Mark Newton Predictions
Head of Technical Strategy at Fundstrat
Track Mark Newton's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
- Rankings only reflect predictions tracked on this site and do not represent a predictor's full record.
- Grading involves judgment and may not always be clear-cut.
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[0:00] my target it was lifted to 8,000 from 7,300. I do see that by end of year market should end the year on a positive note. I just don't think it's going to be an easy uh two or three months.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[3:16] where we go next I think is it's going to prove a little bit choppy between now in the midterms. It it shouldn't be a straight shot continued push higher in the next few months.
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[4:02] I don't suspect that tech is going to be probably the best sector over the next couple months.
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[4:13] crude oil to me looks like we're going to continue this little bounce that we started in the month of July up higher into probably mid-September early October which is going to be a source of probable discomfort for the markets.
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[5:23] my biggest risks over the next few months are that yields on the long end still are likely going to rise and also that crude oil also can probably rise.
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[6:03] I think we're entering a time when specifically in September, we're likely going to get some volatility and uh we can speak about that in more detail.
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[27:35] the dollar should be headed to the downside over the next year. And if we can keep growth and we can keep interest rates from going up too high, then that absolutely will be beneficial, I think, to earnings.
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[27:19] even if we bounce after the yen gets to say 151 I don't sense it'll get much higher versus the dollar. So I I do sense that dollar yen's move will prove shortlived for their own reasons of say gradualism.
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[37:29] I think that uh you know that should carry us that should carry us higher in the markets in general over the next couple years even if it's a it's a choppy time in 2026.
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[36:34] eventually probably come the third quarter 2028, we'll reach sort of a tipping point where uh you know some of the cycles I look at start to turn down into like 2030.
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[16:26] yields likely cannot get too far above 475 on the 10-year uh without causing a very noticeable trigger where, you know, the Treasury will come in and start to buy massive amounts of uh different kinds of securities
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[14:04] Um I do suspect that we, you know, potentially give back probably 3 to 5% of the 12% maybe that we have done. So that likely could happen between now and the middle part of May if what I'm thinking is correct.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction claimed a 3-5% decline from the prediction date price of $7108.4, but the period low was $7046.55 (also on the prediction date itself), representing only a 0.87% decline, far short of the 3-5% drop predicted.
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[21:04] I expect the markets are going to rally really into the latter part of July probably mid August. I think it's actually going to be a pretty decent uh rally.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
The prediction called for a rally into late July through mid-August 2026, and the S&P 500 rose from $7108.4 on the prediction date to a period high of $7816.7 on August 13 (trading day 77), representing a gain of approximately 9.9% and occurring exactly in the predicted timeframe.
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[23:21] my own time frame for real estate is that we peak this or next year and pull back into probably 28 20 20 and that should be a cyclical long-term low for the real estate market.
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[24:44] I I don't view those as being uh something that add a lot of value for people. Uh honestly, if I had to give people something that I thought might be a better sticking point as to my views is that this year is going to be a choppy year uh full of both declines and also big sharp advances and and but I think the market ends higher.
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