Gold Miners Predictions

[28:00] if you look at the valuations, the magnificent seven stocks are still valued I think 10 times higher than uh the average uh valuation of let's say Newman and Bareric. The last time I checked New and Barrack still have pees of around 1011 which is dirt cheap. uh the the the the old um valuation for gold miners let's say 15 years ago was always a P of 25

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[9:02] I mean, this is generational wealth will be made in the right mining sector, in the right mining names and the right mining plays.

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[10:51] the multiples in equities will be far higher than the multiples in just the gold spot price.

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[9:24] all this cash now isn't going to increase supply and that's I think why this gold and silver story and the miners has a has longer legs than most people think. It'll be cyclical. It'll be pretty volatile but fundamentally it just takes a really really really long period of time to get gold and silver mines up and running

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[5:44] we're going to see a rapid appreciation in the valuation of gold miners and silver miners versus gold. A catch-up back to old reality. And even if this rally only carries to the bottom end of what might have been what was the prior range that existed 1980, 1990, 2008, that period. Then you're going to double or more where this spread is right now.

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[6:32] Gold goes up X amount, they go up 2X, okay? But there's another implication here.

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[20:13] over the last 6 weeks we replenished all of that cuz we think they all of that stuff will do well going into the end of the year.

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[16:24] So this was bearish around here and was bearish basically from here on down. It went up to neutral and it just you can see this chart like it just hasn't broken out yet. And now we're starting to get that breakout. So that's why this is bullish short-term and this has major um support here at 75.32.

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[29:33] I think there's a potential of GDX making it to 102 and even potentially to a new all-time high above 117. If gold reaches those targets I'm talking about 45 to 4700, I think GDX can make it up there.

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[29:52] I think we're nearing a short-term high in GDX in part. Also, I think the dollar index may have completed its correction today. So, you know what that implies to me, David, is we're close to seeing a rebound rally in the dollar index and that will, I think, just take give people a reason to take some money off the table in both gold and gold stocks.

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[16:35] I think M&A activities will start to to ramp up over the next uh weeks, months, probably one to three years as you know the big producers making huge amounts of cash at even 4,000 gold and they need to and will redeploy that money and of course and they go into the junior sector and we haven't seen any M&A activity or crazy M&A activity yet in that bull run or in that bull market. So I think that's probably coming

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[11:06] this bounce in the market in the precious metal space really is just at this point is just a bounce within a downtrend... we can't quite quite trust it yet... based on that, you know, just looking at this chart pattern, we could say, okay, well, just based on this chart pattern, you know, here's where this tiny little moving average crossover could carry you, which is about to 8050, which again, it's not that much upside from where we are.

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[17:08] I do think that ultimately you will see the miners outperform gold. So, for those of us out there that want that better return, now it comes with added risk.

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[36:54] if you're looking for a a high potential reward for your invested dollars, I think you got to go for the gold and silver stocks. And for that matter, the oil stocks. All All three of them are really cheap right now.

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[20:25] I I I think we are we're I think we're still at 7:00. Uh we got we got a long ways to go for for the mining sector. So, we're not nearly at the end.

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[3:03] About 3 weeks ago it for the first time in many years it flashed me to be buying gold miners.

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[27:00] miners I think again look extremely attractive. I think they've come down from the GDX come down I think from like 120. It's trading at about 75 now... the miners, I think, have overshot the price of gold to the downside.

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[39:06] I wouldn't be surprised to see um precious metals producers double over the next let's say 12 to 18 months.

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[23:44] the next leg up could well be stronger and longer than the the the move up that we've seen in the last two years.

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[27:17] I think the gold miners in particular are incredibly interesting because you know the lever plays in the gold price and when the gold price starts to go again which I think it will some of these mining stocks I think will double or triple from here.

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[22:52] you probably close to washing all of those people out, you know, and and getting rid of that momentum. And if you are, then that sets you up for a nice move in in gold and the miners and silver too up up into next year sometime. So I I I think they're in a good spot here.

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[2:38] you're seeing some of the the best and well-run businesses in the mining industry now down 4550%. So it is to me a very uh very important opportunity that I'm I'm willing to uh uh to put capital to work in this in this situation.

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[8:24] if you want to look at the trade for the next six nine months, it's really that stagflation trade, that slower economy, midterm elections, the fiscal you're you're really going to see a fiscal uh control put in Washington. In other words, less deficit spending, slower growth, sticky inflation, and and that's a really good recipe for um Agneo Eagle, AEM equity, GDX, and the gold miners. It's pounding the table by down here.

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[30:24] the gold miners could like triple from here and they would still own if the gold miners triple from here right now all the gold miners combined gold and silver are worth I think 700 billion dollars right so if they triple you Oh, they're not not even half the size of Nvidia

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[9:27] I think the majors right now are they offer as much upside potential as a junior mining play even an exploration company and and with much less risk because they are making so much money that has yet to be recognized by the broader market because they've got stars in their eyes with AI and everything else and have been distracted from uh the companies that are actually out there making money.

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[10:06] Yeah, they will lever it uh eventually. Um and they will work their way down the food chain. We have to acknowledge the fact that most of these companies have gone up three or fourfold from where they were 18 months ago. Uh so we've already had a fairly nice move. not nearly uh much in comparison to where we're going.

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[14:57] when they get back to work in Labor Day, after Labor Day here in the US or after the end end of the summer, they're going to look back and they're likely going to see the gold price up 5 or 10%, these mining stocks up 20 or 30%. And they've just missed those gains through sheer inattention.

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[1:45] producers great place all the the big ones are you know like theos of the world newmonts of the world those are all solid um operators that have multiple assets I don't think you're going to miss much there

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[1:00] the valuations of the equities are at at very low levels much much closer to the low all-time lows and even to the averages... I would 100% absolutely look for opportunities right now if you're new or underinvested in the is I would absolutely invest now

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[10:02] price is down, valuation's down, sentiment weak. I mean, that is just the perfect setup for a strong move.

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[13:23] I don't think we've seen a market top yet. People are waiting. We're seeing a lot more money being raised just the last few weeks again with sentiment and maybe trust coming back into the sector.

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[26:25] I think we're continuing to see uh pressure on uh labor costs in the mining industry, but fundamentally, I think we're still sitting in a place where uh gold mining companies are going to be generating record levels of free cash flow this year. And you know I expect next year and next year I think you know this is a very healthy environment um on for margins in the gold mining business

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[13:36] The mainstream public are much more likely to buy mining shares and junior mining shares than the central bank of China will. So that'll be the next wave also in terms of the equity markets catching up to the gold prices.

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[16:00] yes I mean this this pullback has created lots of opportunity um it's created opportunity in the junior mining space where I allocate most of my capital but also for investors want to be a little uh less risky let's say that producing gold producers have also had significant pullbacks many of them are pulled back 30 40% off their highs hit in January February of 2026... yes, there's a big opportunity in the in the mid-tier space as well.

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[33:05] It is still showing that we're going to see a very precipitous drop in gold, silver, and miners. uh they're they're going to continue to unwind, I think... is saying we could see GDX, for example, come all the way down to 69. It could come all the way down to about uh 58. So, from where it's trading right now, we could see another 20% haircut fairly easily.

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[41:30] they might not have a good summer, but 5 years from now they won't remember this summer.

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[38:42] I think that changes in two or three years. Uh I think you have a market right now where the owners of the companies, the shareholders, particularly institutional shareholders are insisting on a very rigid fiscal discipline. uh I think that changes because I think the concern over the next two years will be the ability of companies to maintain or or increase their production

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[41:45] I think over the next five years the prices that are going to be paid for those discoveries uh are going to be surprisingly stiff.

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[18:01] I think it'll be a while before the miners kind of get that bounce. Like, I think we're going to need gold stabilized first. Same thing with silver. I think you're going to need some stability there before you see the miners start to rebound.

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[42:33] I still own a basket of gold um juniors that I've had um for sort of a two years or something and just sit on it. I think they're great value and I'm not really too bothered that they've pulled back. I want to hold it for the longer term.

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[37:42] I think they're going to end up beating the S&P on the year. I think they'll end up beating the Nasdaq on the year, too. So, we'll see how you know, how the rest of the year plays out.

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[4:12] I'm I'm still I'm still if you're talking long-term 3 to five years, I'm still bullish on gold and the gold mining stocks.

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[16:08] I think we're only at the beginning of the M&A part of this cycle. I think majors need to see some stability of the gold price, so they understand what they're paying for. And then I absolutely think they will... that will force them to do M&A.

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[26:15] we may be a bull market be in a bull market of of for gold and and and copper but we're not in a bull market yet for mining stocks okay um relative to past markets which I've been very familiar with over the years

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[29:17] You're going to see a lot of more M&A majors acquiring intermediates, intermediaries acquiring juniors, juniors merging together to create intermediates. there's going to be a lot of M&A and I've seen it in past cycles and I'm I'm surprised it hasn't happened to the extent that it should happen yet

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[8:19] You know, it it's absolutely overdone. You know, the old adage is if you're in a bull market, buy the dips. That's this I think for the mining stocks and and for silver is one of those opportunities that the market is providing us.

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[10:56] the money to be made in it from a capital appreciation reason only is owning the mining shares, not the physical gold. And that's why my focus is now more emphasis on the shares and even going down the food chain into the more risk development type companies

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[29:20] I think you're going to see a lot of these, uh, buyouts, which is why, you know, my our fund is about a third in these juniors. And you know that's been a drag on performance in the last couple of years. But I think ultimately that's going to be what causes us to have substantial outperformance because I think all these stocks are going to get bought out for big premiums.

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[12:32] I think the gold miners are outstanding right now. They're out of favor. So, the talking heads aren't talking about them, but I think this is a great time to be in the gold miners. So, gold miners, energy, regardless what the energy price does, we're going to have to drill for a lot more oil.

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[27:27] All the miners are are getting cheaper. Now, don't get me wrong... they're getting selling right now... even though they're probably going to come down a little more.

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[38:57] even if gold just hangs out here for the next 5 years and consolidates this move, the amount of value in the gold equity sector is mindboggling. I mean, what's is another way of saying and what's being priced into the gold equities is something well below the current spot price. So, the equities are giving you a second shot at the a second bite at the apple, if you will, where you can buy gold effectively probably at 3,00 3,500 through the equities.

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[10:24] In a in a rising gold price environment, gold stocks generally outperform the gold price by three or four to one. So yeah, I I believe investing if you want exposure to gold right now, buying the gold miners and gold development companies uh make a lot of sense especially since relative to the gold price most of them are undervalued today

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[14:43] I think the people doing that are going to be proven spectacularly wrong, just not yet. Um, and when it happens, it will happen fast. then the move will be violent.

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[3:44] I think this one will last um at least two years. I think it began in August.

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[5:26] I think the profitability and the leverage will come more from the share side than it did in the physical.

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[20:44] I think that these mining stocks are, believe it or not, still undervalued. Gold slightly overvalued. Mining stocks still very cheap. I think they got a big run in front of them still.

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[11:05] I think there's a swing trade here for upside B on GDX back into the 94 range.

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[4:46] I think we can get a 20 to 30% draw down in the gold miners from the highs because of those diesel costs which are up 70% off the December lows

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[18:48] I think three years we we'll see many investors come into the old mining stock space and so that's kind of my time horizon for those.

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[7:37] They will, when I say they, I mean the big royalty and streaming companies will do more by way of transactions in the next seven years than they have in the last 40.

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[3:32] I actually believe that and there is now sufficient capital to follow up on good drill holes on good work. We're coming into a very very very exciting period throughout the value chain and mining. But I think two years from now we're coming into a particularly exciting period in the exploration side because there's been such a der of discoveries leading up to now. There's good results coming now and when a good deposit gets found, it will be bought for eyepopping multiples.

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[13:39] I think we're in the very early stages of that. you know you may see some volatility that would be normal 20 30% pullback yeah sure that's normal that would probably happen now the direction of the trade the direction of the investment thesis I think it's long and it's got long legs in my view

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[19:14] gold stocks have not moved relative to other asset classes. If you pull up a chart of gold and uh I mean yeah, gold and gold stocks, you'll see that gold stocks really haven't broken out as a group relative to the gold price... That is still ahead in my opinion and I'm investing accordingly.

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[33:51] But if we're looking at the price of gold secularly or the price of silver secularly, the miners are going to rip. But again, know your entry, know your exit.

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[0:12] if I had to put this in baseball terms, I would say we're in a gold stock bull market and I think we're probably in the second inning.

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[0:07] the gold stocks will do significantly better than bullion

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[23:42] I still think they will do as well, if not better, than the stock market, at least for the balance of this year and into 2026

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[23:13] So I think well they are likely to correct. In fact, they have corrected which is something that we wrote about here a few weeks ago. But I think it's going to be a relatively shallow and contained correction for the gold miners and then they'll be up again.

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[14:04] I think longer term uh the GDX and even the GDXJ have a lot higher price levels to reach before there's any really consideration to any meaningful top.

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