Peter Boockvar Predictions

[16:39] you can be sure in the next couple years. This DEM cycle will reverse the volume demand will continue up but the pricing will go down and you will see a crushing of Micron's earnings.

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[26:27] So I do think eventually this real rate move will end and then inflation will catch up to nominal rates. And I do think that this modest dollar rally is going to roll over again. So I think gold's a buy on this pullback.

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[22:28] and why I think they're certainly not cutting but I disagree with the market and thinking that they're going to hike I think Kevin Worsh is just going to sit tight for a while... these task forces may go through year end. So that gives me another reason why I think they're doing nothing this year.

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[29:31] I think the yen is just way way too cheap and the BOJ is going to have to do something and and maybe continuously raise rates this year which will eventually bring that money back.

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[19:46] But now I think that they've been thrown out to the point where they're dirt cheap with generous uh dividend yields and I do think a stabilization in their businesses that I think are be will be reflected when we see uh earnings coming uh over the next couple weeks.

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[6:08] I've been of the belief for the last couple years that uh 3 to 4% is the new inflation normal uh no longer 1 to 2%. And I still think that's the case.

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[6:37] I think the Fed's going to do nothing. I think inflation is going to vaccillate between these two sides.

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[12:28] I think at the end of the day, oil prices won't be sitting in the 70s. It'll be sitting more in the 80s and '90s uh as people realize how difficult it is to to manage the situation with Iran.

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[23:11] I I I I mean I still think we inevitably retest 5%. Which is where we we got to in the in 2023.

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[23:19] I I I I think we're in a bond bear market. I've been saying that for years. We're in a bond bear market. It is global and it follows the epic possibly the greatest financial bubble in the history of bubbles in terms of dollars when we had $18 trillion of negative yielding bonds. This is the flip side of that and I think it continues in the years to come.

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[2:57] I do think that there is a a major transition taking place here away from MAG 7 and uh I I do think that uh that's notable considering those stocks have been the leaders over the last 15 plus years.

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[18:58] I think going forward from here the anything else trade is going to do better than the AI tech trade.

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[34:06] I also do think you have a big picture story of stockpiling that is going to happen for the next couple years in a variety of different commodities as no one wants to get caught short like they did with the strait.

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[12:32] I think circumstances as of right now, the Fed's not going to be cutting. Now, I don't necessarily think that they're going to hike, but the long end of the bond market has already hiked for them.

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[22:15] I I be have I I want to get back in because that supply demand deficit is still very much intact. Uh silver's down obviously dramatically from its peak what for 354% from its highs. So it's had that correction. uh I'm just waiting for things to sort of settle out and that period as I talked about earlier of consolidation digestion after that parabolic move needs to needs to now create a sort of a technical base but from a fundamental standpoint I think the fundamentals are still very much positive for silver

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[39:09] at some point, I do think you're going to see a price response in the big row crops like corn, soybean, and wheat that the farmer desperately needs to be able to afford the big rise in fertilizer prices. Unfortunately, those of us that eat every day, we're not going to be too happy about a big jump in crop prices because that's going to flow through into general food prices. Uh so that's the dynamic I think that you're in. But I do think there's an a bull market ahead of us both in terms of of crop prices and a further rise in fertilizer prices that will benefit the fertilizer producers.

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[36:17] I think right now while it's probably the most boring area of the market, it's certainly the most hated and I think there's potentially an inflection here. uh particularly if the war ends and we get some relief on package on on on polyethylene uh where ethylene prices generally and polyethylene and that ends up in packaging and resonance and and and so on that a lot of these food companies are relying on

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[29:20] I I I see a further clogging up of this private equity, private credit sort of ecosystem that um that that is that that feasted for many years on cheap money and of course money is is is not so cheap anymore.

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[7:24] So, I do think that oil prices are not going back to the 60 $65 range uh where it was before the war. I think 8085 is the new 6065.

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[7:58] So, I do think that there's going to be sort of a bid uh underneath commodities and I do think that uh it's going to prolong what I believe is a commodity bull market that we're currently in.

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[14:29] I do think gold probably settles out at uh 7500 to 10,000 and very well could go above that

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[16:31] But I do think that uh that over the next couple years uh international markets are still providing a lot of opportunities

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[23:46] over the next 5 to 10 years, this group of stocks is not leading the market.

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[8:55] The inflation story is still going to remain with us uh even when this war ends.

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[9:26] Well then interest rates are still going to remain high.

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[18:12] I do think that the LG crunch around the world is going to continue and that natural gas prices in the US are more likely to catch up to the upside to global prices rather than the reverse.

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[23:18] I do think though that uh over the next couple years gold is the most important reserve asset in the world and that um it will resume its rally as will silver.

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[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.

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[3:44] I do think that the AI tech trade is exhausting itself. I think the bell is ringing here and Oracle is the one that rang the bell not with their last quarter when the stock fell sharply but after the spike in the previous quarter in the stock and that come down that was the bell ringing when it gave back all of those gains

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[10:10] I still believe that we're not going we may go to 2% from a rate of change standpoint for a period of time, but I don't think we sustainably stay there... I expect inflation volatility and to my point as you mentioned that I made last year, I don't expect us to go to 2% and magically stay there. We may go to 2% temporarily but I expect a real acceleration thereafter. Bottom line is I think inflation volatility is here to stay

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[10:28] we're already sowing the seeds for a further acceleration in rents probably sometime in the back half of next year into 2027

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[20:01] My favorite commodity for 2026 though is oil. I think at $56 a barrel for WTI, it's probably one of the cheapest assets in the world and finding it a very attractive place to invest right now

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[16:09] I also do think that the US dollar which has had a tough year this year will continue to weaken

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[19:56] generally speaking, we still think that there's more upside and and and we're still long these commodities

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[19:56] generally speaking, we still think that there's more upside and and and we're still long these commodities

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