Fed Funds Rate Predictions
Browse Fed Funds Rate market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[22:28] and why I think they're certainly not cutting but I disagree with the market and thinking that they're going to hike I think Kevin Worsh is just going to sit tight for a while... these task forces may go through year end. So that gives me another reason why I think they're doing nothing this year.
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[5:56] I think the most likely path going forward is that we're going to see the Fed do a whole lot of nothing for some time to come.
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[6:37] I think the Fed's going to do nothing. I think inflation is going to vaccillate between these two sides.
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[7:46] I'm not expecting anything at all at the July meeting.
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[10:18] 76% just north of 76% they don't see a cut in 2026 and just north of 17% think that we'll have exactly one cut. Do you think we'll see a cut at all this year or is that... Well, I don't think the next move is going to be a hike.
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[5:17] I think I I maybe I'm being a contrarian on this, but I don't see rate hikes and I I think you're on the same page with me there... even if that were to happen, which I do not believe
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[11:05] I think we could even potentially see an easing of rates. I don't think that's going to happen in the next meeting or the next two meetings.
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[4:51] I think a lot of the pressure on the Fed to raise rates will perhaps be removed.
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[26:44] I don't think the Fed is going to hike in 2026. Um, I am I am uh, you know, out of step with uh, with the bond market in that in that view.
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[5:48] I think there's less pressure on the US Fed to lower interest rates. I think ultimately they will, but I don't think they'll have to in calendar 2026.
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[34:51] what that means is the market has gone from expecting a Fed rate cut to likely expecting a Fed rate hike in the next who knows in the next couple quarters or something like that.
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[3:42] we think the odds are more likely that the Fed is the next thing the Fed's going to do. We don't know when it's going to be, but we'll likely cut, not hike. And the market right now is expecting a hike.
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[3:46] Let's just say they're on the same page. They're on the same page. And what is the page? The page is it's all you know the whole world revolves around the president now... you've got three spokes or three legs on that stool of needing loose money. Government runaway deficit, um industrial buildout and AI buildout. You you've got to have a printaththon.
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[5:37] we think there is still material risk of the Fed uh tightening monetary policy over the medium-term. Let's call it in the first in the next one to two quarters.
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[10:09] the net result of these five task forces are are are doubbish... if you don't mind I can kind of walk you through what we're thinking in terms of those task forces and why we think the Fed has to be you know more tight now more more hawkish now so that it can ultimately create the scope for that
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[11:25] you know the Federal Reserve will have a serious inflation problem in 2027 if they go from today to tomorrow which is where we think they're going tomorrow which is more easy
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[20:16] So right now as we're sitting here two-year yields are about 50 basis points above the effective federal funds rate that suggests the Fed is likely to hike rates right fed fund futures market is pricing a cut sorry a hike in December... Our guess is, this is just our best guess is uh they do nothing here, at least in the near term.
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[25:42] I I I would I would say that the chances of them lowering that, meaning gooseing in in their eyes is pretty low. Well, as you saw in the chart, I think it's non-existent.
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[31:31] I'm here to say I don't believe that's going to happen. In fact, I think it's probably the same equivalent chance that between now and the year end, they're going to actually cut rates.
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[20:57] I think maybe you get at one at most two quarter point rate hikes in the next 6 to 12 months from the Fed. And if if that's really all you're looking at, um, that's just not that big a deal.
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[3:08] my suspicion is towards the end of this year, you will see them capitulate uh and both force interest rates down to the extent that they can and uh monetize uh the debt and deficits including the debt uh associated with the recent Iran conflict through quantitative easing.
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[8:25] I don't think so. Um, I do think that we're already seeing a crack in the AI narrative... the Fed is unlikely to hike rates as we will start to see a slowdown later this year.
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[5:03] I don't believe that Worsh is going to make that choice. I think when it comes down to it and his back is to the wall and he's asked to choose between the lesser of those two evils, he's going to do what everybody else has done and he's going to choose inflation.
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[2:14] He doesn't want to provide uh forward guidance. I also think we may see the dot plots go away.
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[23:51] Well, there's not going to be a cut. No, and and it's unfortunate because so many business executives and and leaders in different industries were banking on a cut. And they're not going to get it.
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[18:59] I I think 90/10 is a pretty aggressive uh position on that. I I'd be I'd be a little bit more split on neutral to to you know, one one hike.
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[11:11] I I think they probably will be forced to tighten up and the reason for that is that the inflation genie is out of the bottle it's at 4.2% 2% now and I and and the target is 2%. That's over double a target. It's not even close to the target. So, it's very hard to argue against not squeezing and tightening things down with with when you have inflation running over double its target rate.
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[17:43] My sense is that he's going to have his his task force um you know working day and night to figure out a way to justify a lower you know inflation number. he's going to get a little bit of relief out of the Middle East with you know oil prices we all know have just dropped substantially and you know that's going to be that combination is going to allow him to ease at the next meeting
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[2:33] I think that they're going to go up. I think the Fed is going to be raising rates at least one time, probably October at this point.
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[0:29:08] he said, 'We got to review the ample reserve system that we have.' ... And so expect some changes there.
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[13:42] I agree with market expectations. I have been saying on your show, David, as well as in my writings, even before the Iran war, that the Fed should be increasing the interest rate to keep inflation under control... interest rate increases perhaps more than one is more likely than interest rate being kept the same or even cut as the president would want it to happen.
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[1:43] the movement not only in inflation up until this point as well as some of the Fed governors zero chance of a of a cut which many people thought a few months ago would happen uh also I think fairly zero chance of a raise
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[2:00] did they take the wording out which previously has suggested there could be a cut in the future that I think is a strong chance likely as well. But to keep the guy who helped get him in off his back maybe the first few weeks, he might try to leave it in some way in.
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[27:22] I think the Fed will be making the next move a cut and has nothing to do with Kevin Morris having a cow tout at President Trump. That's not going to happen. It's going to be the data. I think people will be surprised where inflation is by year end. And I think they'll be surprised at how weak the US economy is by year end as well.
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[18:19] rate cuts are off the table, so forget rate cuts. Uh now, so the question is, will the Fed continue the pause, which has been in place since last December, or will they raise? That's a close question... I think it's close. I don't want to put a stake in the ground but don't be surprised if they raise rates. Now that's a stupid thing to do. That that that's my forecast. It's a big mistake, but it's the Fed.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% in a unanimous 12-0 vote on June 17, 2026, continuing the pause rather than raising rates as predicted. While the dot plot turned hawkish (signaling a possible future hike), no actual rate increase occurred at this meeting. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[4:27] It is reasonable to expect um an a bias towards easy money whether the circumstances merit it or not.
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[30:13] I expect a very measured I mean, this is going to be how Kevin Worsh is remembered going forward. His first press conference. He's going to be very measured, very calming, and he's probably going to walk the line of saying, 'Hey, listen. We're not going to cut rates, but we're here if the economy weakens to cut rates, and we're also going to make sure we monitor inflation.' So, I think it's going to be a very like right down the middle description. Um, but I don't expect a rate hike or cut.
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The Fed under Kevin Warsh unanimously held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting, with no hike or cut — exactly as predicted. The Federal Reserve's official statement confirmed the decision to 'maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.' (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[12:37] particularly with a changing at the Federal Reserve in the United States here with Kevin Warsh coming in, he's actually been fairly explicit that he's looking to redefine exactly what inflation is and redefine a lot of these parameters which ultimately, and I might be getting ahead of myself here, I think it's kind of a way to push through more of this nominal growth visa vis inflation transmission mechanism without necessarily having to explain for it and perhaps having a um cover to maybe be a little bit more dovish whether it's with rates or the Fed balance sheet.
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[12:26] I believe that's what's going to happen when Kevin Worsh comes in. And I think this is part of the market positioning um that has been evolving in the wake of the Iran war even with the higher spikes we've seen in oil driving higher inflation costs is that we're going to see more bond buying from central banks whether it's called QE whether it's um less runoffs
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[40:50] Contrarian call - Fed must raise rates in 12 months
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[19:20] I think that over the next 12 months, assuming the war is ended, not ended, but like some type of fugazi deal uh or real deal in the next couple of weeks that gives him the runway by the end of the year to probably do a cut before the end of this year, which is non-consensus. And if you want to, you know, place a a high high return bet on those gambling poly markets or whatever you're referring to, that's probably the one to do. Everyone's betting on a hike. They'll probably wind up with a cut
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[19:54] he'll follow through again probably next year as well. And I don't think he'll have much more room to do a lot more than that regardless of how much uh liquidity he stops up by selling bonds on the open market.
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[14:13] I think we could even see a hike this year, particularly after the midterm elections. So that creates a context in 27 of global liquidity tightening.
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[31:20] I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of the committee in favor of a rate hike in July.
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[12:32] I think circumstances as of right now, the Fed's not going to be cutting. Now, I don't necessarily think that they're going to hike, but the long end of the bond market has already hiked for them.
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[6:49] I disagree with that... Bond markets price in hikes and then they're never delivered. I think we're seeing a repeat of that.
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[7:30] I was pricing in one to two cuts this year. That's now completely off the table. I'm now thinking on hold for the rest of the year.
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[32:06] I think the Fed is probably going to cut here some at some point even though um you know the stock market is is going parabolic.
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[10:25] the Fed will find uh as even under Kevin Wars who who wants to cut will find it very hard to to cut. So um and we so that's the gist of the growth picture just based on growth alone it is not weak enough to justify uh for uh for Kevin Ward to find evidence to cut.
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[10:31] Oh, I can't see how they cut rates at all. I mean, they would really they would look they would be looked on poorly if they did that.
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[6:03] I think the Fed is not going to raise rates. I think the Fed will be cutting sometime towards the end of this year.
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[17:49] I have a very hard time imagining that Worsh would raise rates as his first um course of action. Um you know I think that they believe that this oil price situation is is going to be transitory... and that um once they wrap up this Iran thing, oil prices are going to come crashing downward... I I think that's probably what he'll do is he'll he'll expect that uh this is just short-lived and uh give it a minute and he'll have an opportunity to cut.
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[14:06] I personally don't think he believes those anymore and that he'll moderate to a more of a neutral stance. And that's where I think we're going to be for the next several months.
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[13:31] I don't think they're going to hike at that meeting.
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The Fed voted unanimously 12-0 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% at its June 17, 2026 meeting, confirming the prediction was correct. No rate hike occurred at that meeting. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[27:01] as we get towards the end of this year, um that the evidence will become more will become stronger that we have an inflationary problem and therefore you need to be raising rates. Now whether we will do that, the pressure that will be on the Fed not to do that is the question I cannot answer for sure. It depends on how this FOMC goes. But then as you get into next year, I think the odds on a rate increase are much higher. Uh and and I don't know how they avoid it.
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[11:25] the central banks and the Fed in particular are going to have to expand the balance sheets, become dovish at some point to save the bond market because the government runs on those IUs and they'll sacrifice the currency to do that. Whether that happens this month, next month, or the end of the year is irrelevant to me. That's the endgame. That's the direction.
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[7:35] I think we're going to start to see more and more talk of rate hikes to deal with this, you know, simply due to the understanding that it's it's much more than than an oil situation.
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[10:40] Uh the Fed's not going to cut until inflation falls... he wants to hike rates a little bit further because inflation is dramatically out of control, especially with the high price of oil.
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[30:28] He'll be confirmed by the Senate the same way, straight down party lines. But for now, the GOP controls the Senate. He will be confirmed.
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[29:39] All I know is is the Fed is going to turn ultra dovish while claiming to be ultra hawkish. They're They're going to go on a a complete printing bender.
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[28:40] Fed meeting coming up end of April... What do you think? Do you think cuts are on the table or no or hope? No.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% at the April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting, making no cut. This was the third consecutive pause, with markets pricing in a 100% chance of no change. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260429a.htm)
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[6:06] This is going to go down as one of the biggest policy errors in the history of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve is going to ignore what's staring them in the face and keep monetary policy overly tight into recession.
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[18:45] My my view is the Fed's not going to do anything. It's too early. Um cut or hike, it's too early
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[13:30] I think late in the year, uh, there will be kind of I'm not calling for a hike. I'm actually calling for nothing to be done, but the Fed will start communicating and start leaning uh, hawkish towards the end of the year
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[8:08] given current debt levels, the things that we've all studied for 20 years and given oil at 100 and malinvestment and shaky credits, uh there is absolutely no chance the Fed's next move is going to be tightening.
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[8:37] We're going to go from three K uh three cuts expected to zero and maybe even hikes coming in later in the year as inflation really bounces
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[27:52] I don't think the Fed's going to cut much. I think that's a bit of a contrary opinion right now.
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[35:29] 92% no change. Okay. So that's that's where I am. I'm I'm with the market. I'm with the market.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with an 11-1 vote to keep rates unchanged — exactly as predicted. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260318a.htm)
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[10:41] I think that that could be a good way for him to um for worse to come into office if indeed Powell does stand pat uh through the end of his term.
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At the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh's first as Fed chair — the committee voted unanimously to hold rates steady at 3.5%–3.75%, not cut them by 50 basis points. In fact, nine of 18 FOMC members signaled a rate hike may be needed later in 2026 due to elevated inflation. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm)
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[6:28] So my expectation more rather than less. I'm going to expect one more cut in January to take place.
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The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January 27-28, 2026 meeting, not cutting by 25 basis points as predicted. The FOMC voted to maintain the target range unchanged, pausing after three consecutive cuts in the fall of 2025. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260128a.htm)
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[4:43] I think the Fed is kind of a bit stuck in terms of its ability to respond uh policy-wise uh as aggressively as they might otherwise. I think that inflation is telling them one thing and labor market is telling them something else. So, we're going to get, you know, maybe one or two more cuts over the next 6 months, but not a lot.
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From the prediction date of Nov 23, 2025, the Fed made exactly two more cuts (November and December 2025, each 25bps), then held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% through at least April 2026 — matching the forecast of 'one or two more cuts, but not a lot.' (https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate)
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[5:14] my base case would be 50, but I don't think 75 is off the table
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[10:00] The Fed's tools are completely inadequate to a stagflationary environment. It's they're damned if they do and they're damned if they don't. So what do they do? I I can't tell you what they will do. Uh I'm guessing that they will probably heir on the side of throwing the dollar under the bus. that meaning loosen make easy money easier to support the labor market.
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[10:45] I think we've got to go at least two. And I think that's all we're going to get. Uh we should probably do 75 to 100 basis points.
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The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 (September, November, December), each by 25 basis points, totaling 75 basis points. This satisfies the prediction's minimum of 'at least two cuts' (50 bps) and lands squarely within the stated optimal range of 75–100 bps. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
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[14:11] Fed isn't hawkish. It's totally dovish. It has no choice. The ECB is going to be dovish. It has no choice. The Bank of Japan has no choice. They're going to debase the currencies.
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The prediction was wrong on all three central banks: the ECB raised rates by 25 bps in June 2026, the Bank of Japan hiked to 1.0% as part of its tightening cycle, and the Fed held steady with growing hawkish dissents and a new hawkish chair — none pursued the dovish/debasement policies claimed. (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2026/html/ecb.mp260611~4d41bd5e83.en.html)
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[37:21] I mean, maybe they cut once, but it's not, you know, this is not um I think a lot of people really popped up on this idea that that there's going to be, you know, a shadow fed chair and that the the Fed's going to be pushed into uh easing materially. Like, I'd probably describe it this way. If we get anything more than roughly, you know, zero or one cuts, um it's the type of conditions that you sure don't want to be holding equities in.
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The Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025 (starting in September), ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%. The prediction of 'zero to one cuts' was incorrect. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
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[26:10] They're expecting two cuts this this year. Is that is that reasonable for you? I think there's a good chance we get no cuts.
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The prediction that the Fed would make no rate cuts in 2025 was wrong. The Fed actually made three consecutive quarter-point cuts starting in September 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50%–3.75% by year-end. (https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/markets-and-economy/economy/fed-meeting-january-2026)
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[16:46] I think right now they're pricing in two rate cuts the remainder of the year. I wouldn't be surprised if we have three by year end
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The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 — in September, October/November, and December 10, 2025 — ending the year with the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, exactly matching the prediction of three cuts by year end. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
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[37:21] I think I think let me just add by the way uh the Fed will be scrambling to cut interest rates in the second half of the year
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The Fed did cut interest rates in the second half of 2025, beginning in September 2025 and making three consecutive quarter-point cuts (September, October, December), lowering the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75%. However, the cuts were measured and deliberate, not a 'scramble' — they were debated and even contested within the FOMC, with the December cut passing only 9-3. The prediction's framing of 'scrambling' implies urgency or panic that didn't materialize, but the directional call (cuts in H2 2025) was correct. (https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/fed-interest-rate-decision-december-2025-.html)
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[26:18] I think the Fed's going to be forced to lower rates this summer
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The Fed held rates steady throughout summer 2025 (June–August) and only cut at the September 16-17, 2025 FOMC meeting (effective September 18), which is at the very end of summer/start of fall — not 'summer' in the conventional June–August sense. The prediction of a summer rate cut was not literally fulfilled. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20250917.htm)
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[20:02] I I think it's at least 6 months down the road.
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