Mark Thornton Predictions

[34:03] I think they'll probably um have to, you know, raise rates again um in order to keep that equilibrium between um this interbank loan rate and the rate of price inflation.

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[28:10] Yes, I think we are. Um, you know, we're looking to merge onto that highway of hyperinflation and uh with the, you know, and a lot of that relates back to the the power of compound interest. with a large debt. That's symptomatic of all hyperinflations is large debt.

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[24:27] I kind of expect that to continue uh given the conflict in the Persian Gulf area that's exasperating um a uh a uh upturn in oil and energy prices uh that was already starting to form and it's made that much worse. And of course, it's also disrupted the fertilizer and chemical industries greatly, which is going to diminish world food production uh over the next at least several crop cycles. And so, you know, there's not going to be any letup in fuel, energy, and food uh production.

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[48:49] if you look at the expected return on the S&P 500 over the next 10 years it's re it's you know it's in it's mathematical uh proposition. This is not something I made up or anybody makes up. The expected return on the S&P 500 is close to zero over the next 10 years because the last 10 years the return has been much much higher than the long run historical average.

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[49:23] The opposite is true of commodities, precious metals, oil and energy related stocks. their returns um have been poor um over the last 10 or 20 years relative to stocks as a whole or even their own uh long long uh returns. And um and so you know mathematically speaking all of those things should do better but the policies that we've been discussing with return with respect to government uh spending uh borrowing and printing are going to help those areas of the marketplace.

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[50:49] Real assets should outperform um financial assets. and that techreated assets that have been doing so well those are you know widely considered to be cyclical industries again I'm not making anything up here this is standard uh analysis and the standard analysis says that uh tech and that sort of thing is cyclical they go up and down with Fed policy and the business cycle.

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[6:08] they foresee inflation being high and higher going out you know, the rest of this year and next year. So they're probably seeing accelerating price inflation and they don't want to you know, cut rates right now

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[24:26] And that's why I'm also expecting um higher in uh price inflation and currency depreciation uh in the global economy.

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[21:00] I I would think that all paper dollar-denominated assets um, facing a very difficult future. And, uh, you know, just the regular financial people, um, you know, when they look at it, they say, "Well, based on the returns in stocks over the last 10 years, we anticipate a very low rate of return on stocks over the next 10 years." And the same thing with bonds

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[11:55] I think we're still going to get a significant crisis because it's ultimately driven by global monetary policy and we're in the midst of a terrible cycle in that global monetary policy.

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[26:43] I suspect that a lot of the arrangements that have been made are ultimately going to make a lot of this fall unfairly um, the taxpayer and the customer. The utility the utility customers.

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[1:20] I think we are close. I think that the uh worldwide economy is uh suffering from financial distress throughout the economy.

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[25:43] the ultimate consequences uh of that type of behavior is that in general there's either a crack up in the economy uh where the economy goes into a sort of deflationary depression or where as a result of government debt and obligations the economy um becomes exposed to higher and higher rates of inflation. or even hyperinflation in the economy when uh participants all become generally aware of the fact that the government's never going to pay it back

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[5:21] I think it's going to be very significant. Um and of course uh what you have going on here is that uh the prominent players particularly the United States um our population doesn't have really the information is being blocked... higher fuel prices, higher food prices um and uh higher costs for businesses really globally.

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[8:11] higher fuel prices, higher food prices um and uh higher costs for businesses really globally... if all these grain products are uh suffering from a deficit and the deficit is not just weather in the United States, but it's a global phenomenon, you know, impacting all countries... it means economic hardship and economic suffering for people around the globe.

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[40:15] Oh yes, I'm very constructive on the precious metals... gold and silver prices are going to at least keep up with the underlying inflationary um uh system that the globe is dependent upon... I think um you know we've suffered from this severe correction in the markets. Uh the markets have all stabilized. uh the big gold and silver companies are almost back up to their old highs and so I think the outlook in the in these areas is very strong

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[46:05] I think maybe by the time we next talk we're going to see more stories and more hints of a monetary demand for silver as well. And I think that's when you know an economy, an economic downturn and um people rethinking uh about silver in terms of its monetary role and of its anti-inflationary role. I think you start to get both of those markets rolling.

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[46:45] the big gold and silver companies are almost back up to their old highs and so I think the outlook in the in these areas is very strong and it's really just a matter of I think waiting for the speculators in these markets to pick up the baton once again... once the speculators see the signs, their signs, and they start picking back up in precious metals and in gold and silver mining stocks, uh then I I I can see the whole market uh rising together.

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[51:03] I do not put it past them whatsoever to try to revalue gold uh in order to you know accomplish some sort of economic goal or political goal get reelected or you know have a uh better rating on US government bonds uh that sort of thing.

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[32:56] The Republicans, you know, the midterm elections are coming up. uh things don't look very good for them and um so they need to make the economy appear as well as they can possibly uh bring it before November 3rd uh to try to get their boss and his political party uh reelected essentially.

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[33:46] we're going to reach a breaking point and they but they're probably want that breaking point to occur after the election.

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[21:58] That's all going to be adversely affected by what are already high prices for diesel which I expect to go much higher uh because of the um bottlenecks caused uh by the war in the Persian Gulf area.

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[21:00] I think we're at sort of the end stage of a very long and vast bubble in the stock market which has been enhanced by below market interest rates and now basically interest rates are in real terms adjusted for inflation near zero. So we're seeing uh over the last quarter or so a big blowoff top uh in stocks. So I think there's that risk.

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[10:48] we're going to eventually see a cluster of entrepreneurial errors when these data centers are not profitable uh you know going forward

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[41:23] I think they're going to try to use financial repression and uh that means the Fed is going to come in that would mean if if that's true, if my guess is true, that would mean an expansion of quantitative easing. And that means where the Fed directly purchases government bonds from the market to suppress interest rates. And specifically, I think they would be making purchases from the long end of the curve in terms of 10-year and 30-year government bonds

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[43:23] I think also he's going to try to get to the target rate of inflation which they haven't done in over five years by simply redefining the statistics. uh that's been the last refuge of uh central bankers that when they they can't actually make markets behave the way they really want then they just change the information that's being put out. In this case statistics uh they'll just rememeasure consumer prices so it appears that they're closer to the 2% target.

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[28:52] So where there's a looming agricultural crisis uh in the next couple of crop rotations. So um you know these things spiral out of control

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[32:55] copper is in tight supply. It's at an all-time high price right now. And it's in very high demand by AI and data centers

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[7:13] the case Schiller um uh measure of valuation of the S&P 500 is at its second highest level above normal valuations in history. So if you go back 150 years, there's only been one time when the case uh measure of valuation was any higher in relative term. So yes, we are late stage and we are um you know seeing that final uh stages of blowoff in asset markets.

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[21:16] breaking support in terms of the the uh foreign exchange value of the US dollar. That's also uh looks weak. It looks like it's on a precipice. uh it's been testing uh up in the high 90s right now. It's broken through down through a 100.

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[20:38] we're pretty much poised on a precipice of interest rates on long-term government debt breaking out to the upside.

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[46:05] I don't see this really getting um there's no path of this getting better uh for the American household other than those in the top 1% other than those in the top 10%

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