be. two years and three years uh in that part of the curve.

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[11:48] He he does not. I think it goes higher.

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[5:39] The trend in interest rates is going to be higher. And uh we're going to have um uh generally poor economic performance uh in which the standard of living will stagnate and uh basically a complete reversal of what we saw over the previous three decades from let's say 1990 to 2020.

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[37:27] the real rate is going to rise. And the reason it's going to rise, Adam, is because of what we just talked about. that we have this imbalance between the demands for physical capital and the supply of saving. So, it's going to drive the real rate higher. Inflation is going to go higher

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[40:08] the last element which has not been a problem but is the is the risk premium. And and the thing that that I believe is going to change the risk premium is the fact that the interest expense is making it almost impossible from a political standpoint to address the deficit which means that the deficit direction is worse and worse.

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[11:01] I think it's going to be more the two-year in can come down because that's directly affected. There's an ETF. It's a little bit aggressive. It's a TUA is the ETF and it actually tries to invest in two-year treasuries using futures to create longer duration because otherwise, you know, you buy and sell two-year Treasury ETFs, they just don't move very much. So, if you're aggressive on this, like own some Tua and I will probably add to it. Um, because I like that exposure to two-year

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[28:09] underlying GDP growth in the US nominal GDP so that's with inflation is running at something like 7 to 8% and that is incompatible with bond yields currently at what 4.7 at the 10-year level. >> So do you think so bond yields headed higher then? >> There there seems to be no question.

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[12:54] I believe we're in a long-term uh trend higher for Treasury yields. And I believe we'll see the 10-year above 5%. That was the high in October of 23.

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[28:05] there's there's no doubt the chart of of the 5year yield the 10year the 30-year they're all pointing to higher pricing and and you and I have talked about this for many many months. I'm like the chart is the charts are actually pointing to for the for the 10 year and the 30-year 8%.

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[31:07] I I think the bond market is going to call call a tune. And and one thing we know, we we know the stock market's in a bubble... higher interest rates you usually are associated with bubbles popping.

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[17:19] I don't think bond yields are rising. I got it. I got them at four to 5% for as far as the I can see. I think we're going to kind of going to stay at normal.

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[0:00] the bottom line is the higher for longer interest rate environment I think is very much here to stay especially if you're bullish on AI and this whole capex boom because that's going to feed this crowding out phenomenon that's putting upward pressure on Treasury yields which happens to be the benchmark against which everybody has tied. So you're talking about you know higher for longer for everybody.

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[31:29] just as you know the fall of the Berlin wall and the onset of globalization thereafter pushed rates steadily lower from 1980 till basically just a few years ago. So will delization I think beget the reverse where rates will slowly just ever so you know each year move higher and higher

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[44:55] they'll keep going up. You you don't want to be long you long long bonds, those interest rate those interest rates will go up and and that means what? If the interest rates go up, the price goes down.

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[24:35] I I think bond yields are going to move higher. And and and if the only way I think you get bond yields moving lower is an a lower equity market to force people into bonds. And we're not getting that at this point.

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[0:00] there's a limit to how high treasury yields can go if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit... I just see it as really there's a cap on yields. And while there's not a firm cap yet, while we haven't seen actual yield curve control, there's an implicit target

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[31:37] The main thing I think is mispriced is long bonds at 5.2%. I think by the end of the year they'll be much lower.

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[10:28] I think bond yields are going up. I think bond like where they go to five, five and a half, six, I don't know, but they're going up. And when they go up, that's not exactly going to be good for the stock market

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[19:39] I've been bullish. I've been bearish consistently on bonds for two, three years, and I'm not changing my tune.

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[27:07] I think the market starts betting that the Fed's at least going to go on the sidelines, which would take the 2-year Treasury down. So, I would say the shorter shorter tenure 10 ten years from here because they've blown out so much would be a good place to be.

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[28:21] Gold is not going to be the safe haven. Uh, the Treasury bonds of the US is going to be the safe haven as they were in 2008.

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[28:56] bond yields, I'm telling you, I'm expecting a Treasury bond yield and we've already seen 0.4% so many years ago in the last downturn, 2008-2009. We're going to see Treasury bond yields go down to zero or lower.

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[23:24] you're talking about a a 10-year nominal Treasury yield that is a a fair value of about, you know, five and a quarter, somewhere about 5.9 somewhere between five and five and 3/4 to 5.9%... you're talking about a a bond market that could easily reprice to somewhere well north of 5%.

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[35:08] They are forecasting that bond yields have peaked with the inflation number that peak that that came out really hot last month. So, there's they expect that inflation's going to cool off as we go through the rest of year. That's going to bring down bond yields, which is going to be a positive for the underlying economy

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[4:32] oil prices have come down which should stabilize inflation more. Uh so you should probably see yields come down.

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[36:23] I don't think the Fed is in control anymore. And I don't think you can artificially suppress interest rates in perpetuity. And the bond yields continue to rise.

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[37:21] Um that's not my expectation. I I think yields have peaked. I think they will come down. I think they'll come down most at the front end of the yield curve. So it'll steepen cuz I think that those rate hike expectations are going to come out. I think in the US we'll revert back to those two rate cut expectations.

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[21:17] I think rates will will stay up, but I guess as with all things, there's there's 10 or 20 or 30 different factors affecting something

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[22:15] my prediction is by the end of the year, everything will be down following Bitcoin, following precious metals, bond yields lower

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[20:25] We're going to punch through the yield highs. We're going to go through the price lows. And when you do that, the Fed, it's not one of their mandates. You know, it doesn't say we we're here to defend the government debt. Okay? But that's that's their mandate.

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[31:04] a lot of people think we will and, you know, could have big losses because you you look at these price charts for these major bond markets around the world, they look sick... we're going from five to six on the long-term Treasury

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[32:49] Y, yeah, yields are going up. Yields are going up anyway because the interest rate is a function of the inflation rate... And I think that I think they'll remain elevated. And that's why you've got the 10year at uh you know, almost 4 and a.5%.

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[2:52] I mean I think that it will actually hit the markets when we see bond yields run up again um particularly at the long end. And um they're breaking out. I mean they're all some of them have already broken out. I mean Germany's for example um France's Japan's they're already breaking out on the upside. The other G7s will follow.

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[2:10] I think yields are going a lot higher on the longer end in particular. And eventually the stock market is going to notice that and you're going to start to see some weakness there.

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[20:38] we're pretty much poised on a precipice of interest rates on long-term government debt breaking out to the upside.

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[25:16] that's when you will have a temporary collapse in long bond yields, governments and central banks throwing everything into the kitty so that you get a resurgence of inflation. Take us into the real collapse some somewhere between 2030 and 2032.

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[13:38] I think we'll get persistently higher yields because as we have seen central banks do cut rates and they have cut rates despite for example in the UK you saw uh inflation was rising and still the bank of England reduce rates but you know what happens is that the bank of England cuts rates and in very little time bond yields are back have completely offset that rate cut

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[12:00] I expect we'll probably see more of those pressures, especially if wars actually endeavors to shrink the balance sheet.

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[25:09] I do think rates will continue to move higher. I don't think I'm at the point where I'm going to say that we're at imminent risk of breaking something. That could be later, but not right now.

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[6:11] We spoke last time about the possibility of the yields going to 5% or higher. U, you asked me, do I have more conviction in that view now? Yes, I certainly do.

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[15:31] I think honestly in the near term, yields probably are going to start to come back in. I don't think the government's going to let things get too far out of control without the Fed trying to intervene.

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[21:03] we're suggesting that u investors should um should be very cautious and and and really take a defensive posture and that means being long um treasury bonds being out of stocks or possibly short major stock indices.

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[7:47] I think bonds are mispriced. I think yields are heading up.

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[32:04] based on this chart pattern it is pointing to like roughly like you know 8% % interest rates.

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[14:17] I think duration is the actually investment opportunity. you know, as much as people think yields are going to keep on rising, quite the opposite.

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[22:32] I still think there'll be enough of an inflation shock up ahead here and concerns that it's it's spreading that we will see four and 3/4%. But I would view that as a a tremendous buying opportunity.

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[8:47] even if we go into a recession, I think uh long-term interest rates on Treasury bonds will go higher, not lower, and that will break the pattern of the f the first 40 years of my career. And I think that's what's going to happen.

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[14:08] I'm projecting that TLT could double or a little more in this crisis when everything else including now gold and silver uh go down

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[31:11] they will go that or lower. They could go negative. So, if you're holding that 10-year Treasury and it goes from 4 and a half today down to zero, you know how much that bond's going to be worth? Double.

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[1:26] I think it's about time we're going to get a pretty significant reversion next year in stock market bond yields to go lower

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[39:08] the high in 2023 on the tenure was a 5%. I think we're going to go about 5%.

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[13:26] there's all sorts of these forces that are moving in an inflationary direction and that of course is going to be another significant force um um pushing bond yields higher

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[0:07] Gold soaring like this is telling you that the dollar is going to go down, that bonds are going to go down.

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[35:01] And I'm looking for the low 3% by early 2026.

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[17:30] interest rates are coming down in America and therefore bonds are going to bond yields are going to go down

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[5:52] Gold is the new trusted collateral... the new collateral isn't sovereign bonds in general or 10-year US treasuries in particular, the new collateral is gold

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