Semiconductors Predictions
Browse Semiconductors market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
See quote
[23:17] you you are seeing that software or or the semis are actually holding up much better uh than the market here in the last several weeks. I put a chart out um you know a few weeks ago on my substack that you know it looked like software was slowing and that semis could take over and you've have you have since seen a relative strength in flection that semis are gaining traction over software
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[35:06] you have to now plan for China shock 3.0 of if you want to go down this you know this argument which is South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and elsewhere even the United States where things like chips um you know anything related to the tech stack all of that now is being manufactured in China as well. At this point, the quality is not great. They don't have the yields. But when you see art, when you see news articles or anybody else saying like ASML is my favorite, ASML, which makes one of the most important components for lithography that the Taiwanese need. You know, you have ASML and others saying the Chinese are 15 years behind us. Don't worry about it. People need to stop saying that because every time you hear the Chinese are so far behind, China was two or three years behind in AI, now they're neck and neck.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:02] if we go like two years from let's say in uh the coming years 1.7 trillion of spending like the Nvidia said 70% growth let's say the year after it's going down 20%. So these stocks are going to go down and that because they're so important also in the S&P 500 they might take the whole stock market down with that.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[26:02] Because the demand for inference from humanoid robots and wearable smart glasses will vastly overcompensate for whatever plausible efficiencies we can recover.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:00] I would be a seller of this move. It's a dead cat bounce. And that's why you see these waterfalls like you saw in 2000, like you saw in 2022 where retail keeps buying the dip based on recency bias. And these these waterfalls tend to persist for more than just a few weeks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:46] I think you're going to see into, you know, maybe the third, four week uh third, fourth week, week of August, uh this deadcat bounce. But retail investors are now chasing this short covering move off the lows 20 30% on stocks that had fallen, you know, in the month of July alone, 30 to some in some cases 55 60%.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed the dead cat bounce would peak in the third/fourth week of August before reversing lower. The period high of $600.37 occurred on 2026-08-17 (trading day 3, which is the third week of August), and the price subsequently declined to a low of $540.75 by August 24 and closed at $556.63 on the target date (-4.8%), confirming both the timing of the peak and the subsequent reversal lower.
See quote
[38:25] these really big name semiconductors. I mean, I I I think people that don't use this as a time to sell those are going to pay the price. And that's a group that's feast or famine. I've been around them for 40 years and they've all the way back to Texas Instruments and they it's feast or famine. I mean, you're going to blow them up, but they're going to come right back, give it all back one of these days.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:32] there's a decent probability we're going to see SMH roll over again and take out the recent low at 503.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed SMH would take out its recent low at 503, but the period low was $537.73 on 2026-09-14, which never came close to 503 (the price started at $582.7 and the lowest it reached was $537.73, still well above 503).
See quote
[8:51] I I think you're going to look for support at the 200 day moving average. Many names bounced off the 200 day moving average here more recently. Um you know that's where it should find support.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[39:25] I mentioned the semiconductor index before it it went parabolic that's never a good sign whether the silver price goes parabolic or the semiconductors or bitcoin at some point yeah it it comes comes down hard and um and that seems to happening now with the semiconductors many of the old school tech uh stocks are already down heavily over the last few months um I'm a bit cautious here
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[23:37] I do think I think the tops are in in a lot of markets, including the semiconductors, because I do think margins are going to compress. There's no doubt about it.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[24:08] you're going to get a snapback that's probably epic in these stocks. I mean, I could see Sandis going back to 13-,500, 50% upside potentially off the lows. But at the same time, you got to just be realistic that these are cyclical... I do think again bounces are to be sold into uh in the semis.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[11:50] This is literally a replay of the tech bubble except not to the same degree. It hasn't gone down 70%. But it's on the way there.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:02] I don't think this correction is over. I don't think that we're going to new all-time highs on the semiconductors. I am relatively confident, high probability that the top is in for the cycle of these.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[8:41] whenever this semiconductor cycle peaks uh and starts to go down, it's probably going to be pretty severe and it's going to take a while to play out before they really become a a place you want to actively look in again.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[15:47] I'm a I'm a little worried um about them. And then the last one is just what I would call that the software companies. And I think they don't have a moat is I guess my point. Most of their profits, Adam, uh to your to your point, actually just come because they jacked up prices. They're not even increased volumes that much.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[23:17] Yeah that's going to unwind later this year. Is that your thesis? I I I think I think absolutely.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[15:18] So, you could see some correction in the the you know, month, a few weeks to a month.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction called for a correction lasting a few weeks to a month from early July 2026. SMH dropped from $592.29 to a period low of $503.63 on trading day 18 (July 29), representing a decline of approximately 14.9%, which clearly constitutes a meaningful correction over the predicted timeframe.
See quote
[11:02] I I suspect that we'll be shocked at how quickly this cycle rolls over and how much this ends up being a little bit of a mirage in terms of the demand for these things.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[8:03] until memory ceases to be a bottleneck, you know, that's an area I'm going to want to be in... I do think memory is an area you want to be in.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[24:17] I've got a big put in arc. I've got a big put in SMH semiconductors and then we're longing a bunch of the bottleneck names.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[0:18] I think your big risk is in semiconductors. Those stocks have gotten way ahead of themselves right now. There's a lot of concentration in that sector. I would be careful with that sector. I would take profits. I would hedge um and then kind of let this market kind of work its way through.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:40] what's going to happen to semiconductors in the notsodistant future is going to be a very major reversion back to its mean.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:29] everyone right now is in the chips, right? The microns and the semis, which is a commodity which is going to absolutely crash and burn.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[15:16] it's going to be problematic uh you know over the next year 2 3 years significantly problematic for a lot of these companies at the the center of the the AI bubble.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[3:50] semiconductor stocks are up 80% in nine weeks. These are these are blowoff tops. We've seen this before in the dotcom era and there are shortages but shortages lead to glutes and we think this is the last gasp the last the last takeoff in the AI stocks
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed semiconductor stocks were at a blowoff top and near their peak, implying a significant reversal. From the prediction date price of $569.69, the period high was $671.83 (up ~18%) before the period low of $503.63 (down ~11.6%), and the final price was nearly flat at -0.5%. The stock actually rallied significantly higher before pulling back, meaning the prediction of being 'near their peak' was partially correct (there was a reversal from the high), but the claim of a major reversal/crash typical of 'blowoff tops' and 'last gasp' language implies a substantial sustained decline, which didn't materialize as the price ended nearly flat at the target date.
See quote
[7:31] for right now, these things are, you know, probably going to be longer gold, longer government bonds, longer emerging markets, you know, and less long US AI stocks and semiconductors at this point.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:24] This is what's called a parabolic move. This is not sustainable... your first correction point is at $320 a share. You're at 600. You're talking about a 50% correction just to get to your first level of support. and and the 50-month moving average is the long-term running support of this rally... this is about a 75% decline in the markets just to get back to that moving average, which it will most likely do.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:44] the semiconductors, you know, they're like, you know, that's that's probably the high you'll see for five years in that group. They're way overpriced.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[14:04] I think I think the stock prices themselves are telling you the end is not in semiconductors at least. Whether that causes a general market problem remains to be seen.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[27:32] Lots of growth to come here. We think for years provided these companies are still spending on on capex.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[14:44] which is why we're very bullish on the Chinese um semiconductor companies.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:25] This is a bad time to be buying semis. Forward returns from this point in the cycle are horrendous... I think forward returns looking at 12 months, 24 months are going to be pretty poor for some.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[29:09] Uh I think the sevies are going to break sometime in the next 6 months because of this whole artificial intelligence capbacks over overpromising.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bearish, claiming semiconductors would 'break down' in the next 6 months. The period low was $7084.13 (a decline of about 9.3% from $7810.4), which represents only a modest pullback, not a 'breakdown.' By the target date, the SOX had surged 52.8% to $11931.32, and the period high reached $14655.29. The sector did not break down; it rallied dramatically.
See quote
[25:22] I think semi capex has to accelerate and I think you'll see that. I think wafer starts will accelerate
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[9:06] based on this chart, we should be due for a sizable correction in the semiconductor trade.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 'sizable correction' (bearish), but the period low of $314.07 represents only a 7.4% decline from the prediction date price of $339.24, which is modest rather than sizable, and the price ultimately rose 20.1% by the target date, contradicting the bearish thesis.
See quote
[33:51] that's why I'm super super bullish on Chinese semiconductor companies because they are going to power not just China's AI boom, but the global majority's AI boom because nobody trusts America as a steady trading partner right now.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.