Treasury Market Predictions
Browse Treasury Market market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
See quote
[7:54] I think the next few few months inflation will go higher, at least the way we see it. So, there's the bonds will probably be under more pressure in our opinion.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[5:33] sovereign bonds particularly long-term sovereign bonds have stopped being the reserve asset the safe haven that gave you a cushion of return in an environment of weakness that the 6040 portfolio used to provide. You need to look elsewhere for that 40% uh out of out of equities.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[19:21] I think bonds will be a good place to be. You're not going to make a killing, but I think that uh you'll do fine.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[28:29] Now since since that chart we've dropped down to 112 area. you get down around 111 in price, which is that upper chart there. You can see it's probed down to 10750 back in 2023, but then there were two lows down just in the 111 since then that almost got to 110. You go back down to the 111 again, you're not going to hold. Okay? And I think you could get a mini panic.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[14:56] So I would say bonds would are more likely to suffer than any other asset class out there.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[35:52] The risk you should be concerned about right now is not recession, depression, interest rates going down. Owning bonds, having 40% of your portfolio in bonds does not hedge you against that risk.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[24:12] We see one of the largest ever short positioning in TLT in history. Well, I'd be long fixed income.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[32:34] And I think that you're going to find that the much maligned, ignored, despised treasury market is going to be the one market that is going to be delivering equity-like returns over the next 12 months.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
See quote
[16:08] I think the only area to really be in you know likely is the area which everybody hates which again is treasuries and probably more on the long duration side. Everyone suddenly forgot that the pristine asset long duration treasuries tends to act like the best place to be when everything falls apart.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed long duration treasuries (TLT) would be 'the best performing asset class' during market stress, but TLT declined 2.3% over the period and hit a low of $80.30, failing to demonstrate outperformance as a 'pristine asset' that 'tends to act like the best place to be when everything falls apart'—the specific claim was not met.