Doug Casey Predictions

[6:05] I'd be long oil at this point. Uh but as volatile as it is, if you want to be long oil, the way to do it is through, I think, oil stocks or by uh doing spreads with um commodity options. And I'm putting that theory into practice myself. I'm long a lot of oil stocks, and uh I actually have bull spreads on for oil at this point. I think they're going to work out well.

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[17:01] I think um what's really cheap is the shares of the companies that produce it. So, I think that's the best way to play it because Look, let's go back to the last peak of the oil or energy boom, which was in 1980. And in 1980 about 20% of the S&P was oil and gas and energy generally, 20%. Today, as we speak, it's 4%. So, uh people don't I mean, the market is just not interested in oil and gas stocks. And as a kind of uh the Catholics would say an outward sign of inward grace is the dividends that they're yielding. I mean, some oil and gas stocks are yielding 10% or more in current dividends, and they're safe dividends. And if uh if I'm right about oil and gas themselves trending higher over the short term, forget about the long-term of history, those dividends are going to go up.

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[23:20] I guess of all these things, and not just because it's used to create urea, uh which is nice. Um I guess I'm most favorably towards natural gas at these current prices, around $3.

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[22:05] I think the play is really to buy the commodities themselves at this point. And particularly corn. I think corn is the cheapest of the commodities relative to its cost of production.

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[26:04] Yeah. I think so, because sulfur is uh largely a byproduct of refining fossil fuels. So, um it would seem that sulfur prices, which have gone up a lot, cuz a lot of it comes from the Middle East, uh are going to descend and the costs involved in creating fertilizers will go down. So, yeah, that's a reasonable play, and I'd be friendly towards these uh fertilizer companies, absolutely. Both of the ones you mentioned.

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[30:49] I'd say that the bull market in gold is still in motion. And this is just another fluctuation along the way. Listen, at the very beginning of the bull market uh in 1976, gold had reached $200 an ounce, up from $35. And then it collapsed down to a I remember well cuz cuz I took it This was the first I mean, it it really treated me well cuz I I took advantage of that collapse. It went down to $103.50. And then subsequently it rose to $800.

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[32:14] so, I've concentrated on the mining stocks, which actually are very underpriced now relative to everything else. Uh gold is not a not a good speculation at this point.

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[37:58] But, but my answer to the question is, they're going higher because from the early 1980s, they were in a long-term bear market. They went from, say, 15% to negative numbers, which, frankly, I thought was metaphysically impossible to have negative interest rates, but it happened because that's that's all controlled and distorted in the economy we're living in today. Well, since 2022, they've been going up. I think they're going to go up much higher because the Federal Reserve is forced at this time to buy most or a lot of, anyway, the US government's debt.

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[7:47] for years uh I've been predicting something I call the greater depression. I think we've already entered upon the greater depression, which I define as a period of time in which most people's standard of living drops significantly.

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[48:04] Uh copper is something that people have been watching. So, I'll say it's $6 right now. Um And And of course, if the world is electrified, which it's going to be, uh uh copper is the way to do it.

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[10:00] it seems to me that oil is underpriced uh right now at $90 a barrel. If you look at the futures markets, both Brent and uh uh WTI, uh they're in backwardation. In other words, you look at oil several months ahead, it's a lot cheaper than it is on the on on the front month, which seems to be saying that the market thinks that uh oil itself is going to get cheaper. That 6 months from now it's going to be $80 or $70 a barrel, something like that. I don't think so. I think that it's actually going to go much higher

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[21:08] my prediction, and I hesitate to predict the d direction of interest rates, uh, but I think in the coming years, we're going to see interest rates go back to the levels they were in the early 80s and beyond

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[40:10] I believe for the long term I think China is going to continue to rise and that's true of East Asia generally speaking

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[45:53] silver has been in deficit for the last five or 6 years. It's likely to stay in deficit for quite a while

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[0:11] Gold is now trading more than it should be by historical levels. But that doesn't mean it couldn't go to $10,000 an ounce or more because who wants to hold the dollar?

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[0:36] The Iranians are going to make this an asymmetric war, a long war. That's bad news for us here in the West.

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[3:59] Certainly before we get foreign exchange controls, which I also think are on the way, that'll make it impossible for you to diversify even if you're able to.

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[20:44] I think that these mining stocks are, believe it or not, still undervalued. Gold slightly overvalued. Mining stocks still very cheap. I think they got a big run in front of them still.

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[29:03] I think the Iranians are going to come out on top of this. The uh I don't think the US or the Israelis really know what they're doing here.

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[0:00] So, silver hitting $100 next year, would that surprise you? >> No. In fact, I expect it to happen.

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[0:11] we're on the edge of a massive depression. The most basic reason for it is the debasement of the dollar.

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[20:15] no matter what the Fed does in the short run, long-term interest rates are headed up back to the levels that they were in the early 1980s, which most people have forgotten, even the US government was paying 15, 16, 17% for for to sell tea bills. U back in the early 1980s, uh we're headed back there just because of the debasement of the currency.

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[20:46] I think in the next three or four years, it's reasonable that we're going to see even official numbers show inflation's running at 7 8 10% maybe more.

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[25:45] It's going to fall apart because because all these governments in Europe like the they're all bankrupt anyway. So, this is a shell game.

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[29:56] I think they're all going higher. They're all really cheap right now, incidentally. They're really cheap.

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