Lance Roberts Predictions

Portfolio Manager

Track Lance Roberts's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

11 forecasts 1 wrong 10 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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11 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will enter a period of low returns for a decade or two as the current secular bull market ends
See quote
[30:28] we're getting towards the end of that secular bull market period. Valuations are elevated. We've got a lot of exuberance in the markets. um you know there's a whole variety of demographic issues that are going on with the economy that are going to lead up to having this period of low returns for a decade or two

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-16 2036-12-31 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The current secular bull market will end within the next three to four years
See quote
[32:25] if you just look at the historical length of secular bull markets, we're close to the end of this cycle. Next three, four years probably.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-16 2030-12-31 pending
Lance Roberts Passive Investing Passive capital flows into markets will peak and begin to diminish within a few single-digit years
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[26:28] I think we can actually start to see the peak of the mountain on these passive capital flows. is like I don't know exactly when it's going to happen but I think it could be within a couple years like singledigit years we get to the point where those um those passive flows start to diminish you know first in in their rate of increase but then they actually start to to decrease

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-16 2031-12-31 pending
Lance Roberts Semiconductors Semiconductors will revert to the mean with a decline of 30-40% from current parabolic levels
See quote
[31:47] you just got a parabolic move in semiconductors, and that will end badly at some point. Now, you know, a reversion to the mean, it may be 30 or 40%. And for those people that are buying it now, you're going to lose a lot of money.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-09 2027-05-09 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will see a pullback to its 20-day or 50-day moving averages due to overbought conditions
See quote
[0:00] I still believe uh because momentum is very overbought here because relative strength is very overbought here that we could see a bit of a pullback you know back toward this deviation to the 20-day moving average is very large the deviation to the 100 and the 50-day is is very very large. This is a very big gap over the 50-day moving average. So you're eventually going to get a correction back to this level.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-02 2026-06-02 pending
Lance Roberts Semiconductors Semiconductors will experience a correction from current levels
See quote
[6:08] Semiconductors are are just going crazy right now. Um they're very overbought, very extended. you know, if there's, and this is kind of some of the workaround we did this week... when you get these parabolic moves, you're going to get a correction at some point, which will give you a better buying opportunity

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-25 2026-10-25 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will have a 5 to 10% correction this summer heading into midterm elections, followed by an end of year rally
See quote
[11:55] I fully expect this summer we're going to have another 5 to 10% correction uh heading into midterm elections and then you'll have an end of the end of the year run.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-18 2026-09-30 pending
Lance Roberts Germany Germany will be pushed into a recession due to high oil prices
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[15:10] Germany which was already struggling just barely above recession levels anyway. This is almost assuredly going to push Germany into a recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-04 2026-12-31 pending
Lance Roberts Oil West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will drop back to the $60 range by the end of 2026
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[6:09] what markets are expecting, this will be a fairly short-lived event and then we're going to get back to business of growing the economy.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-21 2026-12-31 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally back above the 200 day moving average to 6720-6750 next week
See quote
[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-21 2026-03-28

The prediction claimed a rally back above the 200-day moving average to 6720-6750, but the period high during the target week was only $6651.62 on 2026-03-23, which falls short of the claimed 6720-6750 price target range by at least $68.38.

Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally starting within the next week through April, experience volatility through summer midterm elections, then rally into year end.
See quote
[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-14 2026-12-31 pending