Axel Merk Predictions

Investing Expert and Fed Watcher

Track Axel Merk's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

4 forecasts 4 pending
  • Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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4 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Axel Merk Fed Funds Rate The next Fed rate hike after September 2026 will likely occur in December rather than October, due to the proximity of the October meeting to the election.
See quote
[19:06] I think the odds of an October rate hiker are low because of the election coming up. Now, anybody on the Fed will tell you they're not going to be driven by politics, right? And they're certainly not going to put it in writing on the transcript by uttering a word about it during the meeting, but in the back of their mind, it has to be. And so that means unless inflation numbers are terrible, it will likely be December.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-09-16 2026-12-09 pending
Axel Merk Fed Funds Rate The Federal Reserve will make changes to its ample reserves system as a result of Warsh's task force review
See quote
[0:29:08] he said, 'We got to review the ample reserve system that we have.' ... And so expect some changes there.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-06-18 2027-06-18 pending
Axel Merk US Dollar The US dollar will weaken in the medium term as the baseline scenario
See quote
[36:24] we might be getting the best growth that debt can buy and that can be associated with a weaker currency and that would be my baseline scenario in the medium term.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-04-20 2028-04-20 pending
Axel Merk Oil The oil price increases from the Iran war will be temporary shock rather than structural change
See quote
[12:03] which means we continue to price this in as a shock rather than a structural change.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-18 2028-03-18 pending