Jim Bianco Predictions

President of Bianco Research

Track Jim Bianco's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

23 forecasts 56% accuracy 5 correct 4 wrong 14 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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23 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Jim Bianco Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at least once, probably in October 2026.
See quote
[2:33] I think that they're going to go up. I think the Fed is going to be raising rates at least one time, probably October at this point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-18 2026-10-31 pending
Jim Bianco 10-Year Treasury Yield The 10-year Treasury yield will trend towards 5% by end of 2026.
See quote
[3:19] I think that we're probably going to see the 10-year yield, which is around a little under 450 right now, around 442 or so. It's probably going to trend towards 5%, I think, by the end of the year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-18 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco AI Stocks AI stocks have room to run higher in the near term.
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[21:59] I'm actually pretty bullish on the AI sector um right now. And I still think that there's some room for those stocks to run.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-18 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Inflation Rate Inflation will remain structurally elevated and will not return to the low-inflation regime of 2010-2020.
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[12:08] For those that talk about in you know technology with AI is going to be deflationary that you know we we're in a long-term deflationary pull. That's over. That is over. This is a different inflation cycle. You cannot expect us to go back to that other cycle that we had from 2010 to 2020 because we're not showing any indications of that. And now we're starting to move back up with inflation again.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-18 2027-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Yield Curve The yield curve will flatten as short-term interest rates rise faster than long-term rates.
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[4:21] They'll follow to some degree. Uh, but I do think you'll see cur the yield curve flatten. In other words, short-term interest rates will go up faster than long-term interest rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-06-18 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Oil Within a couple of weeks to a month, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to real supply constraints in the oil market
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[8:05] We don't have but a couple of more weeks, maybe a month that we could keep doing that before the the cumulative impact of the straight being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints in the oil market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-06-20

The Strait of Hormuz was effectively closed from early March 2026, and by the prediction's target date of June 20, the IEA confirmed cumulative supply losses exceeding 1 billion barrels with over 14 mb/d shut in — the largest supply disruption in oil market history. Real supply constraints clearly materialized well within the predicted timeframe. (https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-may-2026)
Jim Bianco Fed Funds Rate Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will shift to a neutral stance on rates for the next several months rather than cutting
See quote
[14:06] I personally don't think he believes those anymore and that he'll moderate to a more of a neutral stance. And that's where I think we're going to be for the next several months.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Fed Funds Rate The Fed will not hike rates at the June 17th meeting
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[13:31] I don't think they're going to hike at that meeting.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-06-17

The Fed voted unanimously 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 17, 2026 meeting, confirming the prediction was correct. No rate hike occurred at that meeting. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
Jim Bianco Treasury Yields Interest rates will continue to move higher without triggering an imminent crisis
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[25:09] I do think rates will continue to move higher. I don't think I'm at the point where I'm going to say that we're at imminent risk of breaking something. That could be later, but not right now.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Recession A recession will occur but it will be concentrated in the rest of the world, not the US
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[26:30] Will there be a recession? Yes. But where will that recession be? It'll be in the rest of the world. Okay, good. It's not in the US.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2027-05-20 pending
Jim Bianco US Dollar The US Dollar will move sideways to lower from current levels
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[32:44] I don't necessarily think that the dollar will rally from here. It could actually, you know, continue to turn sideways to lower. That's the way I think it's going to go.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco Private Credit Private credit funds with heavy software exposure will see significant deterioration in cash flows and valuations within 12-18 months due to AI disruption
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[38:15] investors are saying yes, but in a year or 18 months, will you be able to say that? And the answer we think as investors is no, you can't. The massive disruption is coming.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2027-11-20 pending
Jim Bianco Private Credit Private credit stress from AI disruption of software companies will not become a systemic financial problem
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[39:03] So since it is a technological disruption, I'm going to argue no, I don't think it's going to be a systemic problem.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-05-20 2027-05-20 pending
Jim Bianco Silver Silver will break above $50 for the first time in its history and could reach $75 to $100.
See quote
[0:08] I think we're going to take out $50 for the first time in silver's history and we're probably going to keep moving higher. It's go to 75 or 100.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Bianco S&P 500 Stocks will return approximately 6% annually over the next 5 to 10 years.
See quote
[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2034-10-12 pending
Jim Bianco Gold Precious metals will continue to be the best performing assets through the last quarter of 2025 into 2026.
See quote
[32:31] I'll contradict myself in that what's got the momentum and the momentum is precious metals and AI stocks. So that you know you said the last quarter that's two months to 3 months to four months. They probably will continue to be the best performers.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2026-03-31

The prediction claimed precious metals would be 'the best performing assets' through the target period. Gold (GC=F) returned +7.6% while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) returned -1.0%, confirming precious metals outperformed equities as the best performer during the prediction window.
Jim Bianco Inflation Rate Inflation will increase over the next few months due to tariffs
See quote
[1:01] I actually think they are right and I actually do think inflation is coming. Uh and I'm talking about over the next few months because of tariffs.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-09-19

CPI rose from 2.7% year-over-year in June 2025 to 3.0% by September 2025, with NBER research confirming tariffs boosted the U.S. Inflation Rate by approximately 0.7 percentage points between March and August 2025. (https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0301)
Jim Bianco 10-Year Treasury Yield 10-year Treasury yields will rise above 5%
See quote
[5:36] The 10 year and 30-year, I think they'll punch through 5%. That's my expectation, but not maybe by the end of the summer.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed 10-year Treasury yields would 'punch through 5%', but the period high was only $4.49 (4.49%) on 2025-07-17, which fell short of the 5% target by 51 basis points, so the specific claim was not met.
Jim Bianco S&P 500 Stocks will return around 6% over the next several years
See quote
[19:01] I've been terming these the four, five, six markets that over the next several years, cash will return you 4%, bonds will return you around five, and stocks because of their high valuation will return you around six.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2028-06-19 pending
Jim Bianco European Stocks European stocks will outperform US stocks due to better relative valuations
See quote
[20:04] That's why I think people are rotating into Europe? Because European stocks have so badly underperformed US stocks for many, many years. They've got very good relative valuations.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed European stocks (EZU) would outperform US stocks (^GSPC), but EZU gained 13.3% while ^GSPC gained 14.7% over the period, meaning US stocks outperformed Europe contrary to the prediction.
Jim Bianco Energy Sector Energy sector will outperform over the next 6 months
See quote
[24:20] Oh, I think that, you know, for the end of the year, for the next 6 months, I think that all the safe plays are going to be probably the play to go with. It's going to be energy, it's going to be gold

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-19

XLE underperformed the general market
Jim Bianco Gold Gold will outperform over the next 6 months
See quote
[24:20] Oh, I think that, you know, for the end of the year, for the next 6 months, I think that all the safe plays are going to be probably the play to go with. It's going to be energy, it's going to be gold

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-19

Gold (GC=F) returned 29.5% over the 6-month period while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) returned 14.5%, meaning gold outperformed the stock market benchmark by a significant margin, matching the bullish prediction that gold would be 'the play to go with' as a safe play.
Jim Bianco Magnificent Seven Magnificent Seven stocks will underperform due to high valuations
See quote
[25:31] I think at the least right now are probably the most overvalued companies and I'm going to point towards the Mag Seven right now. You've got, you know, the Mag Seven have got to see lots of things going right

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-06-19 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed Magnificent Seven stocks would underperform due to high valuations. QQQ (Nasdaq-100, heavily weighted toward Mag Seven) returned 17% versus S&P 500's 14.7%, meaning the Mag Seven actually outperformed the broader market during the prediction period, directly contradicting the bearish underperformance claim.