Financial Sector Predictions

[22:20] But yeah, I do think the US banks are safe.

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[28:51] that would be a great excuse to get very bearish on banks um from here and and and might be a major impediment to owning them for the very long hall. But at the same time banks are pretty important to you know governments and sovereigns around the world um who increasingly you know need to fund their deficits. And you know I I think that we'll see a lot of you know regulation designed to protect the deposit franchises of banks over time

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[27:43] the financial sector something's going on there guys and technically we're in a position on so many of the major banks right now talking of momentum now long-term momentum that if you're trading where you are right now with a day left in the quarter and you next quarter you're stay at these same price levels. You do not want to close a month around where you are right now. You better get out of here. And if you don't, you're going to blow momentum structure that says, 'I'm in a vacuum to the downside.'

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[1:00] Yeah, one of the areas that we did make some tact tactical changes is in the financials. The financials are coming under pressure. you know when you start to compress the yield curve you know that that becomes a a difficult situation for many financials. So you you have seen the XLF you know breath deteriorate you know I posted on X you know the charts of Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Bank of New York um all of them are breaking up trends.

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[3:41] there's a gentleman in the chat who was pounding the table bull on the financials like last two years. um he was long a lot of the XLF names and um and he made his clients about a billion dollars during the subprime crisis, but he's been a raging bull and now he's turned much more bearish. Bearish on Bank America, bearish on Goldman, uh bearish on the financials as a whole.

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[13:59] Technically, they are at levels this week that if we close out today about where we are now, they break through some intermediate momentum structures... You're well below that right now. They're going to break it this week, the banks.

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[8:17] Um well, I've been long it for I think since our last podcast. I just our our algorithm picked it up. It was bullish trend. It had some major support levels. So we see has medium support at 98.54, has more medium support at 95.53 and not a ton of overhead resistance. So, I'd like to see it not double top here at that like 108 level.

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[33:05] we uh maintained our overweight on financials and industrials as the sectors most likely to benefit from all this spending.

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[31:26] those sectors are financials, banks, uh we made a call about a month ago on insurance related names... I I think that the banks, especially the ones outside the country, European banks went from negative interest rates to positive. They've been outperforming for almost four and a half, 5 years.

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[35:38] the regional banks have done really well this year, but they still look pretty cheap to me. So, I don't think people fully appreciate how much this regulatory regime and steeping of the steepening of the yield curve will mean for their profitability. So, that's another one where I still think, yeah, okay, it's moved a bit, but there's a lot more um in the offing for these companies.

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[24:38] you're going to see a lot of merger activity in financials, in consumer finance, in auto finance. It's going to be a very interesting year for for those of us who follow financials.

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[7:08] the banks will compete with stablecoins. They're going to have to start giving you a yield to compete with you and it's going to all work out just fine.

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[5:30] It's it's going to be a bank run. Um, you know, on the US banking system, US consumers have never had a choice of uh, you know, what currency to hold.

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[3:37] So I'm pretty bullish on the financials uh in in the US economy. I think they're relatively well protected from some of the downside scenarios, but they're still inexpensive unlike some of the the highest quality tech stocks that are out there.

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[14:21] You can argue that financials in general look particularly interesting. Again, goes back to deregulation benefiting that part of the equity landscape.

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