Mike Green Predictions
Portfolio Manager and Chief Strategist, Simplify Asset Management
Track Mike Green's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
3 forecasts 3 pending
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3 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Mike Green Passive Investing Share Passive investing share will reach the ~65% danger zone threshold in approximately two and a half years (around late 2028), based on current growth of ~4% per year from the current 53% level Thoughtful Money 2026-05-17 2028-11-17 pending
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[32:43] passive is gaining about 4% a year. So, you know, the math would suggest we're about two and a half years out. Once it gets inside kind of that 2-year window, there's tools that are available to start playing it.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Mike Green 401K Flows 401k passive capital flows will weaken and decline over the next decade due to boomer retirements and underemployment of younger workers Thoughtful Money 2026-05-17 2036-05-17 pending
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[12:30] those 401k flows are are increasingly at risk... the vast majority of them will be retired over the next decade. Um as well as the simple reality that we are now creating undermployment conditions for the next generation means that those 401k flows are are increasingly at risk.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
Mike Green S&P 500 Equities will enter a prolonged lower-return and higher-volatility environment as passive flow tailwinds reverse, analogous to the shift from the 1920s bull market to the 1930s bear market Thoughtful Money 2026-05-17 2030-05-17 pending
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[34:28] what we have experienced through a combination of two factors the introduction of defined contribution relative to defined benefit and the introduction of passive to facilitate investing in that defined contribution framework are two once in a-lifetime phenomenon that are unlikely to repeat themselves... we are creating conditions where that eventually has to be reversed under demographic features and the higher volatility that emerges. Um, and that's the unpleasant experience. That would be like going... that is the experience of investing in the 1920s versus investing in the 1930s.
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.