Florian Grummes Predictions
Managing Director of Midas Touch Consulting
Track Florian Grummes's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[3:43] Usually and statistically the the stock markets have a rather difficult time until this election because it creates a lot of uncertainty. We're seeing the bond prices rising. We've seen the yields rising and um precious metals have sold off to the beginning of this week. Uh my thinking is still that probably after the midterm elections things will calm down a little bit and we might get a good end of the year rally in the stock market maybe
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[27:51] I think maybe it takes another year until this correction is is done. Um so people need to be patient.
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[36:33] starting mid December into the first quarter, it's the best time for the mining stocks. you need to be positioned by the end of the year basically or let's say mid December latest um to catch that typically very strong leg up that you will see in the miners.
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[10:54] The big producers are looking very good. I mean many of them breaking out to new highs. It's a clear trend up. Uh I I for me it's a stronghold at least. I'm not sure if I would add to positions here at these levels. Probably not. But um anybody who's invested should just let uh their winnings run. You know, that's uh it's it's an uptrend. I don't see how they going to turn this around anytime soon. Um so yeah, I think uh there's more upside for the oil stocks.
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[18:30] I don't think that this trend is over anytime soon uh because we had 40 42 years of uh falling yields and now we are in the six years of rising yields. So even if it would be just a retracement on that 40 year uh downtrend uh uh this could easily take uh 10 years maybe 12 to 15 years even. So, I think we're still right in there, and I think we're going to see double digit uh yields at some point down the road.
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[8:42] The second target I have been writing about this for the last few weeks again and again. The second target for that recovery for that bounce uh is the 200 day moving average at 4,490ish. So roughly speaking 4,500 has been my target for the summer and it's still active and it looks like we're marching there.
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The prediction claimed gold would reach ~$4,500 by end of August/September 2026, and the period high was $4,755.0 on August 25, 2026 (trading day 14), which clearly exceeded the $4,500 target within the prediction window.
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[27:18] I don't see new all-time highs this year. Um, so I think this correction still needs more time.
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[10:28] I have a target for silver here for the summer at $70. Uh I think that's realistic. We touched the 50-day moving average today around 63. I think the high today was 6277. So um yeah, I think it's also the breakout here out of this sideways range uh this bottom building. Uh uh so I think it's bullish in the short term over maybe the next ideally we we have a few weeks maybe one to three months for that that nice bounce and rally
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[16:35] I think M&A activities will start to to ramp up over the next uh weeks, months, probably one to three years as you know the big producers making huge amounts of cash at even 4,000 gold and they need to and will redeploy that money and of course and they go into the junior sector and we haven't seen any M&A activity or crazy M&A activity yet in that bull run or in that bull market. So I think that's probably coming
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[25:14] back above 5,000. It could take actually maybe the rest of this year, maybe even into next year before we see that number again.
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[33:00] I would be surprised if it breaks strongly below $50 here. Um I think we are in a new price range now. We have broken out above $50... until then silver probably will rather remain a little bit muted while gold needs to move higher and and make the first steps in into a new bull market territory but I think it will take some time
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[39:25] I mentioned the semiconductor index before it it went parabolic that's never a good sign whether the silver price goes parabolic or the semiconductors or bitcoin at some point yeah it it comes comes down hard and um and that seems to happening now with the semiconductors many of the old school tech uh stocks are already down heavily over the last few months um I'm a bit cautious here
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[16:51] I think we're moving here into a stackflation scenario. uh persistent inflation especially due to um these these high oil prices the ongoing war the high level of uncertainty the the the international war for commodities which the European zone doesn't have too much of and at the same time continuing the the to expand the money supply yeah that's creating stackflation
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[6:04] I think latest latest by late summer, early autumn, we will get uh a severe oil price shock where the shortages are really so uh uh uh intense that that uh people who need the physical oil are willing to pay much higher prices.
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[11:04] I think over the next few days weeks latest let's say two 3 months maybe I think we're going to see another oil spike spike. Yes.
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The prediction called for an oil spike within 2-3 months from June 2026. Starting at $87.71, the period high reached $104.44 on the target date (trading day 62), representing an 19.1% increase, which clearly qualifies as a sharp spike. The word 'spike' is vague but an 18-19% move within the window is unambiguously bullish and constitutes a significant spike.
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[8:26] I think oil stocks are still uh uh uh uh undervalued and a good investment opportunity here.
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[16:54] I think that the the the AI bubble and uh is is is about to burst here. I think that um the the the this parabolic rise in the semiconductors over the last basically 12 months is not healthy anymore. It's dangerous. We have seen the first cracks now last week.
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[17:16] I have a potential head and shoulder topping pattern activated since yesterday. Um, we are seeing the largest IPO ever, SpaceX and Wall Street has changed all the rules to make sure that now retail can benefit because the institutionals apparently are not uh having enough interest anymore... I think stock market totally overvalued.
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[24:36] America cannot lower interest rates anytime soon. They probably will have to actually raise it because inflation inflation is going up.
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[32:06] we are in a correction right now in the metals. Once that is over I think you're going to see the next leg up which will bring new all-time highs and even and an even stronger bull market because this whole devaluation of fiat currencies is not over.
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[41:44] in the short term I think you're going to see more pain in silver... if we're going to see that pullback towards this $50 former resistance now support that's a pullback of uh I think more than what is it 70% or something from the new all-time high
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[41:30] so I'm I'm very bullish for silver from an industrial perspective and also from a precious metal precious metals perspective. But when I say very bullish that means in the long term over the next let's say 5 to 10 years.
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[9:08] going forward I think commodities will outperform uh stocks uh over the next probably 5 years at least.
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[9:48] one of the takeaways in my big picture macro analysis is that we're going to see the next leg up in inflation
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[6:47] in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going
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[25:57] I think gold now is on the way back to probably the 50-day moving average, maybe slightly above 5,000
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The prediction claimed gold would reach slightly above $5,000, but the period high was only $4,879.7 on April 17, which falls short of the $5,000 target.
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[24:28] I wouldn't be surprised if gold actually would want to come back down here maybe below yeah maybe below $4,000 at some point. maybe testing this whole uh uh support that the the top from last year April 3,500
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[29:32] it usually always ends with a total um uh panic sell off at the end of a crypto winter. We haven't seen that yet.
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