Jim Welsh Predictions
Founder and author of Macro Tides
Track Jim Welsh's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[5:03] I think we're setting up for a pullback of 4 to 7% in coming weeks. In other words, you got five up, you're going to see a retracement rally or a retracement pullback of that rally.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[5:15] Beyond that, I think there's going to be another leg higher.
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[19:32] there's a decent probability we're going to see SMH roll over again and take out the recent low at 503.
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[20:37] the weakness of the breath on this thrust makes me believe that this pattern is correct and that suggests that we're nearing the end of the rally from the March 30th. I'm not looking for the sky to fall or anything like that. I just think the probability of a 4 to 7% pullback in the overall market is developing.
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[22:41] we're likely to see a near-term high in in the next handful of days.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction called for a near-term high within a handful of days from August 7, 2026. The period high of $7816.70 was reached on August 13 (trading day 4), which is higher than the prediction date price of $7757.64, confirming that a near-term high was indeed reached within the specified timeframe.
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[12:54] I believe we're in a long-term uh trend higher for Treasury yields. And I believe we'll see the 10-year above 5%. That was the high in October of 23.
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[11:41] We're going to see the CPI come in next week and it's going to tick higher.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The July 2026 CPI rose 0.1% month-over-month (seasonally adjusted), up from a -0.4% decline in June, meaning it did 'tick higher' on a monthly basis. However, the annual rate fell slightly from 3.5% to 3.4%, so the directional call on monthly change was correct. (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm)
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[11:03] I lean toward them hiking because at some point in time you can talk tough about inflation as Wars has done but you need to act... I lean in favour of them hiking in September.
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[27:52] I think we're getting close to a near-term high in gold. We'll see a pullback and then I think we're going to see another thrust that takes us up to the higher targets.
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[27:04] this is a retracement rally with gold uh that this isn't the beginning of the move above 6,000. It's a retracement move within wave 4... there'll be a Cwave that takes gold below 3945.
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[29:33] I think there's a potential of GDX making it to 102 and even potentially to a new all-time high above 117. If gold reaches those targets I'm talking about 45 to 4700, I think GDX can make it up there.
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[29:52] I think we're nearing a short-term high in GDX in part. Also, I think the dollar index may have completed its correction today. So, you know what that implies to me, David, is we're close to seeing a rebound rally in the dollar index and that will, I think, just take give people a reason to take some money off the table in both gold and gold stocks.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bearish, claiming GDX was near a short-term high and would pull back as the dollar rebounded. Instead, GDX rose from $89.89 to a period high of $105.67 (up ~17.6%), with the target date close at $103.69 (up 15.4%), clearly moving in the opposite direction of the bearish prediction.
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[30:02] I think the dollar index may have completed its correction today. So, you know what that implies to me, David, is we're close to seeing a rebound rally in the dollar index
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[33:03] I have low confidence. Uh in this week's weekly technical review... I certainly don't believe that they're, you know, you have the hardliners in Iran that I don't think are going to agree to anything less than them controlling the strait. Um therefore seeing a peaceful resolution I think is unlikely.
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[15:16] it'll take a miracle for the Republicans not to lose the House
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[19:50] That next push higher will take the dollar above 10050
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[19:26] I think that gold is going to go down again uh in coming weeks
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would decline in coming weeks; from the prediction date price of $4656.8, the period low reached $4515.7 (a decline of ~3%), and the target date close was $4629.9 (-0.6%), both showing a decline occurred, making the bearish directional prediction correct.
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[28:36] I think there's a chance that it'll dip below 4100
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[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a pullback could occur in the S&P 500 due to AI stock weakness, and the period low of $6473.52 (trading day 43) represents a -6.7% decline from the prediction date price of $6940.01, confirming that a pullback did indeed occur during the target window.
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[5:47] I think the Russell 2000 is going to continue to work its way higher.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was bullish ('continue to work its way higher') and the Russell 2000 rose 11.1% by the target date, with a period high of $3046.59 (up ~13.8% from the prediction price), clearly confirming upward movement despite an interim dip.
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[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed any decline should be limited to 3-7%. The period low was $6,316.91, representing a decline of ($6940.01 - $6316.91) / $6940.01 = 8.97% from the prediction date price, which exceeds the predicted maximum decline of 7%, making the prediction wrong.
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[20:48] I think housing prices are in fact going to be coming down uh slowly but surely that will erode the confidence in the spending habits
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[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.
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[15:51] I think home prices over the next handful of years are going to decline.
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[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a rally going into end of 2025 and early 2026, and the period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 represented a +3.5% gain from the prediction date price of $6765.88, confirming the rally occurred during the predicted timeframe despite the price being lower at the target date close.
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[34:53] So, I think we're going to see near-term gold trade down close to 30 under 3,800. Price target is 3750.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed gold would trade down to $3,750, but the period low was $4,100.8 on trading day 79, which never came close to the $3,750 target (would have required a drop of ~9.4% from the prediction date price of $4,139.2).
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[39:08] the high in 2023 on the tenure was a 5%. I think we're going to go about 5%.
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[42:46] I think there's a chance that we're going to see a fairly significant rally over the next 12 months in the dollar index and some of it could be due to a liquidity squeeze
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