Michael Lebowitz Predictions
Portfolio Manager
Track Michael Lebowitz's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:07] I do think that 10-year bond yields at 5%. Is potentially a line in the sand for both the economy, the stock market, and definitely the Treasury, and possibly the Fed. We're pretty close to 5% at this point. In the short run, that may be our maximum upside in yield.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[42:56] you and Lance still think that secular lower bond yields lie ahead over the next couple years. Um, first off, I'll take a beat. True. >> Yes.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[38:41] I personally don't think he's going to raise rates this September.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points at its September 16, 2026 meeting, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4% in a unanimous 12-0 FOMC vote. The prediction that the Fed would NOT raise rates was incorrect. (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a1.htm)
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[39:45] as it prices that in fully, I think longer yields can actually come down, you know, so you know, the curve will continue to flatten.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[0:01] I suspect that we'll probably fall a little bit more, test that old resistance line, then we'll see whether we were back off to the races or if this we're just going back into the consolidation. This was a false breakout. Similar to the false breakout on the downside we had in mid late June.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction called for a pullback to test the old resistance line (bearish near-term), and indeed the S&P 500 declined from $7753.11 on the prediction date to a period low of $7507.77 on trading day 26 (a drop of ~3.2%), ending the target period at $7651.54 (-1.3%), consistent with the predicted pullback and testing of prior resistance levels.
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[10:49] PCE coming out I think it's in two weeks towards the very end of this month is supposed to fall from 4.1 to 3.7 with a core going to I think 32 or 33.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The BEA's July 30, 2026 release confirmed headline PCE fell from 4.1% to 3.7% and core PCE came in at 3.3%, matching the prediction precisely on all counts. (https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/30/economy/us-pce-inflation-consumer-spending-june)
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[0:00] if you want to take a few chips off the table for the next six months, understanding that we could have these short-term surges, short-term declines, we could very much end up where we were, you know, at the end of the year where we are today. But we're probably gonna have more volatility and more reason to take just a cautious approach.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[11:46] I think that's a constant headwind that the market is going to be dealing with all year.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[9:54] I think the way investors look at it is SpaceX is kind of a mag seven. And what they're saying is, okay, I'm going to be buying SpaceX, whether it's today or whether it's a week from now. Let me start by making room. I'll sell Nvidia. I'll sell Apple. I'll sell Microsoft. whatever it is. So, I think those stocks got a little disproportionately hit
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claims Magnificent Seven stocks faced 'disproportionate' selling pressure due to SpaceX IPO portfolio rebalancing, which is a qualitative/relative claim about cause and magnitude that's difficult to verify purely from NDX price data; while NDX did decline ~4.2% to target date and ~5.7% at period low, whether this was 'disproportionate' relative to broader market or specifically caused by SpaceX IPO room-making cannot be determined from the price data alone.
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[28:34] Almost all of them, not counting Nvidia, but all the hyperscalers are now flat to negative cash flow, meaning they have they're if they want to keep spending the way they are, they need to borrow money. And we've seen them all do big fixed bond deals now, they're all coming to the equity market.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[26:31] re inflation rates could come down pretty quickly when we're out there in the summer, you know, early fall
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Rather than falling quickly, US inflation surged to a 2023-comparable high of 4.2% in May 2026 following a US-Iran war energy shock, and only gradually eased to 3.5% in June and 3.4% in July — still well above the pre-conflict level of ~2.4% and far from a 'quick' decline by summer/early fall. (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/inflation-breakdown-for-july-2026-cpi-in-one-chart.html)
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[35:09] No, I think inflation's heading back to 2% or even lower.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.