Rupert Mitchell Predictions
Author, The Blind Squirrel / Macro Investor
Track Rupert Mitchell's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[1:32] in the last couple of weeks for the first time in god knows how long I can remember I have started to add some exposure in shorter duration um treasuries so two-year notes specifically
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[2:52] I don't think Kevin Walsh has as many hikes in his armory um as the short-term interest rate markets expect. Um I think there's so so many parts of um the economy that can't support higher higher frontend rates. Um and I think they'll make themselves heard quite soon.
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[7:05] I'd be really surprised phased if what's being priced in interest rates futures markets, you know, another three three or more cuts over the next 12 to 18 months. I'd be very surprised if that plays out.
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[4:21] I think that that that that ultimately bond yields will come down.
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[7:57] most pockets of the US equity markets feel very expensive for me and feel um you know especially expensive if we if we are looking at a higher interest rates environment right now. Um, if you think at think about the S&P right now, you know, over half of the index by market cap is trading above 10 times sales, price to sales. You know, over any time frame in history, you know, that is a tough starting point from which you can expect decent positive IRRs over a 3, five, 10 year time spectrum.
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[8:53] I think we would need several years of underperformance versus the rest of the world um before a lot of those dollars would leave your shores. um which leads me to believe that there'll be some some some forced rotation within markets away from those 10 times price to sales players you know into the broader index
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[9:07] my favorite expression within US equities right now is to be long the equal weight the RSP versus the triple Q's right
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[11:43] I I still have a core allocation to gold. I see gold much higher under most circumstances over over over the balance of of the decade and beyond. Um but I think that tactically um you know it's a case of more sellers than buyers
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[13:23] ultimately which is why I think that you know the dip in gold is temporary because ultimately I think people will work out that they can turn gold into energy and and and and you know sovereign resilience commodities probably easier than they can sell a treasury.
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[17:23] energy equities look incredibly attractive over the long term to underwrite because you know capex around exploration can be underwritten if there's an effective high 70s early 80s floor around the crude price... I think that that that that weight's going a lot higher, right? And, you know, I don't own a lot of US equities at the moment in in my portfolio, but over half of them are energy stocks or energy related stocks.
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[26:07] I found one, by the way. I I think that there is a ch back there. You know, it's it's it's it's a it's a stock and and I'm talking about Glenor now, not not financial advice. It's a it's a it's my largest personal position, but it's a stop that I think works in a fragmented geopolitical world. It's a fantastic copper story backed up by a seaborn coal story which I think stands stands the test of time
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[22:54] if I had a gun to my head, I think we're on a path of economic deglobalization right now that's accelerated in the last two years. And my base case for an underwrite is that that is a trend of reshoring and nearshoring which is by the way extremely inflationary um to my mind
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[28:51] that would be a great excuse to get very bearish on banks um from here and and and might be a major impediment to owning them for the very long hall. But at the same time banks are pretty important to you know governments and sovereigns around the world um who increasingly you know need to fund their deficits. And you know I I think that we'll see a lot of you know regulation designed to protect the deposit franchises of banks over time
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