Josh Young Predictions
CIO of Bison Interest
Track Josh Young's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
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[25:55] I think I think oil at $150 is much more likely than $60. I think we might not see oil at $60 again until the next very bad recession. So I think I think 150 is in the cards. Frankly, in between now and year end, we could see oil at, like we said, 200, 250.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[10:29] To be clear, the 250 call is not directly from the Strait of Hormuz. Like that may be the trigger. It's more of a cyclical call that cyclicals tend to go to an all-time high inflation-adjusted price at the top of each major cycle and we've been near the bottom of the oil cycle. Maybe the bottom for was 2020 where prices went negative and so after setting up with a unrealistically negative price, I think we're set up for a potentially unrealistically high oil price, 250 or higher.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[19:42] gasoline prices may actually come down a little bit here even as oil rises because we're in turnaround season right now for refiners... you're going to see the gasoline market loosen, and you should see prices fall materially, at least relative to the price of oil, to the extent that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[24:17] the rig count that we're showing is inflecting. And so, it's rising and it's about to rise quite rapidly, uh, perhaps more rapidly than it fell in early and mid 2025.
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[6:59] I'm leading heavily into oil field services, especially onshore drilling and related services in the US and Canada, where we're seeing the start of a boom... And those services stocks are very cheap, and there's a lot of upside
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[0:00] I think there's really only one way this resolves from a price perspective. And I think it's just a matter of time before we get into an environment where we hit multiple all-time highs.
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[16:00] I think there is geopolitical risk. I think it's not priced in. And like we were saying, I think even just modestly better energy and trade policy by the US could give us back, you know, 10 or $15 of price even in a situation where you have OPEC bringing back on supply. So I think there's some real nice asymmetry here. And again, I don't think that oil should necessarily be $100 here with the current supply demand dynamic, but I think the path towards marginal sanctions enforcement on Iran and sort of normalization, uh, I think there's a decent shot at sort of a $75 plus oil price through the end of the year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed oil would reach $75 or higher by end of year; the period high during the window was $66.42 on 2025-09-26, which is $8.58 below the $75 target, failing to meet the specific price threshold claimed.
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[9:21] I would expect sort of a let's say at least $8 in MCF price for LNG. Uh, right now it's at around $10 $11 or so in MCF. So, not too too much downside from current price levels and still significant potential demand for natural gas from places like the US.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.