Labor Market Predictions
Browse Labor Market market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[5:08] we're going to see layoffs start to accelerate throughout the year as companies cut the factors of production because of the margin squeeze. We're already seeing layoffs. We'll see those accelerate.
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[21:21] I think we're going to see a cliff dive in manufacturing and a realization this summer that we've gone right back into an industrial recession.
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[14:18] I would still say people will try and learn it just to understand what AI is doing, just to have a basic understanding of what's happening in that black box. And it's also obviously very good for us to learn how to code because it structures our thinking. But nonetheless, I think human coders in the future will become obsolete.
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[19:35] you'll start to see firming of manufacturing employment data as companies start to feel a confident in expansion, b the order flow is coming in, and c that there's uh room for investment because they haven't been willing to make investments for many years that they're going to start wanting to make those investments.
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[18:08] I don't think people have come to conclusion how much AI is going to impact the employment picture on a negative standpoint. I think that's a topic 6 to 12 months from now the financial world will be talking a lot more not about all the stocks in 25 that were going up and people making money but how much AI has gotten to the point where it's actually causing serious drop in employment
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[7:10] I personally believe that we are going to go through a period of significant disruption to to the job market. I think that's going to be a combination of uh a lot of natural pullback of things that got overheated and bloated uh and companies that use AI as an excuse uh and and sort of a cover if you will to uh you know do um uh draw downs in their employee base.
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[21:01] So basically what you're saying is more layoffs will happen before this gets better unless something dramatic changes because again we're not seeing the benefits that we were supposed to be seeing at this point from one big beautiful bill.
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[0:12] I think in the background I'm seeing the path to deterioration of the labor market and paradoxically the less visible it is the worse it's probably going to be.
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[27:31] I think the I think the labor market recession continues
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[12:54] I've talked to law firms that believe, firmly believe a 200 person law firm will soon, and I'm talking 18 months, be a 110 or even a 90 person law firm. They just won't need the people in the seats.
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[11:32] Typically, hiring slowing of hiring leads layoffs. If you go back and look at the uh at the the 2008 cycle, uh hiring slowed ahead of the layoffs that eventually occurred. If you look at the 2000 cycle, you see the same thing. And so and that lead is usually something like 6 to 12 months um in in those past couple of cycles... you know, it probably won't be long. If there are signs of slowing demand, which is really what businesses respond to, right? If are they seeing sales or they not seeing sales, that's when you could start to see uh you could start to see layoffs start to pick up
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The prediction was correct: layoffs surged sharply following the hiring slowdown, with annual layoffs and discharges increasing by 1.2 million (58% more than 2024) in 2025, the highest rate since the 2020 pandemic — consistent with the predicted 6–12 month lag pattern. (https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-saw-pandemic-level-layoffs-140000874.html)