Copper Predictions

[12:57] something like copper where um we know the US has to invest so much into the grid. Um you know the world wants to move towards electrification. We know they're not building any any more new mines. And while in the short term you're going to see some noise and probably some sensitivity to the economic cycle um 5 years from now you know that market is only going to tighten more.

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[35:35] the seven may even come before 2027, but but like I said, it was the strongest of the metals.

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[21:57] And they wake up to the fact there isn't enough copper. Then they wake up to the fact there's not enough explorers exploring and then they wake up to the fact there's not enough drill bits to drill bit. you know, it's it it's a whole cascade and it's just a matter of finding the areas which people are going to wake up to in the next 90 days so you don't have to hang around for two years waiting for the penny to drop.

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[24:51] copper is one of the things that lubricates uh modern technological civilization can't get along without it. If you go down through the precious metals not just gold but but look at all of them then you have to to look at the source... it too is going to rise dramatically in value

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[14:55] we actually feel more comfortable buying some of the commodities um because there's a structural deficit in a lot of these commodities. And so we're not put off by volatility day in month and we're looking at the long term. You got to look at at this thing three to five years if you're going to buy into copper, you're going to buy silver.

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[21:54] it's structurally different than even the last cycles that could run a decade because there's just not enough deposits because there hasn't been enough investment and because you have new demand layers that never existed before.

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[20:29] I think uh you hear this every so often, right? That is it a bull yet? But you look and there's been certain projects that have done very well, but as a as an average, you know, it has not... I don't think that moment has had happened yet where you really see excitement in in the marketplace, but it's definitely going to come, right? I I have no doubt in my head that that is uh that is a day that's going to happen where you see that that euphoria

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[25:46] I think we're very close to a potential top in the uh at least in copper, I would say. And uh and when that start to come down it's going to be a completely different picture.

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[14:39] I've been calling copper an accident waiting to happen. The question is is the accident starting?

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[20:27] copper breaking down usually coincides with the stock market breaking down... it breaks down always means S&P 500's going down too.

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[11:20] we're at record highs for copper, but it's not going to stop anytime soon.

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[30:24] In a couple of years, today's record prices for copper will look like discounts. Uh and and we'll be kicking ourselves for not buying at these prices.

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[30:11] it doesn't matter really what the copper price goes to. It could go to $8 $9 $10 a pound. Uh is there going to be a significant amount of more copper that comes to the market over that price? Yeah, for sure. But it'll be 5 years from now or even potentially 10 years from now.

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[28:12] I'm also really worried about the grains I don't you know wheat's had a big run I you know people are telling me this morning you know we come off on this on us um in corn as well. But but two things... I'd argue copper is the new oil it's going to be the strategically most important commodity when when we begin to electrify.

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[48:55] I think copper is one that could uh even though I don't cover it too much. Um, copper is going to be needed for electrification and AI, even though I think AI is a bit ahead of itself, it's going to be around.

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[30:13] Copper prices are going to go higher, David.

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[27:08] typically in a gold cycle in a commodity cycle I should say sorry David in a commodity cycle which can be long commodity cycles tend to be long gold will lead in the beginning and gold will lead in the blowoff top at the end right because it's a monetary metal... but in the middle of that cycle and I think we've just entered the middle of that cycle now. Um other things tend to lead and historically that includes copper... Copper will be one of the leaders in the middle of that cycle outperforming gold.

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[29:26] we know what production will be 5 years from now and we simply don't have enough copper. We simply don't have enough copper to meet the demand expectations. It's a higher price.

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[12:56] Copper is making new highs. So, we're we're witnessing supply and demand imbalances... there's a renaissance of copper exploration development in America and in Canada. So I think it's not just gold. I think it's also going to be copper.

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[2:21] I'm a huge bull on on copper from a a a demand perspective, a price perspective, and I think uh it's a challenge for the industry to be able to deliver it.

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[1:00] it doesn't really make a difference which forecast you look at. Uh the demand for copper say out to 2050 is more than we can supply with what we currently have. And it's difficult to see that any of the projects that are ready to be developed, shovel ready or um imminent for that will be able to uh replace not replace but supply what we need for that. So there's a big gap there

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[16:01] I look at that chart and I go, it's going to double in the next year. And you know, gold ain't going to double

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[21:33] we're going to get copper vertical moonshot and it'll it'll come down. It'll go up up to 30,000 and everybody will say it's going to 100,000 and then it'll come back to, you know, 20,000 or 15,000 or something like that.

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[2:37] we're standing on the brink of a supply cliff for copper, okay? It's not like the the era of uh this super cycle is um is not coming. It's it's here. It's here and we better deal with it. And I think we can profit greatly from it. Um we're facing a supply deficit in copper over the next number of years. We're going to have probably a 35% supply deficit by 2035. That's going to be about 8 million tons and about 10 million ton ton supply deficit by 2040.

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[4:12] the copper price starting to move up now. It's it's catching up and but it's it I think it's still has a ways to go because the the physical market is tightening a lot faster than the paper market suggests. So I'm very very bullish on copper.

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[32:55] copper is in tight supply. It's at an all-time high price right now. And it's in very high demand by AI and data centers

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[16:54] the next trade for copper best next big risk is it mean reverts pops down to five and maybe even four. But can it sustain above 650? That would be wonderful if it does because it means the whole system is elevated.

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[2:32] the industry cannot respond even at these higher prices, meaning it's it can only keep going up until it uh that uh creates that response. There's just not enough copper.

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[34:18] this is one that you haven't missed the boat on, right? This is a cycle that will play out over, I think, a decade. It will take a decade to unsolve it, right? Um where the supply demand, you know, kind of the divergence starts starts happening because it takes so long to incentivize new production

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[36:18] So that means we're going to get much higher prices and copper is not cheap now, but we're going to have copper prices over $8 within a few years.

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[25:17] my favorite metal just works higher. It's never had a serious enough correction that you could have sold it and got back in. And that's copper. And all thing all things related to copper now, uh tremendous supply and demand story. Uh even owning copper stocks at this point in time, I would rather own than any technology stock.

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[36:45] I've been bullish on copper for for actually a couple years now it's been my my highest confidence call has been in the copper space but but the opportunity to buy the stocks again the metal is one thing the stocks are another the opportunity to buy the stocks low just hasn't been there in a big way

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[38:23] I love this pair trade idea of copper versus gold for 2026. My one concern is that the supply side has actually gotten even shakier than usual.

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[17:51] the next big bull market could well developing copper and copper stocks.

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[42:00] deficit bullish?

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[34:47] copper has been resiliently uh u you know showing uh a very different behavior that tends to show it tends to lead to the downside in in metals markets like this. And that's not what we're seeing right now. I suspect that this is a stronger sign for if anything for the precious metals side of things... how copper will continue to move higher.

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[26:16] It might be frothy right now, but if I look 2 years out, uh it's cheap.

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[19:15] copper is the most certain of the bull cases out there. It is uh the most if anything could be assured I think that is because we're we're seeing a demand curve for copper like perhaps nothing we've ever seen in any other commodity in modern history and it's running smack dab against uh very severe supply constraints.

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[2:09] there are tremendous opportunities in copper and in junior copper developers around the world because we are heading into a massive scarcity and supply of copper for not just future demand but current demand.

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[15:39] Copper that hasn't done that yet. You know copper is kind of sort of like in that where silver was at 40. And I expect copper to go crazy here. So, it's almost like the best analogy I keep using is it's almost like a a beach ball being held up against inside of the water and you know eventually right now we're seeing that some I don't know a little kid just forcing it down but eventually that thing just keeps going

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[20:49] Copper will be higher in nominal prices and higher in real prices 5 years from now, absent a depression, guaranteed.

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[9:55] right now, we're using more copper than we produce. And you can only use more copper than you produce when you have surplus inventories. We're about 3 years away from being out of inventories.

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[27:59] in my opinion, this could be 12, 18 dollars a pound within a very short time frame.

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[6:37] I expect as an example the copper quote to be flattened down.

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[48:04] Uh copper is something that people have been watching. So, I'll say it's $6 right now. Um And And of course, if the world is electrified, which it's going to be, uh uh copper is the way to do it.

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[28:40] Copper. Bullish two years.

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[21:50] I think minimally there will be $50 billion in new transactions in the next 10 years. Minimally. Uh, and by the way... the nominal number will be much higher 70 or 80 billion.

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[13:13] There is zero doubt that we're going to have lower supplies. We made this argument uh Adam, you and I uh at the end of 2025 around oil... There is zero doubt that copper supplies will fall over five years. You needed to work 15 years ago to increase supply now.

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[8:31] the amount of copper demand that is going to be expressed in the market will not be able to be satisfied at a price that the market is willing to pay. It just isn't possible.

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[17:45] it's a supply demand trade. Copper is in short supply. There are a lot of... it again, it's a a medium-term trade. You're not trading this day by day. You're accumulating it because you know that we need copper for pretty much everything in the industrial sector.

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[24:04] copper can easily go from what is it 620 a pound right now? Um, it could go to say 89 $10 a pound.

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[17:53] Copper stocks, any stocks like aluminum or Alcoa. We've lightened it a little bit. We've had it for 3 years, but aluminum is going to be a bedrock of the data centers... get out of these tech stocks and you should own the First Quantums should own the BHPs, the Rio Tintos.

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[26:30] copper is the metal everything runs through. Uh, and you can't print it or substitute it. So, I'm all in on copper.

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[34:33] this year, I think everybody has flopped. They're saying deficit this year, 400,000 tons this year. Um the entire stockpiles of the world, I think, are like uh a million tons, right? So you can see that already you've just eaten up half of the uh stockpile by the by the end of the year.

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[9:56] we're only in the very very beginning of this this rotation on the equity side that and it's starting to play out right so um I I think that's the dynamic that's going on and really the pool of I think if you look at the valuation of all miners versus the rest of everything. It's like 1% of the total uh capitalization of of market right now. It's a at a historical low. So even as just little things start a couple drips come into it, but it these drips could quickly turn into a to into into a flood

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[31:39] copper probably easily towards $4 a pound if this normal happens. This is the normal reversion.

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[8:32] is is the amount of focus we're we're spending in terms of time and effort in capital into smaller markets that are not as relevant as as things like copper for instance which are likely to be you know a huge problem here in the near future.

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[0:10] we had suggested that copper would be above seven actually by the end of this year dollars per pound. We think that's going to continue already seeing breaks above that.

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[13:54] The margins of gold companies and silver companies is drastically higher today than copper companies. But that's just a function of how much prices of precious metals have run up relative to copper itself. I think I think we're in the process of seeing that shift now where copper companies will also benefit from a better uh profit margin uh which will be historical too in my in my view.

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[13:17] copper to me is probably the best set up uh for for every one of the metals... we're sitting here at all-time highs today. That's why projects like Madison are so important

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[21:35] Copper miners are printing money and are going to continue to print money for years and years. And so we're we we have a big position that's our favorite right now in copper miners.

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[26:24] We have copper by 2030 rising, doubling in price, $28,000 by 2030.

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[9:27] the impact long term for copper is very good. It's, you know, the whole electrification story.

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[24:53] We've had a 50% increase in copper over the last 12 months. That has not really been reflected in the stocks yet. And even with the stocks moving higher... this is maybe just the beginning of of a big copper move.

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[11:27] I do believe silver and copper have already bottom... Its fundamentals have never gotten better than it is now.

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[9:22] Copper, you can't electrify and do all that we want without a lot more copper, but we have a shortage of copper. That's why it's over six bucks. It could easily go 8, 9, 10 dollars over the next couple of years.

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[8:16] The implications are the copper price is going to go a lot higher because you need a lot of copper for these data centers.

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[11:16] So copper is on my above six you showed right there is on my potentially prudent short list because it is stuck.

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[24:07] And and interestingly enough um if you think of copper or even silver, those are almost in in my view over the next 5 years more predictable in the sense that they are you know they're not being produced at the level that we we need them. There's already a shortfall.

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[20:50] If we started looking for copper today, in my experience, as an example, grassroots exploration on a district scale takes a decade to pay off. We're talking about a circumstance where we meaningfully increase supply from frontier areas 15 or 20 years from where we push the start button.

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[18:48] I think that we're going to have to mine more copper over the next 30 years, not 15, 30 years than we've mined in all recorded history.

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[22:45] At the same time that demand is increasing at 2 and a half or 3% compounded a year, production is falling up between one and one and a half% a year. So the gap gets fatter and fatter and fatter.

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[31:03] When we ration by price, I say when, not if, society will find a way to save itself. Money is made by when the whole herd gets attracted to copper at 12 or $15.

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[0:30] sooner or later it's going to really break free

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[32:12] in closing as you said like I'm I'm bullish gold I'm bullish silver. I'm bullish copper as well. All mid to long-term

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[32:54] Robert was telling me that with the projected demand for data centers that we will consume more copper in the next 15 years than we've consumed in the history of humankind.

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[38:43] So, the price is going to gap up at some point into the, you know, when the phase change happens. And so today's price, even though it's an all-time record, is going to seem, you know, pathetically cheap, cheaper than dirt.

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[28:57] copper I think is going to move this year. I think this is going to be the year you really see copper make a material move similar to kind of what gold did or gold started to do back in 2024.

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[28:12] I think copper is about to break out in a big way.

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[2:24] And the next big thing is copper. So, I'm kind of shimmying into copper and and that's done me really well, but I think it's going to it's going to do what silver and gold has done near enough or for that matter platinum and palladium. And of course, it hasn't done that yet. It's made an all-time high, but you know, it's a it's going to be comparatively low, I believe, to where it's actually going to end up in the next six or nine months or a year even or two years.

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[17:14] It'll go 3x in the next two years.

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[15:56] we follow copper and uranium closely and and basically for the same reasons supply demand issue. Uh, there's just not enough supply in the big picture for either metal going forward... when you add all these factors up, we we're very bullish on copper

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[24:46] It's not a problem that's going to be solved by increased supply over the next 5 years. It's going to be solved by higher prices. That's that's how you're going to solve this problem. Much higher prices.

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[0:04] Copper's going to do what silver just did, but it's not done it yet. It's just starting.

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[16:18] Now if I'm wrong, copper won't 5x. If I'm right, it will start to see that kicking off next year and it's going to be a one-way runaway train.

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[19:02] why is copper again my most my my top pick for 2026? It's not because I necessarily think copper will go up more than gold or silver or uranium. It's because I have the highest confidence that it will and that I think it will be substantial.

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[31:36] Copper was my favorite metal. It remains it. I think it's slow but steady higher.

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[33:48] Copper is just going to go at some point like that platinum thing... Copper is going to go nuts. Metals are going to go nuts in the next two or three years.

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[1:35] I was looking by year end to be somewhere between five and 525

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