S&P 500 Predictions

Browse S&P 500 market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.

80 forecasts 39 commentators 24% accuracy 9 correct 28 wrong 43 pending
80 forecasts
Person Subject Forecast* Source Date Deadline** Outcome
Peter Berezin S&P 500 The stock market will probably end up at a lower level at the end of 2026 than current levels
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[1:45] So, I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that. probably will end up at a lower level at the end of this year than where we are today.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-04-03 2026-12-31 pending
Larry McDonald S&P 500 The S&P 500 will go lower overall.
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[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-04-01 2026-12-31 pending
Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 correction will be 10-15% total and will bottom out within the next two weeks
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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-01 2026-04-14 pending
Ed Yardeni S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach 7700 by end of 2026
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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-04-01 2026-12-31 pending
Brent Johnson S&P 500 The S&P 500 will struggle to break above current levels and will likely remain in a sideways channel through the midterm elections.
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[8:43] I think that it's going to be very hard for the market to break through that ceiling between now and the midterms. Um, wouldn't shock me at all if we go back up to kind of those highs or or if we just go sideways for a while. But I think it's going to be very hard to break out of that, you know, sideways channel uh between now and the election.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-04-01 2026-11-03 pending
Peter Boockvar S&P 500 The S&P 500 will not reach new highs despite any rally from war resolution
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[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Wealthion 2026-04-01 2026-12-31 pending
Colonel Douglas Macgregor S&P 500 The bottom will fall out of the market
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[33:34] And I don't think we're going to move in a fundamentally new direction until the bottom falls out of the market. And I think that's coming.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-04-01 2027-04-01 pending
Jay Pelosky S&P 500 S&P 500 will achieve 8-10% returns from current level of 6600 to end of year
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[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-03-24 2026-12-31 pending
Gareth Soloway S&P 500 The S&P 500 could decline to 5,600 by year end
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[28:53] So what this tells me is that the stock market, the S&P could easily trade back down to 5600 by year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-03-23 2026-12-31 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will experience more market weakness that may linger for a while
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[0:22] there's a a good bit more market weakness that potentially may linger here for a while.

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Thoughtful Money 2026-03-21 2026-09-21 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally back above the 200 day moving average to 6720-6750 next week
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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-21 2026-03-28

The prediction claimed a rally back above the 200-day moving average to 6720-6750, but the period high during the target week was only $6651.62 on 2026-03-23, which falls short of the claimed 6720-6750 price target range by at least $68.38.

Mike McGlone S&P 500 The S&P 500 will experience a third 50% drawdown since 2000
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[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-20 2026-12-31 pending
Gareth Soloway S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach 5600 by year end 2026
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[34:14] you will see in my opinion possibly by year end 5600 on the S&P.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-18 2026-12-31 pending
Larry McDonald S&P 500 The S&P 500's composition in materials, industrials and energy will rise from current 14% to 25-30%
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[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Kitco NEWS 2026-03-17 2030-03-17 pending
Lance Roberts S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally starting within the next week through April, experience volatility through summer midterm elections, then rally into year end.
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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-03-14 2026-12-31 pending
Todd Horwitz S&P 500 The S&P 500 will experience a collapse similar to 2008
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[0:00] I expect a pretty nasty collapse. I expect something similar to 2008.

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The David Lin Report 2026-03-13 2027-03-13 pending
Todd Horwitz S&P 500 The S&P 500 will decline 8-15% in the next 6 weeks
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[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-13 2026-04-24 pending
David Woo S&P 500 The stock market will go down due to the protracted Iran conflict
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[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically tackle.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-03-10 2026-05-10 pending
Steve Hanke S&P 500 The stock market is currently in bubble territory with PE ratios of 28-29.
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[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-08 2027-03-08 pending
Chris Vermeulen S&P 500 The S&P 500 could run up to around 6,945
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[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-03-02 2026-04-02

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 could run up to 6,945, but the period high during the 23 trading days was only 6,901.01 on the prediction date itself, falling 43.99 points short of the 6,945 target, so the specific price target was not met.

Gareth Soloway S&P 500 S&P 500 will decline to 6,100 by mid-year 2026
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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-02-23 2026-07-01 pending
Gareth Soloway S&P 500 S&P 500 will eventually decline to around 5,600
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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-02-23 2026-12-31 pending
Peter Grandich S&P 500 The stock market will move sideways to down for the rest of 2026
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[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-02-20 2026-12-31 pending
Ted Oakley S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach both new highs and recent new lows over the next year and a half
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[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The Julia La Roche Show 2026-02-17 2027-08-17 pending
Danielle DiMartino Booth S&P 500 2026 will be the year of the shakeout with defensive assets being the places to hide.
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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-02-03 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Oliver S&P 500 The S&P 500 will peak in February 2026 and then enter a massive bear market
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[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

Thoughtful Money 2026-01-29 2026-06-29 pending
Thomas Hayes S&P 500 S&P 500 will not experience the typical 18.3% drawdown seen in midterm election years due to fiscal stimulus and easing cycle
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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2026-12-31 pending
Thomas Hayes S&P 500 S&P 500 will be strong through April 2026, very weak into the election, then recover by year end
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[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-22 2026-12-31 pending
Christopher Mullen S&P 500 The S&P 500 will stabilize and recover by Tuesday and Wednesday from the news-driven selloff.
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[3:47] So the markets are likely to gap lower, potentially even lower from today. And I think we could see bargain hunters step back in and buy things back up. So again, it's a news-driven move. I you can't really trust news-driven moves. And um same same with price gaps. The gap in prices should rebound. So, that's what I'm expecting to happen uh probably Tuesday and Wednesday as the market stabilizes and recovers from this little news-driven bout of selling.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-19 2026-01-22

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'stabilize and recover' by Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 21-22), and the data shows the period low of $6789.05 on Jan 20 represented only a 0.1% decline from the prediction date price of $6796.86, followed by a recovery to a period high of $6934.75 on Jan 22 (a 1.7% gain), confirming the stabilization and recovery pattern claimed.

Christopher Mullen S&P 500 The S&P 500 will reach 7,225 representing about 4.5% upside potential.
See quote
[14:34] Now, it's not a whole lot of upside from where it is right now. It's about um as of today, you and I are speaking, it's about 4 and a.5% to the upside. So, uh, that's 7,225

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-19 2026-12-31 pending
Christopher Mullen S&P 500 The stock market will reach a major top within weeks.
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[7:34] I think we're getting closer and closer, like weeks potentially from a major market top.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-19 2026-03-19

The prediction claimed a 'major market top within weeks,' which is a bearish prediction expecting a significant peak followed by decline. The period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 (6 trading days after prediction) represents a 3.0% gain from the prediction date price of $6796.86, followed by a decline to $6606.49 (-2.8%) by the target date. While the market did reach a peak and decline, the prediction was vague about the magnitude of the 'major top' and the subsequent move was relatively modest; however, the market did produce a top that declined notably, making the core claim of a market top occurring correct.

Steve Hanke S&P 500 The stock market bubble will probably continue due to Fed monetary loosening
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[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-17 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Welsh S&P 500 The S&P 500 could see a pullback in the near term due to weakness in AI-related stocks
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[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-16 2026-04-16

The prediction claimed a pullback could occur in the S&P 500 due to AI stock weakness, and the period low of $6473.52 (trading day 43) represents a -6.7% decline from the prediction date price of $6940.01, confirming that a pullback did indeed occur during the target window.

Jim Welsh S&P 500 Any S&P 500 decline should be limited to between 3% and 7%
See quote
[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-16 2026-07-16 pending
Todd Horwitz S&P 500 The equity markets will decline 40-60% in the next market cycle
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[12:57] I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities. And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2026-01-04 2027-01-04 pending
Harry Dent S&P 500 The S&P 500 will decline 90% when the bubble bursts.
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[28:07] The uh S&P 500 90% and the NASDAQ 95%. If we just go back to the last major low

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The David Lin Report 2025-12-22 2026-12-31 pending
Lobo Tiggre S&P 500 A significant unwind of the AI trade will happen in 2026, potentially causing a waterfall event in the markets
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[5:49] I think the big thing that's coming is a significant unwind of the AI trade. And whether that's actually the AI bubble popping and a and a waterfall event in the markets or something a little less harmful, I'm not sure.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-12-17 2026-12-31 pending
Mike McGlone S&P 500 The S&P 500 will have a down year in 2026, potentially reverting towards 5,000
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[15:28] I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-12-16 2026-12-31 pending
Michael Howell S&P 500 The S&P 500 will be range-bound in 2026
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[36:56] my view, which I've been saying for some months now, is that 2026 is likely at best to be a rangebound market for the S&P

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-12-15 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Welsh S&P 500 The stock market will enter a secular bear market sometime over the next window of time
See quote
[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-12-31 pending
Jim Welsh S&P 500 The S&P 500 will rally going into the end of this year and early next year
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[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-25 2026-03-31

The prediction claimed a rally going into end of 2025 and early 2026, and the period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 represented a +3.5% gain from the prediction date price of $6765.88, confirming the rally occurred during the predicted timeframe despite the price being lower at the target date close.

Gareth Soloway S&P 500 S&P 500 will experience a 10-15% correction after already topping out
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[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-17 2026-02-17

The prediction claimed a 10-15% correction would occur, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.2% decline from the prediction date price of $6672.41, falling significantly short of the 10% minimum threshold required for the prediction to be correct.

Peter Grandich S&P 500 Stock market performance will be very different (negative) in 2026
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[11:31] going into 2026. I think it's going to be a totally different story.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-11-12 2026-12-31 pending
Chris Vermeulen S&P 500 The markets are very close to going for a nose dive
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[19:17] I think we're walking through a landmine and I think we're very close to the markets going for a nose dive.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-21 2026-04-21

The prediction claimed the markets would go for a 'nose dive' (a sharp, significant decline), and while the period low of $6473.52 on 2026-03-20 represents a -3.9% decline from the prediction date price of $6735.35, the market also rallied to $7002.28 (a +3.96% gain) during the period, demonstrating that the market did not experience a clear 'nose dive' but rather volatility with both significant gains and losses, making the directional prediction only partially correct.

Mark Zandi S&P 500 The economy will avoid recession and regain traction within 6 to 12 months with monetary and fiscal stimulus.
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[20:39] My baseline is the firewall will hold and we'll get to the other side of this 6 n 12 months down the road. We'll get some monetary fiscal stimulus and the economy should regain some traction. We should avoid recession.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-13 2026-10-13 pending
Jim Bianco S&P 500 Stocks will return approximately 6% annually over the next 5 to 10 years.
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[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-10-12 2034-10-12 pending
Richard Smith S&P 500 The S&P 500 will decline in the near term into October and November
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[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.

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The David Lin Report 2025-10-01 2025-11-30

The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would decline in the near term into October and November, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.8% decline from the prediction date price of $6711.2, while the index ultimately closed 2.1% higher on the target date, showing the market did not sustain a meaningful downward move as predicted.

Chris Vermeulen S&P 500 S&P 500 has about 3% upside with target around 680 on SPY ETF
See quote
[39:08] there's an upside target around 680 SPY. So, this this target is showing us we've got about 3% upside.

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The David Lin Report 2025-09-24 2025-12-31

The prediction claimed 3% upside to a target of 680 SPY (approximately $6800 on S&P 500), and the period high reached $6945.77, which represents a 4.6% gain from the prediction date price of $6637.97, exceeding the claimed 3% upside target.

Ted Oakley S&P 500 The S&P 500 will not achieve the estimated 16% earnings increase for 2026
See quote
[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.

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The David Lin Report 2025-09-19 2026-12-31 pending
Adrian Day S&P 500 The S&P 500 will experience a correction as market leaders roll over
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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders

Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.

The David Lin Report 2025-09-16 2026-09-16 pending