John-Clark Levin Predictions
Head of Research at Kurzweil Technologies
Track John-Clark Levin's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
- Submit corrections
See quote
[5:27] The core assumption concerns compute scale. So, this was a prediction Ray Kurzweil made back in 1999 in a book called The Age of Spiritual Machines, that the rate of doubling of computation price performance, that is calculations per second per inflation-adjusted dollar, was every one to two years that was doubling. And that trend went all the way back to the world's first working programmable computer in Nazi Germany in 1939. And Ray assessed that if that exponential trend continued, we would get access to human scale useful computation at the end of the 2020s in 2029.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[10:59] I do expect there to be a market correction before AGI. But after AGI, the report does capture some important insights. So, first maybe we should talk a little bit about the dynamics that would drive this market correction. I don't think it would be because AI capabilities will plateau or hit a wall as many people have been predicting every year for the past 4 years or so. Rather, the dynamic we should focus on is the gap between peak capabilities, the best things AI can do in a demo, and reliability, the best things AI can do roughly as reliably as humans. And there's a significant gap between those two. And although market speculation and hype are driven by the peak capabilities in the demos, adoption in the real economy is driven by reliability. And although reliability is increasing very fast, it's huffing and puffing trying to catch up to peak capabilities, and I don't think that markets will be uh tolerant of that gap persisting for the next three whole years.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[28:21] I predict that Steve Wozniak's famous coffee test, can a humanoid robot enter an unfamiliar kitchen and make a cup of coffee, will be passed before the end of this calendar year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[26:02] Because the demand for inference from humanoid robots and wearable smart glasses will vastly overcompensate for whatever plausible efficiencies we can recover.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[13:32] when wearable smart glasses have their iPhone moment, probably sometime in the next few years, that will be an enormous draw on inference as those smart glasses have to passively and contextually assess your environment as you're going about your day and figure out how best to help you and advise you.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.