David Woo Predictions
CEO and founder of David Woo Unbound
Track David Woo's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:00] they would love to see a $100 $120 basically Brent right now that would really like and push the US stock market down 10% that force Trump to basically tackle
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:00] they would love to see a $100 $120 basically Brent right now that would really like and push the US stock market down 10%
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[4:46] if they do that, that's bullish oil and that's bearish for the stock market. I think that's probably for me that's a that's a that's a big focus for this week anyway.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction is conditional ('if they do that') and claims oil will be bullish this week. The period high was $94.81 on day 3 (a +4.2% rise from $91.02), suggesting some bullish movement mid-week, but the target date close was $86.01 (-5.5%), and the period ended at the low of $85.85. The prediction doesn't specify a magnitude, just 'bullish,' and while there was a brief rally to $94.81, the overall week was bearish. However, the grade depends on whether 'bullish this week' means any upward move occurred or whether the week ended higher — the period high did show a meaningful rally, but the overall trend was down.
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[4:46] if they do that, that's bullish oil and that's bearish for the stock market. And I think that's probably for me that's a that's a that's a big focus for this week anyway.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed bearish stock market in the near term if sanctions were imposed; the S&P 500 fell from $7691.76 to a period low of $7638.17 (-0.7%) and closed down -0.2% by the target date, showing a modest bearish move consistent with the directional claim, though no specific magnitude was claimed.
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[7:17] there are a lot of people especially non-Americans who think that this is a moment to sell the crap out of the US dollar because they think that you know that this strategic defeat is inevitable and that this is going to be bullish gold and very bearish for the US dollar and then you know it's difficult to disagree with
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[7:17] there are a lot of people especially non-Americans who think that this is a moment to sell the crap out of the US dollar because they think that you know that this strategic defeat is inevitable and that this is going to be bullish gold and very bearish for the US dollar and then you know it's difficult to disagree with
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[19:37] I actually think that this is actually an interesting trade. I think defense might actually do pretty well actually in the next couple of months
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[16:39] between now and the Russian election, which is coming up next month, okay, you're probably going to see the Russians taking another big swath of Ukraine. And then between the election and November, which will be the deadline for fighting conditions still basically allow them to go on. I think they're going to probably make a run for corators in Slovenians.
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[20:40] the most important election in Europe next year, of course, is the French presidential election. And right now, my money is on Marin Le Pen
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[21:52] I think in the short term is very very negative for Europe because number one you've got you got the fact that right now I mean last week alone European natural gas price went up 10%... natural gas storage is already inventories at the lowest level I don't know in 10 years and then we're not even winter yet obviously we're going to see what happens there so natural gas prices going up
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[22:51] there is a very good chance of a break up of a real trade war between Europe and China this fall. Right now, they are in they have given each other ultimatum. They started last month basically a three-month final ultimate negotiation basically to see if they can actually find a compromise before they just go down this slippery slope
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[24:31] I'm long oil because I do think I I I I find it difficult to see how this thing is going to end. Okay. And that's just how it is.
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[24:55] I think bonds are very very cheap. Like, if I look at five-year yields, I mean, given everything's going on, do I really believe the Fed is going to be hiking rates? I mean, like, so I mean, I don't see any inflation and I think growth is actually slowing. So like I I kind of feel like being loan bonds at least
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[25:14] I'm I'm right now I've been short the Japanese yen over the last two weeks. Ever since they started intervening, I said, 'Well, you know, if Besson wants to buy the Japanese yen, I'm going to go in and sell some.' And so far, it's worked out... I think the yen is doomed.
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[24:22] my fundamental view is that I want to I want to short AI you know I'm just not short at this moment but I will be looking for better levels to basically go in there and whack the market
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[23:17] Yeah that's going to unwind later this year. Is that your thesis? I I I think I think absolutely.
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[30:02] I think oil will start heading higher in about a week's time and I'll explain to you what I mean by that because in a week's time we will be after both July 4th as well as the funeral
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Oil started heading higher within the predicted window: from $68.55 on July 3, the price rose to a period high of $76.08 on July 8 (trading day 2), a gain of ~11%, clearly confirming the bullish prediction that oil would start heading higher within about a week.
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[33:50] Poly market right now is giving only a less than 20% chance that Iran is going to walk away from theou negotiation. I would give before the end of July. I would say the odds are at least double that, if not triple.
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Iran suspended its commitments under the MOU on July 18, 2026, and by July 27 Iran's Foreign Ministry declared there were no talks underway with the US — confirming Iran did walk away from the MOU negotiations before the end of July, as predicted. (https://www.britannica.com/event/2026-Iran-war)
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[5:27] I think anytime you can you get a chance to buy gold around $4,000, you know, an ounce, I think that's attractive because I think what it's telling you right now is that, you know, uh, you know, some very long-term goal holders have been forced to sell.
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[36:07] I guarantee you the Republicans are going to get wiped out, okay? In November. I don't care about the rest red redistricting. I think that things the way things are going right now. The Republicans going to lose their majority definitely in the House if not in the Senate.
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[1:28] I think that, you know, I think the way I see it and I think, you know, I I probably was among the first, if not the first, and I still haven't changed my mind, which is that actually the I'm very much of the view that this conflict is going to get uglier before it ends.
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[7:23] I would be very very surprised if there's going to be a major breakthrough this week.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Trump-Xi summit (May 12–15, 2026) produced some trade commitments (Boeing aircraft, agricultural purchases, new trade boards), but expert analysis from CFR, Brookings, Atlantic Council, and CSIS consistently described the visit as lacking major breakthroughs — 'thin on substance,' 'big show with little to show for it,' and 'few specific public commitments.' The prediction that there would be no major breakthrough was correct. (https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/fastthinking/what-did-trump-and-xi-accomplish/)
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[12:37] even if there's no resumed finding, you're going to see basically this war taking a big knock on the global economy to the extent that oil prices will probably be sharply higher. So, this is the this is why actually, ironically, you know what?
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed oil prices would be 'sharply higher' by around June 2026, but the price fell from $101.02 to $69.94 (-30.8%) by the target date, and even the period high of $109.47 represents only a ~8.4% rise which occurred briefly before collapsing dramatically.
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[11:58] I just actually sold some DAX this morning by the way and I'll tell you why. my my my argument here which is first of all I think the war okay whether you think there's going to be resumed fighting or not which I think there will be
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[0:05] If you look at Holly market, it's pricing a 65% chance there will be a permanent peace deal between the US and and and and Iran by the end of May. I mean, to me that's a laughable notion.
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[25:20] My base case is that he loses the House. Okay. That they they they they hang on to the Senate but barely.
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[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically T.A.C.O..
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The prediction claimed the market would go down, but ^GSPC rose 9.1% by target date with the period low only reaching about -6.9% before recovering to new highs.
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[30:06] I'll be very very surprised if gold gets below 4,000. Okay that that that's my view
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[32:14] I think it's probably closer to 50,000. So, I will be looking to take profit on my short Bitcoin position probably around 55.
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[40:14] sell NASDAQ. Okay. I'm long NAS I'm short NASDAQ
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[40:17] long Nifty50. I love the India story. I think India is an amazing story. It's the fastest growing economy in the world.
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[4:08] I think it's safe to assume that next year at this time inflation will be quite a bit lower than where it is now.
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[18:52] if NASDAQ goes down 20% or more, which is my forecast, I mean, you know, the US will go into a recession and Trump is just going to basically kiss his whatever, you know, the midterm good night and goodbye.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The period low was $20690.25, which represents a decline of only 8.9% from the prediction date price of $22708.07, falling well short of the claimed 20% decline threshold.
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[19:30] certainly I think over the next three months, I think there's a very good chance that it Yeah, I think I I think NASDAQ would be hitting heading heading much lower.
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The prediction claimed NASDAQ would head 'much lower' over three months; however, the period low of $21898.29 represents only a -3.6% decline from the prediction price of $22708.07, and the price recovered to -0.7% by the target date, which does not constitute a significant 'much lower' move given the subsequent rally to $23988.27 (up 5.6%) during the period.
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[38:34] I think India is actually looks to me you know to be a a winner in 2026.
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