Art Berman Predictions
Petroleum Geologist and Energy Market Expert
Track Art Berman's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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my comparative inventory model suggesting severe price pressures could materialize by November
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[33:04] I don't see anything like that coming in the next uh you know, the next few days or weeks or even months. That's a that's a real problem.
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[3:00] the longer term into next year, I would be pleasantly surprised if Hormuz flows return to 50% of pre-war by the middle of 2027. Uh, I I just don't I I I don't see it happening.
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[2:46] my most likely case is that basically nothing changes between now and the end of the year. I mean, you know, we might have weeks where it looks a little better and weeks where it looks a little worse.
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[33:03] probably 80 or 90% will come back the way it was given a couple of days or a couple of weeks. Some of it may not or never will.
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[17:22] Spoiler alert. Um there won't be any deal. I promise you there won't be any deal. I wish I wish I could be more optimistic. This is just this is political theater.
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[27:37] my base case is that hormones never returns to normal flows. And there are many reasons for that. The first is political. If if I am Iran and I now control the straight of Hormuz, which gives me it makes me the most powerful country in the world essentially... Why would I ever give that up?
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[49:48] some of that production is never going to come back. Now, I don't know what percentage of that production, but I can tell you where it is. And most of that older production that has been underwater flood, as we call it, is in Iraq. Iraq's a big producer, huge producer. All right. So a lot of that Iraqi and and Iran by the way.
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[5:39] all that means is that there's a lag and and it it's coming to us as well... we're getting very close to running out of our savings account. And once that happens, then we got no money.
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