George Noble Predictions
Managing Partner
Track George Noble's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[6:11] We spoke last time about the possibility of the yields going to 5% or higher. U, you asked me, do I have more conviction in that view now? Yes, I certainly do.
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[6:49] the leadership, as you know, many of your guests have spoken about has become very narrow. Um, it's been all tech all the time since the end of March. I think that's to me that's unsustainable. It looks like a tremendous blowoff.
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[7:40] Consumer stocks making multi-year relative lows, Home Depot, Lowe's, McDonald, Lululemon, just go down the list... I think the consumer stocks have been underperforming. I think they continue to underperform whether we technically get a definition to get a defined um uh recession or not.
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[12:32] I think the gold miners are outstanding right now. They're out of favor. So, the talking heads aren't talking about them, but I think this is a great time to be in the gold miners. So, gold miners, energy, regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil.
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[19:08] god forbid the price of gold goes up which I for expect it will these stocks could double triple without any problem at all... I think I think gold and gold miners go higher.
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[11:25] The yen has continued to weaken. Yeah, it's bounced a little bit the last couple weeks, but in the bigger scheme of things, the yen has been much weaker than virtually anyone anticipated. There's a simple reason for that. Interest rates aren't high enough.
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[21:30] I think this continues to be perhaps the biggest misallocation of uh capital in the history of the world. Right now, the market doesn't care about it broadly speaking... the MAG 7's done well the last few weeks, but prior to that, it did poorly for 5 6 months. It made up that underperformance in a relatively short period of time. And I think we're soon going back to that.
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[23:27] I believe the earnings of Nvidia are in a bubble. People say, 'Well, the PE is not high.' Yeah, I know the PE is not high, but look at where the margins are relative to the past... the problem with Nvidia is not what are they making last quarter, this quarter, it's where it's how sustainable are these earnings and these margins, what they'll be making three or four years from now.
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[30:44] Fresh which I think we talked about previously which Tom Chains nailed at our last conference. Stock went from 80 to 49. I think it's going it's going to 10.
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[37:55] active managers based on the last day at ISaw are killing it now. You know, I think the easiest way to outperform the market... it was so hard to outpour the market for a number of years cuz if you didn't know Mag 7, you were dead.
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[27:40] you're seeing, you know, as some have pointed out, um, the whole kamay thing, it started out with gold. That's moved to energy, food, depending what you're looking at, starting to really pick up like meat prices... it's starting to permeate. And then you look in the sector in the in the service sector inflation is kind of sticky.
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[12:42] regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil. Drill, baby, drill. And, you know, per growth in the Perian has plateaued... I think the service companies look terrific. Uh we've been in the OIH. Um I think land drillers in particular in particular look look very good right now.
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[4:28] I think, uh, you know, oil prices were looking at higher for longer. If we use the sports phrase, if we look at the overunder, I'll take the over.
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[7:47] I think bonds are mispriced. I think yields are heading up.
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[10:27] I think you faded here... if you want to make a market call, which I don't like making, I think I I'd sell out rather than buy it.
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[4:10] The inflation number you asked about, I think there's more where that came from.
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[18:04] is gold going to 6,000, 8,000, 10,000. I think it is eventually... I think gold and the miners and silver and the miners are going much higher.
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[20:38] So to me, I mean, stocks like 30 and change that, 33, whatever it is, the stock could easily double in the next year easily.
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[10:43] I would stay away from tech, just as I mentioned last time. Software, we said stay away from it's too hard. I'd still stay away from that.
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[19:25] This is a bad time to be buying semis. Forward returns from this point in the cycle are horrendous... I think forward returns looking at 12 months, 24 months are going to be pretty poor for some.
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[35:52] The risk you should be concerned about right now is not recession, depression, interest rates going down. Owning bonds, having 40% of your portfolio in bonds does not hedge you against that risk.
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[6:56] it wouldn't surprise me if you see yields north of 5% um or more.
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[9:31] I expect China, the Chinese stock market and historically haven't been a fan of Chinese equities. I think that's going to outperform the the US uh again in uh in in 26.
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[11:40] do I see the dollar lower? Yeah, I do.
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[5:56] I think oil prices are headed up.
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[5:52] I think inflation is sticky and probably heading up.
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[31:11] I think small caps will outperform large caps. But it's not so much because I'm bullish on small caps. It's because I think large caps are going to do worse. Small caps might be flat and large caps are going to go down. So I think small caps will will outperform large caps.
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