Chance Finucane Predictions

[11:50] We think that since 2020 we entered a different structural period for long-term bond yields where we think the Treasury yield on the 10 or 30 years going to be moving higher which is poor for bond prices and that doesn't mean you may not have a six or 12-month period where owning a 20 or 30-year Treasury bond does well, but we think on average when you're looking out five years that's not a great place to be because of this increase in uncertainty and inflation and interest rates.

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[0:00] we are looking ahead to 2027 and we do think that there's a potential for a deeper decline next year, mainly because you're going to be cycling through some some high growth, high inflation numbers from the first half of this year that when you cycle against that next year, it's going to look like growth is really decelerating, inflation's coming down. That's not a great environment for for risky assets.

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[3:47] the reversal of this trend of the last few years and it's accelerated even more in the last few months. The reversal is inevitable. And so for us uh we've actually been looking at other places to try to allocate money in a reasonable way at good valuations

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[8:41] whenever this semiconductor cycle peaks uh and starts to go down, it's probably going to be pretty severe and it's going to take a while to play out before they really become a a place you want to actively look in again.

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[8:17] when you have an industry or a series of stocks kind of go through a bubble type move where there's a ton of excitement and a stock goes up by hundreds of percent uh in a short period after it peaks. It tends to be about two and a half years that you go down until you make a new bottom.

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[17:38] if you have a a 40 or 50% market decline, that means the winners of the last cycle are probably going down by 2/3 or more.

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[19:51] by 2030, that same bullish analyst, just knowing the cycles of memory chips, has the earnings per share dropping from $250 in 2028 to 50, an 80% decline in earnings in two years.

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[33:35] the average usually is it cuts in half at some point during the first year. So, uh, if you do really want to own these sorts of, uh, newly public stocks, you have time to watch it and, uh, and just see what happens during that first year.

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[13:40] now that gold is back around 4,000, silver is back around 60, those were always kind of our targets. Not that it has to play out exactly how we would project, but this was the level we were waiting for. And now we're incrementally building those precious metals positions back into the portfolio.

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[13:40] now that gold is back around 4,000, silver is back around 60, those were always kind of our targets. Not that it has to play out exactly how we would project, but this was the level we were waiting for. And now we're incrementally building those precious metals positions back into the portfolio.

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[37:51] if you look at these sorts of secular bull runs in history over the last century, you're usually talking somewhere, we're 17 years in now, it's usually somewhere, you know, give or take 20 years. Like there's probably not a whole lot longer that this thing just continues to go up and up and up.

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[0:00] you're in this very short-term period here where we're cycling through uh the tariff announcement from a year ago where it feels like we've got higher year-over-year economic growth, but we would expect that to turn back to a growth deceleration uh within a couple of months and you're back to this sort of stagflationary type environment for the next couple of quarters.

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[26:46] you could easily make a case that silver might retrace that decline and go back down to $60 or even into the 50s uh from where it's trading today at about 80.

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[37:27] it would not surprise us if there's a pullback here in the gold and silver price over the course of couple of quarters. Um, and with the way that gold moves, just for instance, it got above $4,000. Uh, if it fell even all the way back to $3,000 an ounce, that that wouldn't shock us.

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