Doomberg Predictions
Headwriter of Doomberg Substack
Track Doomberg's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
- Submit corrections
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[18:57] it's on the way, I would say. So, if you if you look at that chart and you just sort of get the halfway point of the war, we're kind of at where we were at the beginning of the war.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[21:43] there is a bulge of inflation that's coming even if things normalize and peace is achieved
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[29:13] fertilizer prices are starting to come back in of course with the rest of the energy complex after the the war you know and theou was signed
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[25:16] I would say that the LG market is actually pretty well behaved. Um, and not signaling a significant crisis. Prices are almost back to pre-war levels without seeing the chart.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[28:07] No. Um if anything um you know they the tech se the tech sector is going to be the the highest bidder for energy anyway driving up prices for electricity and natural gas as we're already seeing around the world. Um the the the biggest input into tech center that matters is US natural gas and um there's been no blip in US natural gas production. Um and if anything... we we think this is mostly a non-event for big tech.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[27:02] Look, I think the direction of travel for oil is lower... do I want to be long the price of oil in 12 months or short it from today? Of course, I'd want to be shorted.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[36:30] I don't think that OPEC breaking up is the death of the petro dollar. I think it's the death of OPEC. Something we have been calling for and others have been calling for for a long time.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[37:33] I say it's going to come online faster than skeptics think, but it still will take a long time. Um I think the first half a million barrels a day will be easier than most people realize to bring online.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[19:54] I honestly think um the war is going to go on for a very long time and I hope that I'm wrong.
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[32:12] The long-term real price of oil will be lower from here. um especially if the top is already in.
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[26:44] We think the energy markets will probably split in two um with a western hemisphere and an Asian hemisphere.
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[27:43] more pressure downwards. Um there's nothing no bullish catalyst on the horizon that we see. there's just so much of it, David.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed oil prices would face downward pressure with no bullish catalysts, and the period low of $54.98 on 2025-12-16 represents a -8.6% decline from the prediction date price of $60.13, confirming sustained downward pressure throughout the period as predicted.
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[20:13] the war in Ukraine will be settled, um, militarily and 6 to9 months things are going to look, um, very different than they do today.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
As of March 2026, the war in Ukraine is very much ongoing with active daily combat engagements, airstrikes, and drone attacks on both sides. Russia still occupies ~20% of Ukrainian territory, and while ceasefire negotiations are being attempted, no military settlement has been reached. (https://www.russiamatters.org/news/russia-ukraine-war-report-card/russia-ukraine-war-report-card-march-18-2026)
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[16:49] perhaps it's a mix of analysis and advocacy, but we think the likely outcome is this sort of peters out in the next week.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction was correct. The Israel-Iran 'Twelve-Day War' (which started June 13, 2025) ended with a ceasefire announced by Trump on June 23 and taking effect June 24, 2025 — right within the predicted one-week window from the June 23 prediction date. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelve-Day_War_ceasefire)
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[12:13] Oil's going to 50 bucks. Like you just pulled it off. I don't know who's buying oil at 61, but they don't like money.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed oil would drop to $50 per barrel; the period low was $54.98 on 2025-12-16, which is $4.98 above the $50 target, so the specific price target was not met during the prediction window.
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[10:34] there's going to be a recession. I think Trump is gambling on a V-shaped recession. We're on the back end of it before the midterms.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.