David Hay Predictions
Former Co-CIO of Evergreen Gavacol, Founder of Haymaker Publications
Track David Hay's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[12:20] I think the bull story with with oil is that we're probably going to be in this range where oil at the low end is in the say 70 range. You know, maybe it's going to be a while before we get there. I think uh given the shortage that's uh that's amassed and this latest reality check, but you know, at the upper end, we probably are going to see, you know, 100 tough to penetrate other than maybe on a short-term basis.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[18:55] I still a lot of contracts left because I I do believe we could get, you know, a a blowoff top in oil that is not unlike what we saw with gold and silver at the beginning of the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[7:36] Now, where I think that there's still a lot more upside is with the energy equities.
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[22:22] This is EOG, which is one of the premier oil and gas producers in the United States. It's also a takeover candidate, though you never bet on that. That would be a kicker. But, you know, I I love to look at multi-year breakouts. And admittedly, this one hasn't happened yet, but I think it will. And when it does, it it likely is to going to run a bit more.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[23:08] the US gas and the $3 per MMBTU million British thermal units per thousand BCF is just ridiculously cheap. Around the world, you've got it now pushing over 20 because there is uh and we've got a a visual coming up about the gas shortage in Europe. Their gas storage has just fallen off the cliff. They've been talking about complacency about energy. Europe is really guilty of this. I think they're going to pay a severe price this winter over there. So I really like US natural gas, US natural gas producers which are also very cheap.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[23:42] Europe is really guilty of this. I think they're going to pay a severe price this winter over there.
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[26:06] I do. It probably won't be as dramatic because I don't think the the negativity is as great on oil, but it as on uranium was on oil, but it's certainly neglected. And the I think the supply demand setup with uranium is even better than oil.
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[28:58] this my point is with SRUF right now you're getting a discount upon a discount. So really kind of a 20% discount for where from where most uranium is trading currently.
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[22:07] So, I think you're going to see another spike in coal prices coming up.
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[31:04] a lot of people think we will and, you know, could have big losses because you you look at these price charts for these major bond markets around the world, they look sick... we're going from five to six on the long-term Treasury
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[4:02] we've been warning particularly in the last couple of weeks that the US stock market was looking a little precarious, at least on a near-term basis with very poor breadth.
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[23:54] energy is just not in favor. It's it's just like it's like this crisis isn't happening. These things are priced like they were, you know, for the most part over the last few years when it was when energy we had really no really no catalyst. So that's why I think there's such great opportunity.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[19:07] Well I I the damn six months for I doubt it the next six months.
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[7:41] I think the Chinese market is quite interesting. It could be one of the better performers.
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[5:47] I believe gold and silver are still in long-term uptrends
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[27:52] I don't think the Fed's going to cut much. I think that's a bit of a contrary opinion right now.
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[23:52] we think there is further to go for silver and and probably for gold
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed silver would 'continue to rise further' with bullish sentiment. The period high of $79.7 (reached on 2025-12-29) represents a 69.3% increase from the prediction date price of $41.43, confirming that silver did indeed rise substantially during the prediction window, validating the bullish claim.
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[35:40] this looks like a pretty important break. So, this is we we think threeyear uh either support or resistance is important. This is 5 years. The longer it is, the more important it is. Uh so this is I think a sign that the dollar is in a structural downtrend
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 'structural downtrend' with a bearish sentiment, but the dollar actually rallied 3.1% from the prediction date ($97.45) to the period high ($100.4), demonstrating an uptrend rather than a downtrend during the prediction window.
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[3:55] I'd say yes and yes. I mean again I think the first quarter was flattered and the fact that it was import surging. I mean we're hearing these stats I'm sure you are too of ships that are you know leaving China 50 60% empty and that there's a very real possibility of almost co-like supply chain glitches and dislocations coming up.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[9:27] I think at this point it favors a recession. Now things are obviously very fluid and we've got a president who's extremely mercurial and who knows what he's going to say tomorrow. I think the problem that he's got is he's created tremendous uncertainty. And when businesses and individuals are uncertain about the future, when they're uh when they're confused, what do they tend to do? They tend to sit on their hands. They don't spend as much.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[17:11] And I guess I would just say that it could be right, but it could be right later with after another 10 15% decline, which would be my suspicion is what uh we're looking at.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 10-15% decline would occur, but the period low of $5578.64 represents only a 1.27% decline from the prediction date price of $5650.38, falling far short of the claimed 10-15% magnitude.
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[23:13] So I think well they are likely to correct. In fact, they have corrected which is something that we wrote about here a few weeks ago. But I think it's going to be a relatively shallow and contained correction for the gold miners and then they'll be up again.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold miners would have a 'shallow and contained correction' followed by resuming their upward trend. GDX declined only 7.4% from $48.37 to $44.77 (a shallow correction), and GDXJ declined only 6.0% from $59.69 to $56.11, both qualifying as shallow corrections, and both subsequently resumed strong uptrends reaching 32.5% and 35.4% gains respectively by the target date, exactly matching the prediction's claims.
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[25:31] So I think silver has a lot further to go in this bull market for precious metals.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed silver would 'continue rising significantly' in a bull market, and the period high of $79.70 represents a 147.4% gain from the prediction date price of $32.21, far exceeding any reasonable interpretation of 'significant' rise, making this prediction correct.
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[34:37] I was very bullish on the yen I thought the yen was a great fragile non-fragile asset and it has it's up 10% this year with a lot of things down. I still think it's going higher. It's correcting a little bit and you know maybe wait it for it to back off a bit more but I think that it's going to go from say 143 to the dollar to 120 maybe even eventually close to 100 to the dollar which would be a big appreciation.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Graded early 2026-03-22. Yen weakened instead of strengthening: USD/JPY went from 144.62 at prediction to 149.33, away from the 120 target. Period low was 142.13 — never approached 120. Would need a ~20% move in 43 days, essentially impossible for a major currency pair.
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[34:59] I'm particularly bullish on uranium. Uranium has been hit very hard and it's non-yclical. I mean really the demand for uranium has nothing to do with the global economy or the US economy. There's there's just enormous numbers of new facilities, new nuclear facilities. Three more just announced in Poland. Uh China just announced another 10. So that you've got demand increasing rapidly for uranium and the supply is very constrained.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed uranium would 'rise significantly' due to increasing demand and constrained supply; the period high of $20.5 represents a 35.1% gain from the prediction date price of $15.17, which clearly demonstrates a significant rise and validates the bullish thesis, and the price closed at $19.47 (28.3% gain) by the target date.