Chris Whalen Predictions
Institutional Risk Analyst
Track Chris Whalen's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[2:14] He doesn't want to provide uh forward guidance. I also think we may see the dot plots go away.
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[7:35] Do you think we will see the definition of inflation adjusted? Yes. It has to happen, Julia. How else do we get there? You know, if you're Kevin Warsh and you want to minimize rate hikes so you don't tank the economy, well, the only way to do that is to change the definition.
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[9:47] it's going to imply a lower equity market. You know, liquidity is draining out of the market and what this means is that over time people are going to go to more defensive stocks and bonds.
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[14:12] I do think we're going to see the AI bubble, uh, you know, go south. You see it in certain areas like if you watch Bitcoin and and Mike Saylor at Strategy. He's kind of spiraling down.
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[14:18] You see it in certain areas like if you watch Bitcoin and and Mike Saylor at Strategy. He's kind of spiraling down. He was the only significant buyer of Bitcoin over the last few months and that's an indication that liquidity preferences and risk preferences are changing.
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[17:02] both of these metals medium to long-term are going to be great trades. And that's that's basically my thesis.
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[17:02] both of these metals medium to long-term are going to be great trades. And that's that's basically my thesis.
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[17:45] it's a supply demand trade. Copper is in short supply. There are a lot of... it again, it's a a medium-term trade. You're not trading this day by day. You're accumulating it because you know that we need copper for pretty much everything in the industrial sector.
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[21:36] we're already seeing major producers allocating the available uh supplies of these products and that's why I think we're going to see higher prices in the fall.
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[23:51] Well, there's not going to be a cut. No, and and it's unfortunate because so many business executives and and leaders in different industries were banking on a cut. And they're not going to get it.
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[24:38] you're going to see a lot of merger activity in financials, in consumer finance, in auto finance. It's going to be a very interesting year for for those of us who follow financials.
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[10:01] we're still going to see much higher inflation this year. Julia, I haven't changed that prognosis. Double digits still. Yeah, I think so because we're going to see shortages in some really important commodities, things like fertilizer for the farm for example, and that cost is going to get passed through consumers.
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[13:49] I think the Fed is inevitably going to have to pick up the pace of purchases of Treasury securities. They're going to let their mortgage book run off. And I still think there's a good chance that Kevin Worsh is going to swap the mortgage securities that he owns with the Treasury to get Treasury securities
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[31:20] I wouldn't be surprised to see a majority of the committee in favor of a rate hike in July.
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[34:58] We could see three, four new M&A deals in housing announced between now and the end of the year. And I mean big deals. Top 10 lenders merging.
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