Oil Predictions

[4:43] I think there's a pretty good chance we're heading um back down and could actually be in the 60s. um before the end of this year and lower from there.

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[41:13] As much as I think oil can go down into the 30s during the global bust. So, you know, get down into the 60s here and then when bust hits, maybe be down into the 30s. From there, I think oil can go, which would be, you know, 2028 and beyond. I think oil can go to $500 a barrel. So, you'll go from, you know, $30 or $40 a barrel to $500 a barrel probably between 2028 and 2034.

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[4:16] I'm looking for oil to be below 70 before the year is out.

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[4:33] I think this week, I think we'll probably see 85 before the week is over.

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[26:23] I'm anticipating further downside by the midterms. We should get down to this $78 per barrel level.

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[27:33] I think you'll see higher oil prices and I do think that you'll see these refined product margins fall a lot just because they are at unsustainably high levels.

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[27:33] I think you'll see higher oil prices and I do think that you'll see these refined product margins fall a lot just because they are at unsustainably high levels.

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[38:08] Oil is actually really un at $100 a barrel, oil, you could argue, is still undervalued. The real price of oil, inflation adjusted price of oil, right? Um, you know, is still about average over the past 40 years or something. We're still at average. So, we really haven't even seen an oil price spike in terms of real the real oil price hitting a level that's problematic. And you don't get there until you get well over $120, $130, $40, $50 a barrel. I still think that risk is on the table.

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[34:44] We very possibly will never again see $55 to $60 oil, but the companies we own organize themselves so they could still be very profitable at $60 a barrel. But just think of how much free cash flow they're going to have the next 10 years at oil anywhere from say 70 to $120.

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[30:23] Uh, that is delusional... we're in a bull market. We've got people by the throat.

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[7:57] So what I would tell your audience right now is that oil is going to climb. Now, how high will it go? That depends on how destructive the future is.

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[13:45] today it says Brent oil the highest it can go at least in the next three weeks is 112.

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[5:15] I think oil prices are going to continue to go up until the stock market breaks.

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[2:29] I think uh we're going to be in this for for a while and I think that'll continue to create u problems in the oil market. So I'm looking at higher for longer oil prices as a result of that

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[26:11] you're going to have elevated oil and gas prices for some time until the nuclear nuclear plants uh are are able to kick in and that takes years.

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[3:24] I think oil is going much lower and I wouldn't be surprised uh depending on how this war plays out that we end up uh uh down in the uh low in the low 60s before this is all said and done.

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[5:21] I think it's going to be very significant. Um and of course uh what you have going on here is that uh the prominent players particularly the United States um our population doesn't have really the information is being blocked... higher fuel prices, higher food prices um and uh higher costs for businesses really globally.

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[35:11] gold as you may recall topped in January of 2026. So if you count forward 20 months uh from that you get about August of 2028. Um should be the the peak for interest rates and uh peak for oil prices.

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[0:16:44] while we have been dubious of the sort of hyperbull analysis of oil should go to 150 and that the markets are being manipulated because it hasn't yet. One of the reasons why it hadn't yet is because of the free flow of crude oil out of the Red Sea. You turn that spigot off and then even we are in the camp of okay like now we're in a we're in a meaningful crisis like all bets are off

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[16:06] This year, I think what you do is you long oil uh from here through to December the 5th, and then winter doesn't show up. Hopefully, it'll be warm for the sake of the global economy. And um you know, you'd actually be selling oil at that point.

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[27:09] I'm in the case that oil is probably closer to a top here than not... oil's coming down. Could it go a little bit higher? Of course, it could. But I am short oil here and I think it's coming down here in the near term.

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[29:44] I think at this point I think oil is probably closer to a major high and going to $50. Like I would say this oil to 50 before 150.

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[6:14] the position I've got on right now is actually believe or not a call spread. It's a call spread that expires the day after the midterm election, you know, and the way it's structured is that the lower strike is an 80 95 and the upper strike is 105. This is on the December WTI future.

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[11:36] I think China easily has 6 months more of oil. I I'm not concerned in the short term that there's going to be a spike in oil from China importing.

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[16:43] I think it will come down sharply. To me, it's not an if. Everybody gets that. It's a question because if it stays up and continues to go up, it breaks stuff.

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[18:45] I don't really know how high crude is going to go. I think 100 in the US is a decent peak.

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[18:19] I fully expect they're going to double their production in a year they're already up 30% from a year ago

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[25:07] $30 a barrel nominal is just as likely as 150 from here.

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[4:08] you know, oil supplies to kind of just you know creep creep higher over the coming decades and oil prices to remain contained you know maybe even trend a little bit lower over coming decades... >> Oh, it's it's firmly our opinion and if anything, these events only accelerate that

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[35:43] if you ask me, could we get to 2 million barrels in two years, you know, from 1.1 today? So an extra 900,000 I would say that's probably a reasonable overunder where you'd split the market um just spitballing

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[23:03] all this extra supply is coming online, lo and behold, peace in Ukraine will will evolve. Peace in the Middle East will evolve... it's going to come out terrible for everybody because there's going to be way too much supply. All shortages are followed by guts.

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[5:48] if the escalation ladder, you know, escapes the control of the main actors and people start firing missiles into critical assets that get knocked offline for years, um, then you could see a real super spike in oil.

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[20:57] I suggest by 2029, 2030, 2031 that we'll have a structural shortage of oil, a non uh artificial shortage of oil. and we won't be able to end that shortage with an armistice.

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[3:30] I think oil is is set to go higher. Um, a lot of the infrastructure that has been damaged is going to take multiple years to repair and the world is going to continue to to to uh, you know, have greater demand on on less supply and that's going to make the price go up.

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[17:54] Oh, up and uh because the situation you just it whether if it's 17, nine or six, you are drawing inventory somewhere between four and six million barrels per day.

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[17:01] I think I think unfortunately we're set higher. And then one other thought in the 1970s one of the big oil price moves people think that prices moved around OPEC and they think they moved around let's say the Yumipur war in 1973 you actually saw a huge oil price move higher a month after the Yumipur war ended and I think it was actually even after OPEC embargos were lifted you saw an enormous move higher in oil prices so I would I would watch out for that

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[25:10] that's where you could see let's say 110 WTI or 120 even versus today and not actually necessarily see any higher price at the pump for gasoline or even for diesel for trucks.

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[26:48] probably takes 5 to 10 years to maybe get another million barrels a day in 5 to 10 years, which we'll need anyway because of shale depletion and various other issues. So, I think this is just it's a it's a useful sort of nonsensical talking point for them to try to force down the price of oil in the middle of the war

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[21:51] The chart of of oil is still pointing to about $100 per barrel. So, just looking at Fibonacci and in the momentum, we had a rally up. It's pulled back and now it's going to try to work its way up, I think, to this $100 mark

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[50:22] oil I I think is also uh I don't think the bull market is over in oil mainly because oil was like at 148 in 2007 and Since then the money supply worldwide is tripled and so I don't think 150 oil is um very high. Uh so I think oil could be something um also to keep an eye on.

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[31:54] I'm expecting shorter term uh more upside pressure and then longer term sideways to lower pressure. I think that you know prices around $86 a barrel uh are slightly elevated over what I might consider a market clearing price.

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[4:13] crude oil to me looks like we're going to continue this little bounce that we started in the month of July up higher into probably mid-September early October which is going to be a source of probable discomfort for the markets.

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[17:45] I would not be surprised at all if we get back into the '60s or mid-'50s before year's over.

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[22:05] I would say to you that it would not surprise me if if December oil, when it goes to comes to contract, is below is not below $70 a barrel.

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[37:44] I don't think it's a short-term thing. I think it's something you should think in terms of a couple years at least. Uh it's a repricing of an asset category.

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my comparative inventory model suggesting severe price pressures could materialize by November

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[33:04] I don't see anything like that coming in the next uh you know, the next few days or weeks or even months. That's a that's a real problem.

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[3:23] what we mean by down five is that uh we think that the United States over the next 10 years is going to lose about 5 million barrels a day of production. It's going to go from roughly about 13 million barrels a day to about 8 million barrels a day.

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[5:54] we think now Canada is going to go up about 5 million barrels a day and that's a result of um both uh Prime Minister Mark Carney and Premier Daniel Smith agreeing to become the candidate be an energy superpower. and uh uh Premier Smith uh has defined you know what is an energy superpower uh is uh the goal of doubling uh oil and gas production over about 10 years and for your uh listeners to appreciate uh Canada today produces about 5 million barrels a day of of liquids and so it would go from 5 to 10

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[29:27] the data is telling us that oil is likely to stay higher for longer, even if percent is right. And I doubt that he is. And that has economic and investment implications that we should take seriously.

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[28:10] let's say for the rest of this year, oil remains in the range that it is now, that's a huge problem. Oil doesn't even have to go higher. It just stays where it is now and the knock-on effects economically are huge.

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[21:32] I suspect that over the long time they're going to have a long-term project of reducing their dependency on the Persian Gulf.

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[3:00] the longer term into next year, I would be pleasantly surprised if Hormuz flows return to 50% of pre-war by the middle of 2027. Uh, I I just don't I I I don't see it happening.

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[2:46] my most likely case is that basically nothing changes between now and the end of the year. I mean, you know, we might have weeks where it looks a little better and weeks where it looks a little worse.

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[33:03] probably 80 or 90% will come back the way it was given a couple of days or a couple of weeks. Some of it may not or never will.

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[8:37] I could see five and a half really sort of pushing them over the sort of over the limit.

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[27:02] the chart and the Fibonacci extensions are pointing to about $100 per barrel for oil. Uh do I think this war is over? No. I think uh it's going to continue to go for a long time. And I think eventually we're just going to see oil continue to go back up and and carry these higher levels.

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[39:23] I still do have money in oil. And I think that that will go through the roof. I think it'll hit it'll skyrocket in the in the months ahead for the reasons I've outlined. I simply see no evidence that this war is over.

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[17:13] I think it's more likely to have upside surprises than not. So, I would be bullish on oil, on energy stocks. Um, aside from the fundamental drivers and aside from the supply side, I just think that it's you want to you want to put money to work where um you have positive tail risk. Positive tail risk meaning oil could surprise, right? Higher.

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[35:44] I think oil prices is the one that is going to move steadily higher um you know for for a period of time. It's just it's astounding to me that um you know people are still so bearish on the oil price and the energy sector

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[37:46] there are so many fundamental factors right now that are trying to push oil prices back to their closer to an intrinsic value level which would be I think well over $100 a barrel

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[24:13] There's tech stocks that are down 50%. You know, I don't think we're going to see $40 oil.

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[12:40] I think by the end of the year, you'll see oil back in the mid-'50s, and that might be enough for the Fed not to hike rates depending on how fast it happens.

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[17:16] over the long longer term, we see higher oil prices, which will eventually lead to uh some of these producers re-rating.

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[33:28] I'm using $80 for the whole year I think we're going to be 80 on average in Q4 even if there is peace talks uh and get you know ongoing which could take months to res you know to get all the issues resolved.

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[34:08] we're using in our forecast for 2027 $90 a barrel uh because I think that you know the first thing that's going to happen is demand will pick up you know if there's a deal.

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[22:54] crude oil going back to its normal mean 70 or lower. Trump fix figures it out and we have a normal bit normal volatility pickup and a normal correction in the stock market that always happens, not always, but almost is very common in midterm election years. That's a post-inflation deflation trade.

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[13:04] I fully expect crude oil to gravitate towards 70. 70 has been the absolute high value price for 20 years. So it's basically the the apex of the bell curve and then do a normal rotation back down towards 40.

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[37:44] all of those headwinds have turned into tailwinds. The price of fuel is going to rocket higher and and literally businesses are going to start going out of business very quickly.

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[7:34] I would say that the direction of oil price is higher, even though there are fluctuations in the short term. So, the impact on inflation is going to be upward because there is no short-term correction coming down of the oil price anytime soon.

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[12:20] I think the bull story with with oil is that we're probably going to be in this range where oil at the low end is in the say 70 range. You know, maybe it's going to be a while before we get there. I think uh given the shortage that's uh that's amassed and this latest reality check, but you know, at the upper end, we probably are going to see, you know, 100 tough to penetrate other than maybe on a short-term basis.

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[18:55] I still a lot of contracts left because I I do believe we could get, you know, a a blowoff top in oil that is not unlike what we saw with gold and silver at the beginning of the year.

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[32:51] Longer term, I'm I'm I'm very very bullish. Objectively, things are, you know, things have recovered significantly from the lows just a couple weeks ago. They're still relatively on sale, but I want to buy low and sell high.

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[28:14] This is the least long we've seen people crude in since way before the war, right? And it doesn't appear to me to this point the data hasn't shown that anyone is chasing this higher because they don't want to get burned again, right? Which means that it probably has legs. And you say that it hasn't gone straight to 100, but I mean it's it's gone from 68 or so back to 87 88, right? So, it's working its way. It's not going to go there in a day, but it's working right to me. This one is much more sustainable than the last one.

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[2:45] I still believe that by year's end, we'll probably be be in the low 60s or high 50s, if not lower.

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[19:01] if I said to you, hey Julie, you know what? Oil prices are going back up, which I do believe, made that call a few weeks ago.

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[10:37] I've always anticipated that later this summer, and we're getting now towards August, that that we could very easily see a pretty good spike in the price.

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[7:47] I think I mentioned on the show before, the last time we talked, that I thought we'd run into shortages by the end of the summer and early fall as the inventories did just completely dried up. And it looks like that's happening.

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[26:53] Who knows what the oil price is going to do. I think it's flat to up. But you can look at what's priced in the stocks.

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[17:07] I think we're going to end up being proven right because by election day in November, we may actually have rationing in some parts of the country when it comes to oil and other key products that you need for a a modern economy.

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[17:45] Before I I think by the time we get to Labor Day, you're going to see very significant shortages, not of oil. There's a glut of oil out there, Julia. What's really important is refined product

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[21:24] I do not anticipate oil going back above 100 this year. I would be very very surprised and you can hold me to that in our next interview um that if oil goes above I'd be wrong but I think it stops at 87ish or so and I think by by the midterms we're back to the 60s.

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[9:34] supply is tightening aggressively again... we have seen a rollover in the transits through Hormuz... Now they are back below the pace of new loadings in the Gulf and will eventually create that binding constraint.

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[26:55] we're still drawing down you know five plus million barrels a week. Um that is going to continue. And for for the record, the latest forecast from the uh the EIA, the energy information administration... it has a forecast for the SPR fill and that falls to around 282 million barrels a day this year

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[10:33] the volume of exports that are signaling China as their end destination have begun to rebound. So that's your kind of leading indicator of what will be imported in China in the span of the next couple weeks or months.

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[16:39] I would be more than surprised again over the next year and a half or so if you don't see oil, you know, back up over a hundred bucks again. Um, I just I think we're set up for that. And I think there's been more damage to production than people probably realize there is.

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[25:51] I I believe oil is going to stay high for a while. I mean, is the war over? Yeah, the war was over. No, the war's not over, right? and it's just escalating and there's been so much demand um supply destruction and with the straight of Hormuz being shut again or I don't know if it's shut or open or what's happening there but there's definitely I I I think energy won't go back down to like $40 or $50 a barrel.

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[12:28] I think at the end of the day, oil prices won't be sitting in the 70s. It'll be sitting more in the 80s and '90s uh as people realize how difficult it is to to manage the situation with Iran.

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[28:13] The shortage that we have coming up is structural. The shortage that we have coming up will be a consequence of by then $2.5 trillion dollars of underinvestment. And you can't solve that with an armistice. You have to solve it with uh a $2.5 trillion capital input. And you can't input that in a month or two months or three months... The price response that you saw in calendar 2026 from $55 to 115 was artificial and temporary. The structural imbalance that you're going to see coming forward is structural.

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[7:25] So right now we're in the view that we're going to be $80 average in Q4.

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[8:04] I think in 2027 we're using an average price of $90 uh per barrel for the year. It'll be you know probably have a 20 bucks swing. So 110 at the high and 70 at the low.

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[21:58] could you argue that there's going to be 10 million barrels that don't come out from the straight? I think by the end of the year that's maybe going to be three or four million and I think the world can adjust to a 3 or 4 million um you know less production.

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[17:04] we targeted oil to go back to the 70 or 80s level a couple months ago, and that's kind of what we're seeing. Can it get to 81 82 if there's continued aggression? Sure. But we're basically in that in that sort of ban.

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[18:17] That's why we're not going to see oil prices come back down to the 60s or even below that that we saw pre the period of this war. That's why I think we stay in that 7080s range.

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[13:06] I do have a very bullish thesis on oil sort of medium to long term, but I think in the near term, the odds favor a shopping opportunity.

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[2:52] oil prices went up to 138, you know, in the beginning of the war period, now they're they're down in the mid70s and we had said they'd be in 70 80 bically for the rest of the year and and we're basically in the 70s.

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[23:27] countries that found themselves suddenly squeezed for oil, not that the price went up, but that they couldn't get it. Um, mostly in Asia, those countries are going to be more willing. They're going to they're going to see building an oil reserve as a as a priority and an urgency... I think all of those countries are going to build up reserves of oil and that of course means more more demand and higher prices.

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[18:14] I would say I'm more bullish on an oil rebound. It may go lower before it goes up, but if we're talking second half of 2026, I think we see oil uh come higher, significantly higher from where we are now, and certainly from where I think we might go lower.

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[30:02] I think oil will start heading higher in about a week's time and I'll explain to you what I mean by that because in a week's time we will be after both July 4th as well as the funeral

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[29:54] my sense is that we are just going to now from $70 a barrel, maybe we go to 67 or whatever, 65, but I think that from there, we're going to just edge higher. Um, and that's going to continue to be sort of the uh the trend for the next several years.

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[28:20] this is why we are short oil because that has to come down if they to have any chance of not uh materializing some of those hikes that half the committee actually are forecasting. Um, and that's why I think we got this poor moves, you know, quick quick sort sorts and we're shorting the oil price. We've uh been short since the '9s and we've got into I think uh the low7s uh and we might have dipped into the 60s now.

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[6:39] I think oil will probably go back to the levels it was before. You know, people say, "Oh, oh, blah, blah." But it will. And so, I think then then you may want to buy more of it there, right?

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[5:52] I my my base line case is probably around $85$90 a barrel. That wouldn't surprise me whatsoever.

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[11:34] my guess is that uh uh we probably won't see $100 barrel on oil again soon. Uh but it may not go back to the 5060 where it was prior to the war.

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[6:05] I'd be long oil at this point. Uh but as volatile as it is, if you want to be long oil, the way to do it is through, I think, oil stocks or by uh doing spreads with um commodity options. And I'm putting that theory into practice myself. I'm long a lot of oil stocks, and uh I actually have bull spreads on for oil at this point. I think they're going to work out well.

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[28:44] Oil. Bullish two years.

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[30:31] Oil is weak near term, sure. I'll come quietly. That was not a great surprise, but it's the medium term that matters. And if you put this into context... I would not discount higher oil prices in the medium term.

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[18:57] it's on the way, I would say. So, if you if you look at that chart and you just sort of get the halfway point of the war, we're kind of at where we were at the beginning of the war.

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[18:06] I'd expect um over the coming weeks quite a significant rebound was my kind of base case

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[48:51] we're running a deficit in oil probably through the end of the year and and and you you have to run a surplus of course using the surplus to add to the inventory.

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[28:50] Oh, oil right here is a screaming buy. I think the your downside is maybe 70, your upside's 150. Um... that gets you like a big bounce in oil in the third, second, third quarter of this year.

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[26:28] you're going to go back up over $100 for oil. I don't know if it'll go to 140, 150, or even higher. It all depends on how violent this next episode turns out to be.

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[20:56] We're drawing that down, and we're going to get to the point where we cannot draw it down any further by the fall. Now, that could come earlier. It could come at the beginning of August or end of August.

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[0:00] Do I want to be long oil, and do I want to be long the companies and you know, all of the associated assets to them? The answer is absolutely yes. And I'll always like to say, you know, get long, buckle your seatbelt, and hang on for the ride. Um, and that's it usually the case in commodities. There is a long-term story here that's very much intact. It's been pulled forward and stronger. Today's pullback gives you a buying opportunity that's probably I you know, it's a very unique opportunity right now today. You have a stronger fundamental picture on a already very bullish long-term outlook. So, I I'm I'm a buyer here.

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[2:53] you know, it's not going to make it past July or August. So, that's part of the reason they're rushing to try to get a deal done so quickly.

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[11:59] the risk is going to take longer than what people suspected and that's what happened with with COVID. Everybody was super bearish on oil thinking it's going to stay down these low levels forever. But what happens it just took a lot longer

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[3:58] we're not going to get the 30 or $40 oil which if you remember before the Iranian war even was a possibility in most people's mind there were people looking for oil to fall that low again one of the things I think this created is and people realized how close we Kate to a worldwide energy crisis we're not going to get cheap oil as might have been in the past.

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[26:08] you are going to get a flood of ships getting out temporarily with a long queue, you know, like an LA freeway. You are going to get those ships coming out and there will be a further boost to global energy and key commodity supplies... there will be further downward pressure on energy prices in the near term therefore on bond yields etc etc.

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[10:57] I would look for it if it's not there already uh to go back to around 80 and 80 being a benchmark.

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[15:49] I do not think that price I think the prices at the pump, we've seen the highs for the year and they will only come down lower. That's what I would say.

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[11:31] but now oil prices look set to level off uh potentially go down. They won't go down to pre-war levels, I don't think. Um, but the inflation from energy has been broken.

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[9:57] I think the oil price on a longerterm fundamental basis is going to go meaningfully higher over the next few years.

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[19:53] I fully expect that December crude oil contract which is the top and open interest will be front month um around midterms is around $80 a barrel right now to be closer to 50.

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[36:07] the fundamentals of the the energy um sector of the, you know, crude oil suggest crude oil should probably be trading $150 a barrel right now... it's pretty obvious that we we're going to see much you know in in the months ahead uh a further breakout in the oil price

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[6:04] I think latest latest by late summer, early autumn, we will get uh a severe oil price shock where the shortages are really so uh uh uh intense that that uh people who need the physical oil are willing to pay much higher prices.

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[11:04] I think over the next few days weeks latest let's say two 3 months maybe I think we're going to see another oil spike spike. Yes.

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[33:46] I think oil's going back down to $60.

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[21:08] the people that think if we settle up with Iran that the price of oil is going to go back to 60 bucks a barrel, they are they are either drinking the wrong thing or smoking the wrong thing.

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[25:14] I actually think it's probably preferable for the the oil companies for it to settle in at 80 to 100 bucks a barrel for an extended period of time

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[26:38] the demand for oil and gas is is is going to probably rise a little bit each year with the population of the world going up

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[36:07] over the short to medium term, I think there's probably upside to oil prices and simply by virtue of the fact that if you got a resolution and you opened up the straight of Hormuz tomorrow. Well, the Kuwaitis and the Iraqis have said that it's going to take them a little bit longer to ramp up production. The Saudis won't even be able to do it right away. And so you're not going to see this 10 to 15 million barrels per day of supply that's been shut in. You're not going to see it snap back overnight... in the meantime, while all that is happening, you'll continue to run down inventories a little bit... certainly we see a little bit more upside rather than downside.

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[4:41] I've been in the camp of no, that's not going to happen around the 70 to $80 mark by the end of the year. And I say that because we're already looking at oil prices um in the low 90s now.

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[21:35] oil WTI is not going back to 65 bucks a barrel anytime soon... I think we're going to land somewhere between 80 and 85 bucks a barrel for WTI

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[12:58] I think oil's going a lot higher and so are bond yields. Even if the war ends, uh, which, you know, who knows if that's actually going to happen anytime soon, but even if it does, uh, I think that these trends are going to remain in place.

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[8:35] Are we going to hit $150 oil? No, I don't think so. And here's why. Because both US and Iran want out of this for different reasons.

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[23:03] we're just kind of bullish on commodities, bullish on oil prices. Yes, they could pull back um uh short-term if there's a u a sessation of activities, but we're still uh uh bullish on oil prices.

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[30:30] I do think oil's probably going a lot higher. I I suspect we're going to go above $14 what $7 was the all-time high. I suspect we're going to go above that during this um this bull market for commodities.

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[27:37] my base case is that hormones never returns to normal flows. And there are many reasons for that. The first is political. If if I am Iran and I now control the straight of Hormuz, which gives me it makes me the most powerful country in the world essentially... Why would I ever give that up?

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[5:39] all that means is that there's a lag and and it it's coming to us as well... we're getting very close to running out of our savings account. And once that happens, then we got no money.

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[33:37] Would I be long oil at these levels? Not very not not a lot. I would be very very worried about such level of deep backwardation in the forward curve. But that doesn't mean that oil prices are going to go to $50 a barrel. they would only go to 50 if obviously there is a financial crisis as in 2008 and I don't see that happening

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[8:05] We don't have but a couple of more weeks, maybe a month that we could keep doing that before the the cumulative impact of the straight being closed is going to lead to real supply constraints in the oil market.

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[28:41] I think we will see oil back down into the 70s based on oil flowing through the straight.

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[17:40] once they realize that in the next three or six months, I think you get another leg up on oil because they'll finally figure out that hey, and maybe the straits never go back like they were.

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[25:20] we turned bullish on oil at $65 in January based on momentum... oil is in a bull trend and it occurred before that war started. So when oil drops back down, let's say into the 80s and everybody applauds and says, 'Oh boy, happy time again.'

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[25:55] I think I think oil at $150 is much more likely than $60. I think we might not see oil at $60 again until the next very bad recession. So I think I think 150 is in the cards. Frankly, in between now and year end, we could see oil at, like we said, 200, 250.

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[10:29] To be clear, the 250 call is not directly from the Strait of Hormuz. Like that may be the trigger. It's more of a cyclical call that cyclicals tend to go to an all-time high inflation-adjusted price at the top of each major cycle and we've been near the bottom of the oil cycle. Maybe the bottom for was 2020 where prices went negative and so after setting up with a unrealistically negative price, I think we're set up for a potentially unrealistically high oil price, 250 or higher.

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[19:42] gasoline prices may actually come down a little bit here even as oil rises because we're in turnaround season right now for refiners... you're going to see the gasoline market loosen, and you should see prices fall materially, at least relative to the price of oil, to the extent that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

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[24:17] the rig count that we're showing is inflecting. And so, it's rising and it's about to rise quite rapidly, uh, perhaps more rapidly than it fell in early and mid 2025.

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[20:48] Our our view personally is I think we're going to have, you know, $100 oil on average for the rest of this year.

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[27:49] I believe over the next 10 to 15 years if the oil price goes up with you know inflation and and goes up nominally 3 to 5% a year the oil price can be in the low triple digits

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[27:02] Look, I think the direction of travel for oil is lower... do I want to be long the price of oil in 12 months or short it from today? Of course, I'd want to be shorted.

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[36:30] I don't think that OPEC breaking up is the death of the petro dollar. I think it's the death of OPEC. Something we have been calling for and others have been calling for for a long time.

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[12:37] even if there's no resumed finding, you're going to see basically this war taking a big knock on the global economy to the extent that oil prices will probably be sharply higher. So, this is the this is why actually, ironically, you know what?

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Kempfer gives his contrarian 6-month forecast for the Strait of Hormuz and explains why investors should actually be preparing for a dramatic drop in oil prices.

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[4:28] I think, uh, you know, oil prices were looking at higher for longer. If we use the sports phrase, if we look at the overunder, I'll take the over.

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[14:05] It's going to go from 100 to 150, 180, 200 in a very short period of time. When is that? I don't know. Uh uh 2 months, 3 months, 1 month.

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[3:07] yes the front end of oil is coming down. I think we're below 90 or right around 90 um on Thursday on WTI. But I think some of the other longer term contracts are still fairly elevated. So I think we're going to be kind of dealing with this higher for longer. It's going to take a lot of time for the Middle East to rebuild their energy production.

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[14:00] UAE has announced its departure from OPEC. So oil is just going to come onto the market and flood the market um really quickly. So the prices then in six months time should be a reflection and we should be seeing deflation in the gas prices again.

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[17:19] the thought that the oil price is going to stay at record lows relative to M2, relative to gold, relative to anything else and basically stay undervalued persist dramatically undervalued persistently and definitely into the future is probably wishful thinking at best.

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[26:59] And we're looking at $200 a barrel before we're through. I think I think we'll be at 150 before the summer's end and probably by the end of the year close to 200, maybe more.

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[24:35] I think oil is going to stay elevated for a while. I think it's going to stay, you know, probably above 88 and and you know, 120.

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[15:16] I understand that oil prices, in fact, I don't think the market is properly pricing in how persistently high interest rates are going to oil prices are going to stay, meaning put upward pressure on goods inflation. I don't think the market is fully priced in the destruction to the infrastructure in the Middle East and how long it's going to take to get energy prices back down.

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[19:09] So So what it means is lower oil prices at at some point. Not not right now, by the way. Not right now. Right. Right now, you want to be long because there'll be more spikes as the straight remains shut.

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[24:02] you want to be long in the short and intermediate run because we we have had the the straight shut off but what's going on is pretty simple economics we've we've had a loss of about 14.5 million barrels a day that that don't that are not coming through, but the demand destruction due to the fact that the price has gone up is has not been that great. And the and the reason that the demand destruction isn't that great is that the price elasticity, the sensitivity of the demand, the quantity demanded of oil to prices is is is pretty sticky. It isn't very sensitive. Price goes up and demand goes down a little bit because of the price movement. You destroy a little demand but not very much. And as a result the you can see this by the way because the inventory drawd down is is about 11 to 12 million barrels a day. So in for in fact the demand destruction because of the price increase has only been about 2 and a half to three and a half million barrels a day. And and and to reach equilibrium they have to be about 14 12. It's it's only about two and a half to three and a half. So what's going to happen? We we're drawing down in price goes up that destroys a little demand and we live off declining inventories. We suck down inventory. Suck down in what happens when the inventories go up. The price jumps up. So we're going to see some price spikes coming. That's why you want to be long oil because because of the inventory draw down.

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[10:40] I have a picture of my I think then 5-year-old daughter in front of minus $38 oil and I said show this to your grandkids when you're paying $1,000 a barrel for it.

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[14:54] there'll be probably $5 or $10 of premium embedded in price. So as I said 27 oil today is $73. That's a great price. I don't really think it goes much lower

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[23:47] they're they're looking at $130 uh per barrel probably by May and you know, the end of May. Um, and you know, probably by the um by the second half of this year, early into the second half of this year, um you're probably looking at 150 bucks a barrel.

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[37:16] base case right now um I had you know I haven't updated my uh probability I I'd have to redo my uh priors. I've been waiting for for new data on on oil supply. Uh but um right now we're at like a hundred bucks a barrel uh for the rest of the year on average uh for frontline uh Brent.

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[0:20] we do see this um standoff between Iran and the US persist into the second half of the year. um and prices really start moving higher to destroy demand.

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[10:00] it seems to me that oil is underpriced uh right now at $90 a barrel. If you look at the futures markets, both Brent and uh uh WTI, uh they're in backwardation. In other words, you look at oil several months ahead, it's a lot cheaper than it is on the on on the front month, which seems to be saying that the market thinks that uh oil itself is going to get cheaper. That 6 months from now it's going to be $80 or $70 a barrel, something like that. I don't think so. I think that it's actually going to go much higher

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[25:44] They don't believe high oil prices are sustainable long term because the market will correct as it always does. these geopolitical events always correct themselves

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[27:18] we think the futures prices are going to have to rise. So we think the average oil company is discounting something like 65 or 70 today and they probably should discount something like 80

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[12:50] oil settles $70 a barrel

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[11:16] I don't think we are not going back to $60 to $65 a barrel which a lot of these stocks were priced for

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[24:10] I think in another week or so I think our prices will will naturally grow up go up. I think initially the shortages hit uh uh Asia first.

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[4:38] I think what you're going to get, David, is it's going to be higher for longer than people expect that it is. [...] we think that oil will continue to be a good something you should look at

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[4:27] looking further out for reasons that you and I discussed as much as a year ago, namely the deferral of a billion dollars a day in sustaining capital, the prices that you see today will likely be present in 2029

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[33:00] when you start to see the year-over-year change in oil turn negative, which it's probably going to within the next few quarters

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[29:18] I'm inclined to up and the reason is uh these physical shortages they're not going to be resolved... So, the answer is up.

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[2:43] all things being equal i would think oil will be back in the 60s before the third quarter.

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[8:07] I think it stays around $100 a barrel, maybe even higher depending on how much of the infrastructure they destroy in Iran in these next three weeks.

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[14:48] Even if the war ends, we know that a lot of uh countries are going to be looking to increase their stockpiles of oil. So, they'll still be buying for that uh reason. It'll probably still be a geopolitical risk premium associated with oil. So prices could fall enough to help us avoid a recession, but they're not going back to where they were in February.

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[7:24] So, I do think that oil prices are not going back to the 60 $65 range uh where it was before the war. I think 8085 is the new 6065.

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[37:33] I say it's going to come online faster than skeptics think, but it still will take a long time. Um I think the first half a million barrels a day will be easier than most people realize to bring online.

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[11:43] Based on the chart pattern right now, the first major level is 140.

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[6:49] I do think that oil number comes down significantly within a week or two. I do think there will be a resolution here.

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[26:34] I think that you probably will see at some point over the next month or so oil prices coming back down.

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[6:47] in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going

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[32:12] The long-term real price of oil will be lower from here. um especially if the top is already in.

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[6:09] what markets are expecting, this will be a fairly short-lived event and then we're going to get back to business of growing the economy.

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[0:11] I think this is the year I finally get to my $40 barrel call in crude oil.

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[3:43] I would expect a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel.

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[12:03] which means we continue to price this in as a shock rather than a structural change.

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[3:01] a year from now, oil is trading at $69.

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[22:29] So, I think that the high for oil is going to be in for at least for a couple months. And I I I can say that with a lot of conviction because we we study capitulation moments um scientifically and the move today is is um very very unusual. So yeah, I think the highs for for the year are probably in

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[27:39] We've already said that the price of gasoline has gone up about 50 cents on average in the United States in the last few weeks and and it will go up. It'll continue to go up because as you just said, we had a West Texas Intermediate crude hit a hit a 52- week high today.

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[3:36] At this point, I kind of think that's what's going to happen. And I think we'll fall back down into this range.

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[20:40] And then a year or so's time after that, it'll be oil and oil's going to go ballistic. Not soon, I don't think. But it will go ballistic at some point

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[8:30] We could be in a year or two, even if the economy slides into recession. Oil could be $100 per barrel. That would not shock me one bit.

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[34:12] if we talk again a couple of years from now, I would imagine that we're seeing uh oil trading at least up into the 80s, perhaps in the '90s.

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[31:32] we expected oil to bottom in Q1.

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[5:56] I think oil prices are headed up.

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[31:34] And then in I 18 months, two years, oil's going to go mental.

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[25:54] this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil

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[23:38] I think the oil price is going to 85 or 90.

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[20:01] My favorite commodity for 2026 though is oil. I think at $56 a barrel for WTI, it's probably one of the cheapest assets in the world and finding it a very attractive place to invest right now

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[21:10] I would suggest to you David that peak oil demand doesn't occur in my lifetime and probably not in yours.

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[34:44] I think that oil crude oil prices are probably going to be still struggle to go up. I think they're going to continue to maybe be sideways to down. I think the supply demand in crude oil is still still kind of weak.

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[27:43] more pressure downwards. Um there's nothing no bullish catalyst on the horizon that we see. there's just so much of it, David.

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[32:35] it could be significantly higher in the next three to five years but let's just say it's higher a hundred dollars a barrel maybe$1und whatever

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[10:32] And I think crude oil is going back to 40.

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[0:00] I think there's really only one way this resolves from a price perspective. And I think it's just a matter of time before we get into an environment where we hit multiple all-time highs.

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[16:00] I think there is geopolitical risk. I think it's not priced in. And like we were saying, I think even just modestly better energy and trade policy by the US could give us back, you know, 10 or $15 of price even in a situation where you have OPEC bringing back on supply. So I think there's some real nice asymmetry here. And again, I don't think that oil should necessarily be $100 here with the current supply demand dynamic, but I think the path towards marginal sanctions enforcement on Iran and sort of normalization, uh, I think there's a decent shot at sort of a $75 plus oil price through the end of the year.

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[30:38] I think we're probably going to see oil back down at 56 $57.

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[21:03] we feel like that that's the next that's the next move you'll get from oil over the next 12 months it'll perk up.

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[11:27] looked like crude oil to me was going to head to $40 a barrel. Now we have a good reason to do that.

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[12:13] Oil's going to 50 bucks. Like you just pulled it off. I don't know who's buying oil at 61, but they don't like money.

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[27:13] There's a very critical line in the sand around the $65 per barrel area, which I believe it's going to break at some point... So I believe we're going to see oil break down.

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