Fed Funds Rate Predictions
Browse Fed Funds Rate market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[9:44] there is almost a certainty right now, according to the Fed Watch tool, that we'll get at least one rate hike by December. And the real possibility that we might even see two. We're not expecting anything in September, but October we might see one.
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[20:43] I believe that yields will get to such a point and is it 5.3 is it 5.4 I before thought it was over four five percent where the Fed all of a sudden starts getting involved in the long end and tries to compress yields... I believe that that is becoming more and more of a distinct possibility.
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[25:02] I don't believe there's going to be a rise in October. I think it it it's political suicide to raise rates there for them. I think they'll wait till after the election, but I have no doubt in my mind that December we will have another rise in interest rates.
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[4:55] I think it's fairly fairly clear we're most likely going to have another interest rate hike this this year. Another quarter of a percent.
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[32:20] I believe the Fed I may end up eating these words, but I think it was one and done. Uh I don't anticipate that they're going to continue to raise rates.
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[27:36] What the Fed is going to start doing at some point is ramping up its purchase of longerterm treasuries to prevent precisely what I said will happen from happening. Because as rates really go up, Treasury yields, you know, go to 5%, 6%, 7%, 8%, right? Somewhere along there, the the government simply cannot afford to service the debt. They and they can't find buyers for it. So the Fed just steps up, unfortunately, as the buyer of only resort and prints up a bunch of money to buy the bonds that nobody else wants
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[19:05] I wouldn't be surprised if they hiked once, maybe twice more this year before it's all over. We've got three meetings left, so we'll see how it plays out.
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[18:03] Exactly. Yeah. And even though even though we had let's just go back to 2007 when Bernani started uh blinking... I think they we think when banks start closing down and the money markets freeze and the repo mark you know repo rates go to you know double digits even worse it's like I I got to do something. So so basically like the critics you think the Fed will eventually cave you just think the Fed's caving point is far farther out than what people are assuming right now. Exa Exactly.
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[0:57] Yeah, I do think we're this is a new rate height cycle and I and I think it's because when you listen to Worsh um he echoed something that Bill Dudley, former head of the New York Fed, wrote last week, which is um the rationale for tightening has has rarely been so clear-cut as it is today.
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[34:03] I think they'll probably um have to, you know, raise rates again um in order to keep that equilibrium between um this interbank loan rate and the rate of price inflation.
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[38:24] At the October meeting, they're going to stamp pat. They're not going to raise rates. They got that behind them at the September meeting.
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[24:25] I fully think it is overdoing it. Just the fact right now, Maggie, we are priced there 70% chance that um on October 28th that the chairman of the Federal Reserve who was hired by Mr. Trump to cut rates that they might hike rates a week before the u midterms is a shocker. I think I think what's going to happen is the the next big moves from the Fed will be a series of cuts
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[34:56] We think that the Fed will raise interest rates at least one more time, maybe two more times, but it's going to be wholly dependent on what's happening in the economy.
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[18:35] Well, on average, I I think it'll it'll it'll the fiscal side will win. Meaning that and that's kind of one of the definitions of fiscal dominance, which is that um Congress is not going to change uh their policies realistically based on what the Fed's doing.
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[17:13] I think they're going to go three times. I think they might skip October. they will go December and one more in January.
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[36:11] if the economy breaks, he's going to be cutting from wherever he is at the time, four, four and a quarter% back down to 1% eventually. That's where I think he's going, one or even zero.
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[0:00] They cut rates 200 basis points. That's what will happen. That's what will happen when the mania breaks.
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[0:26] The Fed is likely to continue hiking rates, but inevitably the Federal Reserve will continue going until it can't go anymore. And when it doesn't go anymore, it's usually because the economy has fallen off and the Fed has finally figured out there wasn't a resilient situation.
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[1:53] He's going to have to raise again. And so, you and I talked about this in our last interview, and I said he's going to have to follow the yield curve, uh, the two-year bond yield, and likely it's going to go up. And there you go. He went up 25 basis points. So, they're likely going to do it again uh whenever their next meeting is, October, November, do another 25 basis points uh hike.
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[10:18] yes, I think the Fed's going to raise rates. They're going to raise them too many times as they always do at the end of a cycle.
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[23:24] I think they're gonna have a panic attack and have panic rate cuts. It might be like 08 where you know the Bernank and the whole nine yards.
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[3:10] that in turn has caused the Fed to go uh uh and uh into a tightening cycle. It's uh I think everybody has concluded it's not going to be one and done but there could be two more rate hikes this uh this year.
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[13:51] I just I cannot foresee a backdrop in which this economy can withstand much higher interest rates, whether you're a US household or a US small business.
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[9:37] I I think given what we know now, I I think they'll continue to increase the Fed funds rate until the growth in the money supply slows down to 6% or something close to
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[37:55] I'm going to go that he's he's going to hike 25.
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The FOMC voted 12-0 on September 16, 2026 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, and Kevin Warsh is indeed the current Fed Chair. Both elements of the prediction — Warsh as Chair and a 25 bps hike — proved correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[19:06] I think the odds of an October rate hiker are low because of the election coming up. Now, anybody on the Fed will tell you they're not going to be driven by politics, right? And they're certainly not going to put it in writing on the transcript by uttering a word about it during the meeting, but in the back of their mind, it has to be. And so that means unless inflation numbers are terrible, it will likely be December.
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[8:14] I expect as well that there are going to be two hikes, of which one occurred today and the second one will occur not in October meeting, but in the December meeting. The end of October Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be barely four days before the midterm elections. Typically, the Fed does not hike just before the elections and I don't think it'll happen this time, either. The second hike, I think will take place at the December meeting. So, yes, I I am in the camp expecting two hikes in calendar year 2026.
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[28:10] So, as you look out into 2027, uh that is not the end of it because the Fed has to increase interest rate. Keep in mind the dot plot that was put out this afternoon showed no no interest rate increases in 2027. I think that is unrealistic. They show that inflation comes down to the 2% level, their target, only in 2029. And yet they are assuming no increase in interest rate in 2027. And that to me doesn't make any sense. I think they'll have to keep increasing interest rates unless they get cooperation on the fiscal side.
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[3:09] So, so they will raise rates. Um they historically do not want to disappoint markets when probabilities are even north of 75%. It's generally a lock that they will do what the markets are anticipating.
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The FOMC voted unanimously (12-0) on September 16, 2026 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, exactly as predicted. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[7:58] I do think that the longer oil stays elevated, the longer the inflation becomes imbred in the system... But ultimately, I think 50 basis points at this stage.
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[1:53] probabilities are now up to 90% for a one bas yeah yeah one 25 basis point rate hike and I think worsh is in a position where not to follow through with those market expectations would probably be a negative. So, if you'd asked me last week, I would have said 50/50. Uh, but just looking and reading over the weekend and seeing the current probabilities and uh everything that's happened, I think he's pretty much forced into a rate hike.
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The Federal Reserve raised rates by exactly 25 basis points at its September 16, 2026 meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote — precisely matching the prediction. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[19:28] I expect that they will raise rates. Do I I think it'll be a policy mistake. I don't think one rate hike will be a policy mistake, but if they raise their dots and they ratify what the market's priced in and then we're not talking about just one rate hike, but four or five, I don't think the economy can withstand it.
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4% at its September 16–17, 2026 meeting, confirmed by both the Federal Reserve's own implementation note and CNBC reporting. The prediction that the Fed would raise rates at the September 2026 meeting was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[15:58] This is why I still only expect one hike uh this year.
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[13:01] So, so I would say 80. So as I said before, Kevin Walsh said the market signals from now on will shape economic reality. Markets have spoken. They said and they want they expect a a hike. So if market says it's 90 almost 90%, 80% is 90% 80%. Because uh the Fed is going to listen to them under uh Kevin Worsh.
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The Fed did hike rates at its September 2026 meeting. The FOMC voted 12-0 on September 16, 2026 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, confirming the prediction was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[38:41] I personally don't think he's going to raise rates this September.
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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16, 2026 meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous 12-0 FOMC vote. The prediction that the Fed would NOT raise rates was incorrect. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[2:00] The middle ground here is that there would be no rate hike at all on the September 16th meeting. And I think that's his game plan here. Again, the Fed will have to show that they're independent. So, they certainly won't be cutting rates. But I think if we get a decent number next week on the CPI and PPI showing, you know, somewhat muted inflation, it'll open the door for that middle ground, which is probably his end goal here.
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The Fed did raise rates at the September 16, 2026 meeting. The FOMC voted 12-0 to increase the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate hike since July 2023. The prediction that there would be no rate hike was incorrect. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[5:52] I still think we don't get a rate hike this year.
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[4:00] I believe there is a very high probability uh that that the Fed will actually raise rates.
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The FOMC voted 12-0 on September 16, 2026 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4%, confirming the prediction that the Fed would raise rates at the September 2026 meeting. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[14:26] I don't think they're gonna raise. I mean, you know, I think that uh Kevin Walsh has a job to do... I don't believe we're going to get a rate hike.
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, voting unanimously 12-0. The prediction that the Fed would NOT hike rates was wrong. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[0:00] I just tell you right now I think the Fed is going to make a big blunder the markets and and now it's not just one rate hiking priced in it's multiple. Um and uh people seem to think it's what I said that why do we get a crisis after a new Fed chairman chairperson they got tested and now he's being tested and he's falling for the test
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[12:25] this notion that the Fed is going to cut anytime soon has just gone right out the window. Uh to hear him talk uh as you said, you know, first off, the Fed isn't going to be interventionist. It's not going to run in with the fire hoses anytime the market gets a little, you know, uh, discombobulated.
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[23:00] you can bet your bottom dollar that they're going to be increasing the Fed funds rate the next meeting. He he already has three members of the Federal Open Market Committee, by the way, who who already the last meeting they voted to increase rates. So, three three are going to definitely vote that way. And and it looks looks to me like Walsh will probably join them
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The FOMC voted unanimously (12-0) at its September 16, 2026 meeting to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00%, confirming the prediction that the Fed would hike rates at this meeting. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[0:07] My own view is they will defer until December. Now, how much they hike in December, that's it's too early to say. That will depend on what the headlines are, they'll depend on what the bond market is doing.
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[29:29] my guess is when December comes around, they're going to have to do some raising of interest rates.
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[27:51] remember they will not want to raise rates at the end of October. The October FOMC meeting is right before the midterm elections. I I don't think anyone ever expects the Fed to move interest rates right before an election. So, if they don't move in September, they have to wait till December.
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[3:54] we do believe that the Federal Reserve if they do raise rates that it will be a policy mistake here and ultimately it will need to be undone in the near future.
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[19:13] every time the Fed has hiked into a flattening curve. The curve has been right and the Fed has been, you know, too early on raising rates. So ultimately what would end up happening in that situation is the Fed will ultimately have to cut rates.
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[13:16] my takeaway is is that the Fed's probably not going to hike in September. Could they hike by the end of the year? Absolutely.
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The Fed voted 12-0 to raise its benchmark rate by 25 basis points at the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4%. The prediction that the Fed would NOT hike in September was wrong. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[4:34] it'd be kind of a surprise if they were to hike in September.
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The Federal Reserve did hike rates at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting, raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12-0 vote — its first hike since 2023. The prediction that there would be no hike was wrong. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[7:25] I think it will say probably one uh or um on a on a hawkish side, maybe two uh policy rate increases by the end of this year. Probably one, I would say.
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[13:04] He's going to raise interest rates, but not in September. Uh he made that very clear. They're certainly not going to do it. They say they're not political. That's nonsense. They're highly political. He's not going to raise interest rates before the midterm elections.
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[15:57] but they're probably going to raise rates in November. So, they'll adjust they adjust the prices today. They don't wait until November.
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[12:06] I think most of us think that Walsh is not going to raise rates. He's probably going to hold them steady when he should raise them and then at some point he's going to look for a place where he can actually cut them because that's the playbook, right?
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[13:38] I think you're going to see him overly hawkish. This is my prediction, right? And because it's meaningless. He can talk a big game because David, they need to be hawkish so that the longer end of the curve that people believe you could control inflation because that's what's going to move out on the longer end. So you're really in this catch 22 here. and then when they have the meeting in mid-September he won't raise rates.
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Warsh did sound hawkish at Jackson Hole, warning inflation had not meaningfully improved, but the prediction that he 'won't raise rates' at the September FOMC was wrong — the Fed unanimously hiked 25bps to 3.75%–4.00% on September 16, 2026. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[13:02] so the next 25 basis points could be either direction. The next 50 are going to be down. In other words, they can't raise much. They could raise a little, but they can't raise much um because they cause too much havoc.
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[21:23] I don't think we're going to see any governor's descent given the direction of the actual inflation data that have been reported because Kevin Worse would say, "Please justify for me given we have disinflationary winds blowing. Please explain to me why we should be tightening."
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The FOMC voted unanimously 12-0 to hike rates by 25 bps to 3.75%-4% on Sept 16, 2026, with Chair Warsh citing inflation as 'too high for too long.' The prediction's premise of disinflationary winds making a hike unjustifiable was wrong — the whole committee agreed on tightening. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[30:51] throughout this this process where we gone from expecting rate cuts to rate hikes really have have been have struggled to believe that that the Fed would go towards towards a rate hike. And it seems like at this point at least it's being vindicated somewhat with the Goldman Sachs and others also saying well the market's pricing in too much in terms of rate hikes because we may actually see the next move as being a cut.
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[9:19] So I think we are not going to see a hike. I think people have been too conditioned to talk about the reaction function. I think I think Wars' reaction function is not going to be that different than prior Feds.
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[11:04] I think inflation is going to stick in this 3 to 4% range, and then ultimately the labor market is going to continue to weaken here, um and we will see essentially a a mini stagflationary scenario in 2027.
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[4:14] we're we're moving down the spectrum towards where I where I'd expected we'd be towards the end of the year, which is more more likely a cut. Uh certainly no hikes and uh and whether it's in uh at the you know before the calendar turns or in the first quarter is kind of immaterial.
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[9:32] So, in our opinion, we do think the Federal Reserve is going to it's going to have to tighten monetary policy... when you think about where we are where we're headed for the next let's call it two to three months maybe even three to four months particularly when you get into the September October FOMC meetings is the fact that the this modest tailwind in the monetary policy cycle is likely to invert into a headwind.
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[0:00] He calculates that it's more likely than not the Federal Reserve will tighten this fall in order to appease the bond market and set itself up to start easing in early 2027.
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[6:39] will this dynamic force Kevin Borch and his colleagues at the FOMC to print. Uh yes is the answer.
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[11:03] I lean toward them hiking because at some point in time you can talk tough about inflation as Wars has done but you need to act... I lean in favour of them hiking in September.
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The Federal Reserve unanimously voted to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% at its September 15–16, 2026 FOMC meeting, confirming the prediction of a rate hike at the September 2026 meeting. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[10:09] now everybody's kind of expecting that it'll happen in September. The problem for him is he's getting kind of close to the midterm elections and the president President Trump's not going to be too happy uh if the Fed raises interest rates u between now and and the midterm elections.
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The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% at its September 16, 2026 meeting, confirming the prediction was correct. The FOMC voted 12-0 in favor of the hike, its first rate increase since 2023. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[41:23] I think they're going to try to use financial repression and uh that means the Fed is going to come in that would mean if if that's true, if my guess is true, that would mean an expansion of quantitative easing. And that means where the Fed directly purchases government bonds from the market to suppress interest rates. And specifically, I think they would be making purchases from the long end of the curve in terms of 10-year and 30-year government bonds
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[0:05] The Fed may be facing a series of rate hikes over the next 6 to 9 months.
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[11:03] 90% rate hike. Before the end of the year.
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[5:22] I think what you see from Warsh is ultimately a hawkish hold. He needs to talk down markets because we talk about how important the bond market is. Um but I don't think there is room for a hike.
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[7:44] markets have got, you know, a hike priced in. Um and markets have got a high enough probability of a hike in September that that he would be defying kind of precedent Fed president in not hiking in September. But but Julia, I don't think he cares.
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The Fed under Warsh raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4% at the September 15-16, 2026 FOMC meeting in a unanimous 12-0 vote, directly contradicting the prediction that Warsh would not hike. The move aligned with — rather than defied — market expectations of a hike. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/16/fed-rate-decision-september-2026.html)
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[1:46] I think the next move from the Fed will be a series of 50 basis point cuts and a normal reversion cycle in the stock market, which means recession.
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[2:51] I think I'm against the consensus. I think it's more than 50% likely they'll raise rates. And I think it's definitely likely 100% I'd say. They can never say 100% but they will definitely do something.
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[7:28] it's going to take about three to six months for them to um create the, you know, sort of academic political justification to do what I've just described, getting these outside experts to validate uh what Kevin Worsh believes, what I believe is the right thing to do, then they will be able to start implementing it. So, it's later this fall and as the inflation numbers come down, as I expect them to, they should be in a position to start this policy rebalancing
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[17:17] So, I think we have September, I'm going to say they should hike up by 50 basis points because they've been so inactive for such a long time. But, is that going to happen? No, it will not. At most, you're going to have a 25 basis point increase taking place.
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The Fed raised rates by exactly 25 basis points at its September 15–16, 2026 meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%, matching the prediction's 'at most 25 basis points' ceiling precisely. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[0:40] I'm expecting no rate hike, although I think they should. And I'm expecting several dissents and a rockus meeting that we won't know about. that there could be as many as five or six descents that it could be a 75 or 66 vote in order to not raise rates.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as predicted, but there were only 3 dissents (a 9-3 vote), not the 'five or six' dissents claimed. The prediction of no rate hike was correct, but the prediction of 5-6 dissents was significantly off. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[6:14] Wall Street is going to have to readjust to a Fed that's more uncertain. That 40% chance that the Fed is going to do a move that might be every meeting as you know as we go forward from here. a high degree of uncertainty about what's going to come because they don't offer forward guidance.
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[5:48] Yeah, I think it's safe to say that I'm skeptical that we're going to have rate hikes. Um, for a number of reasons.
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[2:48] I'm 100% saying they're going to hike. There's no there is no chance. If they let this go without a hike, then they're making even a bigger mistake.
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% at its September 16, 2026 meeting — a unanimous 12-0 vote — confirming the prediction of a rate hike around September 2026 was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[12:40] There's not a chance in heck that there's going to be a cut. And quite frankly, not cutting interest rates here can do more damage to the I'm sorry, not raising interest rates here can do more damage to the bond market than if they raised it.
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[14:58] I think he does nothing in before the uh midterms, because imagine the ire that's going to come from Capitol Hill at at from the White House. He if he was to cut rates. Well, there's only there's July and September. So, he didn't raise rates in this past meeting. He has a meeting com- coming up in a few days now. Uh end of July. Um he he's not going to really I don't think he's going to raise rates into a declining second derivative basis of inflation. I don't think he's going to do that. So, then you're talking about September and October meetings, which is just prior to the midterms. So, he doesn't do anything
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[15:30] I think what he does is he has this task force. They meet and they say, 'Oh, here's my backup. I can now start after the midterms to start to reduce the Fed's balance sheet.'
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[24:28] I think Warsh and his symposium or or task force starts to shrink that balance sheet next year, and that could engender the recession.
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[34:36] they will fold immediately to the first signs of discomfort... Kevin Worsh is going to be at the epicenter of people looking for answers when this shit hits the fan. And politically his hand is going to be forced uh to act. I don't think he's going to stand idly by and allow the equity market to crash 50% or, you know, 40%.
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[14:44] Our guess is the Fed does nothing this year.
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[27:28] But the reality, if he's trying to raise rates into a supply shock and crashes the economy into recession, it's not it's not going to last very long, in my opinion. He'll eventually give up, cut rates, uh real interest rates will decline, investors will see where it's leading and go right back piling into precious metals again.
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[18:53] there should be a rate hike in September in my opinion, okay, whether or not President Trump can can prevent them from doing that
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% at its September 16, 2026 meeting, its first hike since 2023, confirming the prediction was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[7:01] I would at most expect one rate hike the end of this or later in this year and possibly no rate hikes and even cuts as early as next year.
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[14:17] I think this for the next couple years we're going to have more dissents at each meeting than we're accustomed to.
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[13:36] I don't buy into it. I don't think we're going to see rate hikes. I really don't think that that's going to be the case. um and uh in the next 12 months. Uh and maybe we see one maybe maybe I'm wrong and we see one of them
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[22:28] and why I think they're certainly not cutting but I disagree with the market and thinking that they're going to hike I think Kevin Worsh is just going to sit tight for a while... these task forces may go through year end. So that gives me another reason why I think they're doing nothing this year.
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[5:56] I think the most likely path going forward is that we're going to see the Fed do a whole lot of nothing for some time to come.
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[6:37] I think the Fed's going to do nothing. I think inflation is going to vaccillate between these two sides.
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The Federal Reserve voted 9-3 on July 29, 2026 to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%–3.75%, exactly as predicted. The Fed held rates for the fifth consecutive meeting, matching the prediction of 'doing nothing.' (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm)
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[7:46] I'm not expecting anything at all at the July meeting.
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The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at its July 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, voting 9-3 to keep rates unchanged, exactly as predicted. Three regional presidents dissented in favor of a hike, but no rate change was made. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[10:18] 76% just north of 76% they don't see a cut in 2026 and just north of 17% think that we'll have exactly one cut. Do you think we'll see a cut at all this year or is that... Well, I don't think the next move is going to be a hike.
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[5:17] I think I I maybe I'm being a contrarian on this, but I don't see rate hikes and I I think you're on the same page with me there... even if that were to happen, which I do not believe
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[11:05] I think we could even potentially see an easing of rates. I don't think that's going to happen in the next meeting or the next two meetings.
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[4:51] I think a lot of the pressure on the Fed to raise rates will perhaps be removed.
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[26:44] I don't think the Fed is going to hike in 2026. Um, I am I am uh, you know, out of step with uh, with the bond market in that in that view.
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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar 2026.
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[34:51] what that means is the market has gone from expecting a Fed rate cut to likely expecting a Fed rate hike in the next who knows in the next couple quarters or something like that.
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[3:42] we think the odds are more likely that the Fed is the next thing the Fed's going to do. We don't know when it's going to be, but we'll likely cut, not hike. And the market right now is expecting a hike.
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[3:46] Let's just say they're on the same page. They're on the same page. And what is the page? The page is it's all you know the whole world revolves around the president now... you've got three spokes or three legs on that stool of needing loose money. Government runaway deficit, um industrial buildout and AI buildout. You you've got to have a printaththon.
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[5:37] we think there is still material risk of the Fed uh tightening monetary policy over the medium-term. Let's call it in the first in the next one to two quarters.
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[10:09] the net result of these five task forces are are are doubbish... if you don't mind I can kind of walk you through what we're thinking in terms of those task forces and why we think the Fed has to be you know more tight now more more hawkish now so that it can ultimately create the scope for that
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[11:25] you know the Federal Reserve will have a serious inflation problem in 2027 if they go from today to tomorrow which is where we think they're going tomorrow which is more easy
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[20:16] So right now as we're sitting here two-year yields are about 50 basis points above the effective federal funds rate that suggests the Fed is likely to hike rates right fed fund futures market is pricing a cut sorry a hike in December... Our guess is, this is just our best guess is uh they do nothing here, at least in the near term.
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[25:42] I I I would I would say that the chances of them lowering that, meaning gooseing in in their eyes is pretty low. Well, as you saw in the chart, I think it's non-existent.
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[31:31] I'm here to say I don't believe that's going to happen. In fact, I think it's probably the same equivalent chance that between now and the year end, they're going to actually cut rates.
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[20:57] I think maybe you get at one at most two quarter point rate hikes in the next 6 to 12 months from the Fed. And if if that's really all you're looking at, um, that's just not that big a deal.
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[3:08] my suspicion is towards the end of this year, you will see them capitulate uh and both force interest rates down to the extent that they can and uh monetize uh the debt and deficits including the debt uh associated with the recent Iran conflict through quantitative easing.
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[5:03] I don't believe that Worsh is going to make that choice. I think when it comes down to it and his back is to the wall and he's asked to choose between the lesser of those two evils, he's going to do what everybody else has done and he's going to choose inflation.
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[2:14] He doesn't want to provide uh forward guidance. I also think we may see the dot plots go away.
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[23:51] Well, there's not going to be a cut. No, and and it's unfortunate because so many business executives and and leaders in different industries were banking on a cut. And they're not going to get it.
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[18:59] I I think 90/10 is a pretty aggressive uh position on that. I I'd be I'd be a little bit more split on neutral to to you know, one one hike.
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[11:11] I I think they probably will be forced to tighten up and the reason for that is that the inflation genie is out of the bottle it's at 4.2% 2% now and I and and the target is 2%. That's over double a target. It's not even close to the target. So, it's very hard to argue against not squeezing and tightening things down with with when you have inflation running over double its target rate.
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[17:43] My sense is that he's going to have his his task force um you know working day and night to figure out a way to justify a lower you know inflation number. he's going to get a little bit of relief out of the Middle East with you know oil prices we all know have just dropped substantially and you know that's going to be that combination is going to allow him to ease at the next meeting
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The July 28–29, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in rates being held steady at 3.5%–3.75%; there was no cut. In fact, three dissenters preferred to raise rates, the opposite of what was predicted. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html)
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[2:33] I think that they're going to go up. I think the Fed is going to be raising rates at least one time, probably October at this point.
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[0:29:08] he said, 'We got to review the ample reserve system that we have.' ... And so expect some changes there.
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[13:42] I agree with market expectations. I have been saying on your show, David, as well as in my writings, even before the Iran war, that the Fed should be increasing the interest rate to keep inflation under control... interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.
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[1:43] the movement not only in inflation up until this point as well as some of the Fed governors zero chance of a of a cut which many people thought a few months ago would happen uh also I think fairly zero chance of a raise
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[2:00] did they take the wording out which previously has suggested there could be a cut in the future that I think is a strong chance likely as well. But to keep the guy who helped get him in off his back maybe the first few weeks, he might try to leave it in some way in.
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[27:22] I think the Fed will be making the next move a cut and has nothing to do with Kevin Morris having a cow tout at President Trump. That's not going to happen. It's going to be the data. I think people will be surprised where inflation is by year end. And I think they'll be surprised at how weak the US economy is by year end as well.
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[18:19] rate cuts are off the table, so forget rate cuts. Uh now, so the question is, will the Fed continue the pause, which has been in place since last December, or will they raise? That's a close question... I think it's close. I don't want to put a stake in the ground but don't be surprised if they raise rates. Now that's a stupid thing to do. That that that's my forecast. It's a big mistake, but it's the Fed.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote on June 17, 2026, continuing the pause rather than raising rates as predicted. While the dot plot turned hawkish (signaling a possible future hike), no actual rate increase occurred at this meeting. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[4:27] It is reasonable to expect um an a bias towards easy money whether the circumstances merit it or not.
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[12:37] particularly with a changing at the Federal Reserve in the United States here with Kevin Warsh coming in, he's actually been fairly explicit that he's looking to redefine exactly what inflation is and redefine a lot of these parameters which ultimately, and I might be getting ahead of myself here, I think it's kind of a way to push through more of this nominal growth visa vis inflation transmission mechanism without necessarily having to explain for it and perhaps having a um cover to maybe be a little bit more dovish whether it's with rates or the Fed balance sheet.
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[12:26] I believe that's what's going to happen when Kevin Worsh comes in. And I think this is part of the market positioning um that has been evolving in the wake of the Iran war even with the higher spikes we've seen in oil driving higher inflation costs is that we're going to see more bond buying from central banks whether it's called QE whether it's um less runoffs
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[40:50] Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months
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[19:20] I think that over the next 12 months, assuming the war is ended, not ended, but like some type of fugazi deal uh or real deal in the next couple of weeks that gives him the runway by the end of the year to probably do a cut before the end of this year, which is non-consensus. And if you want to, you know, place a a high high return bet on those gambling poly markets or whatever you're referring to, that's probably the one to do. Everyone's betting on a hike. They'll probably wind up with a cut
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[19:54] he'll follow through again probably next year as well. And I don't think he'll have much more room to do a lot more than that regardless of how much uh liquidity he stops up by selling bonds on the open market.
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[14:13] I think we could even see a hike this year, particularly after the midterm elections. So that creates a context in 27 of global liquidity tightening.
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[31:20] I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of the committee in favor of a rate hike in July.
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The FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates steady at the July 29, 2026 meeting. Only 3 of 12 voting members (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) favored a rate hike — far short of a majority. The prediction that a majority would favor a hike was wrong. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm)
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[12:32] I think circumstances as of right now, the Fed's not going to be cutting. Now, I don't necessarily think that they're going to hike, but the long end of the bond market has already hiked for them.
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[6:49] I disagree with that... Bond markets price in hikes and then they're never delivered. I think we're seeing a repeat of that.
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[7:30] I was pricing in one to two cuts this year. That's now completely off the table. I'm now thinking on hold for the rest of the year.
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[32:06] I think the Fed is probably going to cut here some at some point even though um you know the stock market is is going parabolic.
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[10:25] the Fed will find uh as even under Kevin Wars who who wants to cut will find it very hard to to cut. So um and we so that's the gist of the growth picture just based on growth alone it is not weak enough to justify uh for uh for Kevin Ward to find evidence to cut.
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[10:31] Oh, I can't see how they cut rates at all. I mean, they would really they would look they would be looked on poorly if they did that.
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[6:03] I think the Fed is not going to raise rates. I think the Fed will be cutting sometime towards the end of this year.
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[17:49] I have a very hard time imagining that Worsh would raise rates as his first um course of action. Um you know I think that they believe that this oil price situation is is going to be transitory... and that um once they wrap up this Iran thing, oil prices are going to come crashing downward... I I think that's probably what he'll do is he'll he'll expect that uh this is just short-lived and uh give it a minute and he'll have an opportunity to cut.
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[14:06] I personally don't think he believes those anymore and that he'll moderate to a more of a neutral stance. And that's where I think we're going to be for the next several months.
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[13:31] I don't think they're going to hike at that meeting.
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The Fed voted unanimously 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 17, 2026 meeting, confirming the prediction was correct. No rate hike occurred at that meeting. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[27:01] as we get towards the end of this year, um that the evidence will become more will become stronger that we have an inflationary problem and therefore you need to be raising rates. Now whether we will do that, the pressure that will be on the Fed not to do that is the question I cannot answer for sure. It depends on how this FOMC goes. But then as you get into next year, I think the odds on a rate increase are much higher. Uh and and I don't know how they avoid it.
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[11:25] the central banks and the Fed in particular are going to have to expand the balance sheets, become dovish at some point to save the bond market because the government runs on those IUs and they'll sacrifice the currency to do that. Whether that happens this month, next month, or the end of the year is irrelevant to me. That's the endgame. That's the direction.
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[7:35] I think we're going to start to see more and more talk of rate hikes to deal with this, you know, simply due to the understanding that it's it's much more than than an oil situation.
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[10:40] Uh the Fed's not going to cut until inflation falls... he wants to hike rates a little bit further because inflation is dramatically out of control, especially with the high price of oil.
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[30:28] He'll be confirmed by the Senate the same way, straight down party lines. But for now, the GOP controls the Senate. He will be confirmed.
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[29:39] All I know is is the Fed is going to turn ultra dovish while claiming to be ultra hawkish. They're They're going to go on a a complete printing bender.
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[28:40] Fed meeting coming up end of April... What do you think? Do you think cuts are on the table or no or hope? No.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, making no cut. This was the third consecutive pause, with markets pricing in a 100% chance of no change. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
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[6:06] This is going to go down as one of the biggest policy errors in the history of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is going to ignore what's staring them in the face and keep monetary policy overly tight into recession.
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[18:45] My my view is the Fed's not going to do anything. It's too early. Um cut or hike, it's too early
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[13:30] I think late in the year, uh, there will be kind of I'm not calling for a hike. I'm actually calling for nothing to be done, but the Fed will start communicating and start leaning uh, hawkish towards the end of the year
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[8:08] given current debt levels, the things that we've all studied for 20 years and given oil at 100 and malinvestment and shaky credits, uh there is absolutely no chance the Fed's next move is going to be tightening.
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[8:37] We're going to go from three K uh three cuts expected to zero and maybe even hikes coming in later in the year as inflation really bounces
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[27:52] I don't think the Fed's going to cut much. I think that's a bit of a contrary opinion right now.
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[35:29] 92% no change. Okay. So that's that's where I am. I'm I'm with the market. I'm with the market.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 11-1 vote to keep rates unchanged — exactly as predicted. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm)
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[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.
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At the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chair — the committee voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, not cut them by 50 basis points. In fact, nine of 18 FOMC members signaled a rate hike may be needed later in 2026 due to elevated inflation. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[6:28] So my expectation more rather than less. I'm going to expect one more cut in January to take place.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January 27-28, 2026 meeting, not cutting by 25 basis points as predicted. The FOMC voted to maintain the target range unchanged, pausing after three consecutive cuts in the fall of 2025. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm)
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[4:43] I think the Fed is kind of a bit stuck in terms of its ability to respond uh policy-wise uh as aggressively as they might otherwise. I think that inflation is telling them one thing and labor market is telling them something else. So, we're going to get, you know, maybe one or two more cuts over the next 6 months, but not a lot.
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From the prediction date of Nov 23, 2025, the Fed made exactly two more cuts (November and December 2025, each 25bps), then held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% through at least April 2026 — matching the forecast of 'one or two more cuts, but not a lot.' (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
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[5:14] my base case would be 50, but I don't think 75 is off the table
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[10:00] The Fed's tools are completely inadequate to a stagflationary environment. It's they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. So what do they do? I I can't tell you what they will do. Uh I'm guessing that they will probably heir on the side of throwing the dollar under the bus. that meaning loosen make easy money easier to support the labor market.
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The Fed cut rates three times in late 2025 (totaling 175 bps since peak), resumed quantitative easing with $40B/month Treasury purchases, and the dollar (DXY) fell ~11% in H1 2025 to multi-year lows near 96-97 — broadly consistent with 'throwing the dollar under the bus' to support the labor market, even as inflation remained above target. (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
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[10:45] I think we've got to go at least two. And I think that's all we're going to get. Uh we should probably do 75 to 100 basis points.
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The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 (September, November, December), each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points. This satisfies the prediction's minimum of 'at least two cuts' (50 bps) and lands squarely within the stated optimal range of 75–100 bps. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
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[14:11] Fed isn't hawkish. It's totally dovish. It has no choice. The ECB is going to be dovish. It has no choice. The Bank of Japan has no choice. They're going to debase the currencies.
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The prediction was wrong on all three central banks: the ECB raised rates by 25 bps in June 2026, the Bank of Japan hiked to 1.0% as part of its tightening cycle, and the Fed held steady with growing hawkish dissents and a new hawkish chair — none pursued the dovish/debasement policies claimed. (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html)
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[37:21] I mean, maybe they cut once, but it's not, you know, this is not um I think a lot of people really popped up on this idea that that there's going to be, you know, a shadow fed chair and that the the Fed's going to be pushed into uh easing materially. Like, I'd probably describe it this way. If we get anything more than roughly, you know, zero or one cuts, um it's the type of conditions that you sure don't want to be holding equities in.
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025 (starting in September), ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%. The prediction of 'zero to one cuts' was incorrect. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
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[26:10] They're expecting two cuts this this year. Is that is that reasonable for you? I think there's a good chance we get no cuts.
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The prediction that the Fed would make no rate cuts in 2025 was wrong. The Fed actually made three consecutive quarter-point cuts starting in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
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[16:46] I think right now they're pricing in two rate cuts the remainder of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we have three by year end
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The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 — in September, October/November, and December 10, 2025 — ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly matching the prediction of three cuts by year end. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
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[37:21] I think I think let me just add by the way uh the Fed will be scrambling to cut interest rates in the second half of the year
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The Fed did cut interest rates in the second half of 2025, beginning in September 2025 and making three consecutive quarter-point cuts (September, October, December), lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. However, the cuts were measured and deliberate, not a 'scramble' — they were debated and even contested within the FOMC, with the December cut passing only 9-3. The prediction's framing of 'scrambling' implies urgency or panic that didn't materialize, but the directional call (cuts in H2 2025) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
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[26:18] I think the Fed's going to be forced to lower rates this summer
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Fed held rates steady throughout summer 2025 (June–August) and only cut at the September 16-17, 2025 FOMC meeting (effective September 18), which is at the very end of summer/start of fall — not 'summer' in the conventional June–August sense. The prediction of a summer rate cut was not literally fulfilled. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250917.htm)
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[20:02] I I think it's at least 6 months down the road.
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