Todd Horwitz Predictions
Trader
Track Todd Horwitz's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[4:16] I'm looking for oil to be below 70 before the year is out.
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[4:33] I think this week, I think we'll probably see 85 before the week is over.
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The prediction claimed oil would reach $85 during the week of October 6, 2026. The price on the prediction date was already $89.44, and the period low was $86.86, meaning oil never dropped to $85 — it was already above $85 the entire week. The bullish prediction of reaching $85 was already exceeded before the prediction was even made, so the target was met (and surpassed).
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[7:14] I think we're going to see a good shot at 6% before year-end. You know, we talked in the summer. I said we get 5% by September and I think we have a real good shot to get to 6% because there's A of demand for money and you're you're you're pushing it out and you've got all these deals out there which is going to raise the cost of money and the cost of interest rates.
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[12:16] I think the rates are going higher, yes. I I do think I could see a 9% mortgage.
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[13:51] I think we've seen the bear market in in gold certainly. I mean, listen, gold dropped 35% from its highs. So, I think we're now going to start to see that move higher again.
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[16:26] I think the dollar's got a chance to see 104 105 if not higher.
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[15:56] I believe the euro currency has a chance to go below par. It's trading at about 112 right now.
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[18:29] I still think there's a major meltdown coming. But at the end of the day and I think the interest rates may be the the the crucial thing that pushes them over the top if we do get the 6% but right now you have no participation in these markets.
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[25:10] Certainly, I if we got the 8,000 S&P, it would not surprise me one bit.
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[19:05] I wouldn't be surprised if they hiked once, maybe twice more this year before it's all over. We've got three meetings left, so we'll see how it plays out.
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[20:33] I do think we're in a bubble. I think AI is in a bubble. I think we're not accounting for all the debt that's out there in AI. I mean, they've got over a over a billion dollars in off off balance sheets. So, there's a lot of stuff going on that I don't think is very good.
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[22:46] I think right now it's stuck in a range between 80 and 90,000. We could get one more burst out.
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[3:24] I think oil is going much lower and I wouldn't be surprised uh depending on how this war plays out that we end up uh uh down in the uh low in the low 60s before this is all said and done.
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[12:11] How about 6% or above? That's where I'm at. I think we're going to see 6%... But I think it's got a chance by the end of the year. It's a big move... I certainly will be buying those bond futures at 6% by the end of the year
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[23:31] I believe we're going to see and I think that I don't think we're going down 40 to 60% this year, but I think the selling starts and I think it starts relatively soon within the next four to five weeks. I start think we start to see these markets breaking down through the support that they have held for years and I think we start to see some pretty major damage starting taking place in the market.
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[32:10] As long as it holds that, I think there's a good chance we're going to see a 100,000 by the next time you and I talk. Uh, I think we're going to start to see a rally because now Bitcoin is defying not only the bond market, but what's going on in the equity markets
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[33:13] I think gold is pretty much near a bottom. again it may go I I could see it in my mind it won't go lower than 36 or 3700. Okay. I think that the market already anticipated the rate hike... I think now it has found a base and is starting to work its way higher. I would certainly much rather be a buyer in gold here than a seller.
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[6:49] I think there'll be another rate hike at least before this year
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[3:43] I would not be surprised within the next 6 weeks if we hit over 5% in the 10-year notes because of this intervention.
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The prediction claimed the 10-year Treasury yield would exceed 5% within 6 weeks. The period high was $5.342 on 2026-10-01 (trading day 27), which is within the 6-week window and clearly exceeds 5%, confirming the prediction.
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[6:19] The interest rates are going much higher and that means that the bond futures are going much lower and the way to play that market in my opinion is to sell the futures indicating that you believe that high interest rates are coming cuz I do.
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[11:19] I think we're just in the beginning of that 40 to 60% sell-off that I'm looking for. And I think that we'll see some acceleration once we get out of this next 2-week cycle and after Labor Day, I think we'll see some some acceleration to the downside.
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[13:32] I think silver's probably got the biggest. We didn't talk about that yet... I think you'll start to see the flow of money coming in there. We're seeing it kick off with gold, but I think the the lesser buyers and the the the poor man's gold, they'll start participating and start to step into silver here.
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[5:34] I think that they're going to continue to go higher. I wouldn't jump to chase here. If I wasn't in, I'd wait. There'll be a pullback.
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[14:01] it could rally another 10,000 before pulling back. It will have a pullback at some point, but we are now in the midst of the biggest rally in three years.
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[27:12] I would venture to talk that the next time you and I talk, it'll be it's It may not be there when we talk the next time, but at some point between now and then it'll be four or five thousand dollars cheaper than it is right now.
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[17:45] I would not be surprised at all if we get back into the '60s or mid-'50s before year's over.
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[22:05] I would say to you that it would not surprise me if if December oil, when it goes to comes to contract, is below is not below $70 a barrel.
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[8:27] what the Fed is doing here is is going to end up hurting the average consumer because it's going to make inflation spike higher
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[12:31] we've seen cattle has dropped about 20% from its highs. And I think there's still a lot of room to the downside.
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[11:03] 90% rate hike. Before the end of the year.
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[12:40] I think by the end of the year, you'll see oil back in the mid-'50s, and that might be enough for the Fed not to hike rates depending on how fast it happens.
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[14:06] If you look at the yen right now, that is setting up for a major sell-off again just and just because of the speed and the pace in which it's gone up.
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[22:08] I think that the 10-years are going to see close to 6% before the year's over.
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[25:40] I'm looking for gold to now break up to the upside and I'll start making a run uh to to new highs again... I'm looking for it to break out of 4,200 then to get to 4,500. I If I were to project and take a guess, which is all this is is a guess, I would say we're going to be somewhere north of 4,800 by the end of the year.
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[16:17] I think we found a pretty solid base at $55. You know, I've been talking about the last couple of times and I think we saw found a pretty solid base in gold at about 4,000. I think those are great spots to get and I think what you've seen is after that that gyration move, we came up and went into a downtrend for a little bit. I think you can see now over the last 3-4 weeks we've kind of based around 55 to 60. I think that's a great level to step in and start to be a buyer again
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[1:55] I think they found now a nice little base. I look for a solid rally. The truth of the matter is is my original call was about 6,000. It may be a little tougher to get there. I could see us potentially getting back to the highs and listen I can't say we can't get to 6,000 but now my next target that I'd be looking for would be about 4600 then about 5,000 and then the highs and we could certainly go there if we get the action behind it
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[1:18] I I think you saw gold fine 4,000 is a pretty good level to hold. Silver 55 and platinum about 1,600. Uh I expect to see a pretty solid rally.
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[1:18] I I think you saw gold fine 4,000 is a pretty good level to hold. Silver 55 and platinum about 1,600. Uh I expect to see a pretty solid rally.
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[2:48] I'm 100% saying they're going to hike. There's no there is no chance. If they let this go without a hike, then they're making even a bigger mistake.
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% at its September 16, 2026 meeting — a unanimous 12-0 vote — confirming the prediction of a rate hike around September 2026 was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[3:52] I expect to see the tenure notes get upwards north of 6% maybe this year.
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[4:56] It would be no surprise that we see a massive meltdown in a lot of these AI stocks. And again, we've got some big earnings coming out over the next couple of weeks that are going to be directly correlated to the AI space.
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The prediction claimed a 'massive meltdown' in AI stocks (proxied by NDX), but the period low was only 3.1% below the prediction date price ($27176.03 vs $28039.21), which does not constitute a 'massive meltdown,' and by the target date the index was up 9.2%.
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[11:08] you've already had a couple of oil companies report earnings, record earnings, and you got more coming out in the next couple weeks. I assure you they will be at record prices because at the end of the day they took every advantage of this stupid war that we're involved in
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[2:45] I still believe that by year's end, we'll probably be be in the low 60s or high 50s, if not lower.
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[18:53] there should be a rate hike in September in my opinion, okay, whether or not President Trump can can prevent them from doing that
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The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4% at its September 16, 2026 meeting, its first hike since 2023, confirming the prediction was correct. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[5:37] I think if you look at tech, I mean, tech has taken a little bit of beating. The semiconductors have taken a little bit of a beating, but I think they still have a lot more room to go on the downside.
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[6:29] you know Nvidia's been under some pressure. I think there's more room to go.
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[7:01] I think now you're probably getting to a spot where it's probably a pretty good spot to take a look at buying it. I don't I don't see a hell of a lot more room to the downside.
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[18:17] I sold the 10-year notes at at 114. They're down to 109 or 108 now. So, that's a pretty big move and I expect them to go even lower.
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[22:07] I've been buying gold when it dips down to 4,000. And I think that's a pretty good hold. I mean, listen, there's there's always a chance it can go lower, right? I don't think it'll go lower than 35 or 3,600, and I'm willing to take that risk.
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[22:21] I've been a buyer at silver around $55. I've been a buyer of platinum at the 1600 level. I think those are pretty solid base levels. I think what you saw was that parabolic move higher in all three. You saw the dramatic collapse... I think now they've settled and I think now they're ready to start moving their way up again.
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[22:23] I've been a buyer of platinum at the 1600 level. I think those are pretty solid base levels. I think what you saw was that parabolic move higher in all three. You saw the dramatic collapse... I think now they've settled and I think now they're ready to start moving their way up again.
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[21:39] the grain markets were a good buy. Well, the grains have now rallied 15%. From their lows, that's going to make prices even higher. So, that's going to even speed up inflation.
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[24:16] I know we're up about 11% for the year in the S&P. It would not surprise me at all if we ended up unchanged for the year or down on the year before it's all said and done.
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[28:07] you can bet your you can bet you're a sweet bippy, as they say, you'll see a 20, 30, 40% haircut come in this market at some point. When is that point? I don't know. I'm still looking for an overall 40 to 60% haircut. I'm not changing my views.
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[25:14] I think the dollar is going to continue to go higher as long as there's uncertainty around the world, around the globe. I could see it going as high as 102, 103, maybe higher, depending on how these markets react.
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[25:53] I think there's a great shot that we see 4500 on this next up leg, if not higher. Okay? But I will start to look at 4500 as a place to potentially lighten up my position
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[26:55] Uh, I think it's got a great chance to go down to 7200. Uh, I think the highs are in. I think the next resistance would be about it would be at 7520 would be where I would be reselling and adding on to my position.
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[18:00] I think we get at least one, maybe two before the year's over. Uh, I think that they're warranted. I think that they're due.
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[5:29] interest rates really if you would just let them trade freely David and let the free market determine what they are the 10ear notes are now just under 5% they were almost at 5% I think they're going to end up near near 6% by the end of the year
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[30:19] I would also look at, you know, the dollar, the Dixie doesn't trade enough for me to want to get involved with it. But if I were going to trade the Dixie, I would sell it here.
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[21:25] we've got midterms coming up, which is termally ter normally between now and midterms, the markets are lower anyways. You throw a rate a rate hike in there, you could see some pretty serious selling.
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[7:57] certainly the S&P at some point will trade 8,000. I don't think it'll be this year, but I could it certainly could happen.
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[9:43] I think gold will now go beyond its ra higher again. And it would not surprise me at all if gold got to back to 5,500, even an outside shot at 6,000 before the year's over.
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[9:57] I'm most bullish on the metals, believe it or not, gold and silver. Uh I think that they they have made their bottoms. I think listen, you if you look at silver, silver, silver took a 50% haircut from its highs. Uh I'm still very bullish on platinum.
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[15:49] I do not think that price I think the prices at the pump, we've seen the highs for the year and they will only come down lower. That's what I would say.
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[27:06] I'm saying that it wouldn't surprise if it traded 155 to 165 before this week is over.
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During the week of June 15–20, SpaceX (SPCX) surged dramatically — closing at ~$192.50 on Monday June 15 and hitting an all-time high of $211.39 on June 16, never falling to the predicted $155–$165 range that week. The stock had already closed at ~$161 on its IPO debut (June 12) and only climbed further that week. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/15/spacex-stock-record-ipo-debut.html)
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[31:12] I think the 10year notes are going to 6% before the year. Okay. So, again, I think interest rates are going a lot higher.
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[32:18] Well, I think when we when we get to 6%, I think you see the S&P down to probably about 5,500. I I think we see I think we get the sell off that I've been looking for for a while. And I think that it's I think it's coming sooner than we think.
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[15:23] I'm expecting 40 to 60%. You said it in the headline. And I'm not expecting it in one day nor tomorrow. But at the end of the day, if you're a true investor and investing money that you can afford, there's really nothing you should do other than learn how to hedge your portfolio or let it sit
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[22:50] I think it's probably got a little bit more room to go to the downside. I would think probably in the mid-50s.
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The prediction claimed silver would decline to the mid-$50s (approximately $55) from $65.09. The period low was $55.01 on 2026-07-17, which meets the mid-$50s target (mid-$50s would be roughly $54-$56), so the price did reach the predicted level during the window.
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[4:14] rates are going to start to rise, which is what we talked about a long time ago is that rates are going up. They're not going down.
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[7:54] I think we've seen the pullback in gold. I think we're seeing gold in consolidation. And I think the gold has already anticipated the higher rates. It's already anticipated what was going on. And I think now you're starting to see some new money buyers come in and holding it in consolidation, waiting for the next big move. And I happen to believe the next big move in gold will be higher. I could see new highs this year. In fact, you know, I believe that we're going to get to 6,000 this year in gold.
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[8:43] Silver tried to break out last week, failed a little bit, but I I could see new highs in silver this year as well. I'm expecting to see silver get back over 120
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[10:14] history tells us that it's a lot closer because typically during this midterm election cycle between May and October we have averaged about an 18% selloff in that period of time.
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[2:59] I would wait for a pullback to buy... I do think that to get in initially, you're going to overpay. And I think you're better off waiting for a pullback and a and let it trade for a while to get the real view of where this is going to go. I think that when you look at the overall picture, you'll overpay if you buy it at the beginning
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[15:36] Intel should probably fall. I would say 30 or 40% at some point here. But again, 10 years from now, it'll probably be higher than it is right now.
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[13:22] I'm 100% a seller and I've already got a small short position that I put on today at Micron and I will add to it again. Th this the the rate of change, the rate that it is moving up cannot be sustained.
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[23:12] I'd buy Bitcoin uh or Bitcoin related stocks here. I know it's just recently come from a low and popped back up... to me that looks fairly bullish as it breaks out of consolidation.
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[10:40] Uh the Fed's not going to cut until inflation falls... he wants to hike rates a little bit further because inflation is dramatically out of control, especially with the high price of oil.
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[2:43] all things being equal i would think oil will be back in the 60s before the third quarter.
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[5:02] I'm still looking longer term for that 40 to 60% haircut in the markets. I do think that we're going to go into a bare market. I do think that we are going significantly lower.
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[18:28] I think the dollar is going to be stuck between 96 cents and a dollar2 right now trading at 98 cents.
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[23:09] I'm expecting a 25 to 30% rally across the board.
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[3:01] a year from now, oil is trading at $69.
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[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.
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The period low was $6316.91 on trading day 11, representing a decline of only 4.76% from the prediction date price of $6632.19, which does not meet the minimum 8% decline threshold claimed.
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[24:07] I thought the grain I think the grains are bottom. So, I'm certainly bullish the grain market.
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[24:13] I'm certainly bullish cotton.
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[1:00] I would expect and I would not be surprised to see gold touch 6,000 at some point during the year of uh of 2026.
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[1:06] I wouldn't be surprised to see silver hit over 80.
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[12:57] I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities. And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower.
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