Jan van Eck Predictions
CEO of VanEck
Track Jan van Eck's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[8:07] I'm still bullish on a lot of things. But I I want to explain myself and and that's why I'll get to the to the slide deck if that makes sense.
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[13:39] demand for compute is still going up. We don't even know, but let's say five or six times a year and and supply is just not staying not not not keeping up. And so, the question at some point it will and every time I talk to investors they're like, you know, when do you think that'll happen? It doesn't seem like it's happening anytime soon. But let's just say that we don't know when it's going to happen. It seems to us a ways out. That's why I think you just have to stay fully invested.
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[15:47] I'm a I'm a little worried um about them. And then the last one is just what I would call that the software companies. And I think they don't have a moat is I guess my point. Most of their profits, Adam, uh to your to your point, actually just come because they jacked up prices. They're not even increased volumes that much.
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[25:17] the valuations of the top 10, you may not see the numbers, are almost the same as their um as the their average over this time period. So, the average is about 20.8 times forward earnings, and they're about 21.6 times. So, there's not a some kind of valuation distortion, Adam, and that's why I think we can be, you know, really comfortable um just riding this wave.
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[29:20] Uh, absolutely. Um, and and in prior quarters, right? We've talked about the AI, what we call the AI 2.0 trade. Mhm. You need the old world, uh, to supply the new world and, um, I don't think I included the price of copper in here, but, uh, that's just that's just one example and I and I think it's sustainable that that kind of demand, um, and and shortage because this CapEx build out is, uh, is really tremendous
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[36:51] Well, let me let me tell you who I think is a little bit too hot. Um, and and that's um Anthropic. So, Anthropic has uh, you know, Claude and I think there are some It's sort of I think the emperor is naked here a little bit. Um, so, uh, Anthropic is facing these headwinds. Number one, yes, corporations are spending on AI, but they're they're they're cost-conscious consumers. So, they're trying to cut their costs. Number one. Number two, is there's a lot of competition in the model space. Number three, you now have people in the industry and in the government saying they're not to be trusted
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[6:12] you're going to have big capex for 26 and 27 for sure and I think the reason Nvidia is so cheap is that people are like yeah but then it's going roll over um in and 28 and we just we just think this trend is so big. We just think that's very implausible. Um so we think these lines continue to go up.
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[3:34] Our social security system in 2033 will cut payments. So, let's call it go bankrupt in 2033
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[5:36] at current growth rates they will be as big as Europe in about 10 continental Europe in 10 years
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[7:42] Bitcoin and gold will both in secular appreciation uh cycles
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would be in a 'secular appreciation cycle,' which is a bullish directional claim. Gold increased 29.1% from the prediction date ($3350.7) to the target date ($4325.6), and the period high reached $4556.3, demonstrating sustained appreciation throughout the period rather than a decline that would contradict the secular appreciation thesis.
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[18:03] wealthy individuals in the US in other words have about 2% of their assets in private credit and private equity and people are really projecting that to grow to maybe 10%
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[24:35] I tilt slightly bullish on this argument
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bullish on nuclear energy stocks benefiting from regulatory enablement, and NLR reached a period high of $164.03 (72.3% gain from the $95.24 prediction price), far exceeding any reasonable bullish expectation and confirming the predicted positive direction during the prediction window.
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[28:15] Bitcoin
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The prediction claimed Bitcoin would be 'the best performing asset for the remainder of 2025,' but Bitcoin declined 13.8% from the prediction date ($101,575.95) to the target date ($87,508.83), making it a poor performer rather than the best performing asset during this period.