David Nicoski Predictions
CIO of Vermilion Research
Track David Nicoski's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[1:08] I I think the magnitude of the concentration risk that you're getting out of tech um may may end up coming short of expectations. And I I think it's it's very important to realize that everything everyone sold to get into the tech trade is now outperforming for the last, you know, four to five weeks.
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[8:51] I I think you're going to look for support at the 200 day moving average. Many names bounced off the 200 day moving average here more recently. Um you know that's where it should find support.
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[17:49] the dollar is breaking an uptrend. We just fell through some support levels right at the 100 101 level. So I I would want to see us retake that.
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[24:13] There's tech stocks that are down 50%. You know, I don't think we're going to see $40 oil.
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[24:35] I I think bond yields are going to move higher. And and and if the only way I think you get bond yields moving lower is an a lower equity market to force people into bonds. And we're not getting that at this point.
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[31:26] those sectors are financials, banks, uh we made a call about a month ago on insurance related names... I I think that the banks, especially the ones outside the country, European banks went from negative interest rates to positive. They've been outperforming for almost four and a half, 5 years.
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[33:10] when you get down into healthcare, I'm seeing IHI, uh, it's it's a group that I highlighted in the slides. You're seeing, you know, Medronic, Abbott, Baxter, you know, start to outperform here in the last month and a half. And I I think that's going to continue as as funds start to move down their tech waiting.
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[34:14] right now gold is at an interesting uh area. In March, I I indicated that gold uh the 200 day was at 4,100. I think we hit 4103 that day. um it reversed, had a substantial move up and not to new highs, but came back and we're sitting at that horizontal support level right around the 4,100 level. So, I'm watching that, you know, um with enthusiasm because I I think if the dollar were to weaken here, we're going to we're going to see some move in the precious metal... we may be building a bottom there from what I see.
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