Mike Green Predictions

Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management

Track Mike Green's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

9 forecasts 9 pending
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9 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Mike Green Treasury Yields The U.S. Treasury will be forced to address dysfunction in the long-end bond market through expanded buybacks and market involvement.
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[4:23] I think unfortunately, the Treasury is going to be forced to address this through a combination of issuance and market involvement and in factors like buying back those low-priced bonds because the current participants are ignoring it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-09-09 2027-09-09 pending
Mike Green US Housing Market High interest rates will continue to suppress new home construction, keeping home prices and rents elevated.
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[10:14] By keeping interest rates high in an attempt to forestall inflation, you are preventing new homes from being built. Those new homes mean that there will be a relative shortage of homes available and home prices and rents will be higher than they otherwise would be.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-09-09 2027-09-09 pending
Mike Green Consumer Spending Reduced new car sales due to high interest rates will keep used car prices elevated.
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[10:14] Likewise, fewer cars are being sold into the system. That means that used car prices are going to be supported on a relative basis.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-09-09 2027-09-09 pending
Mike Green US Economy High interest rate policy could push the U.S. economy into distress, forcing the Fed to rapidly cut interest rates in response to a sharp slowdown.
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[10:44] We may enter into distress because of the high interest rate policy, and that would create a catastrophic slowdown in economic activity that the Fed would then be forced to respond to by rapidly lowering interest rates.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-09-09 2027-09-09 pending
Mike Green Consumer Spending Growing numbers of American households approaching a financial breaking point will eventually trigger a sharp, catastrophic reduction in consumer spending.
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[14:44] more and more people are telling us they're getting closer and closer to that breaking point... that is a catastrophic reduction of spending that is created once people hit a breaking point.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-09-09 2027-09-09 pending
Mike Green Gold Gold could break out to the upside as trust in the Federal Reserve declines.
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[49:07] Gold, Commodities and the 'Negative Trust' Trade... Why Gold Could Break Out as Trust in the Fed Falls

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-09-09 2027-09-09 pending
Mike Green Passive Investing Share Passive investing share will reach the ~65% danger zone threshold in approximately two and a half years (around late 2028), based on current growth of ~4% per year from the current 53% level
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[32:43] passive is gaining about 4% a year. So, you know, the math would suggest we're about two and a half years out. Once it gets inside kind of that 2-year window, there's tools that are available to start playing it.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-17 2028-11-17 pending
Mike Green 401K Flows 401k passive capital flows will weaken and decline over the next decade due to boomer retirements and underemployment of younger workers
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[12:30] those 401k flows are are increasingly at risk... the vast majority of them will be retired over the next decade. Um as well as the simple reality that we are now creating undermployment conditions for the next generation means that those 401k flows are are increasingly at risk.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-17 2036-05-17 pending
Mike Green S&P 500 Equities will enter a prolonged lower-return and higher-volatility environment as passive flow tailwinds reverse, analogous to the shift from the 1920s bull market to the 1930s bear market
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[34:28] what we have experienced through a combination of two factors the introduction of defined contribution relative to defined benefit and the introduction of passive to facilitate investing in that defined contribution framework are two once in a-lifetime phenomenon that are unlikely to repeat themselves... we are creating conditions where that eventually has to be reversed under demographic features and the higher volatility that emerges. Um, and that's the unpleasant experience. That would be like going... that is the experience of investing in the 1920s versus investing in the 1930s.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-05-17 2030-05-17 pending