S&P 500 Predictions
Browse S&P 500 market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[1:45] So, I kind of see the path of the stock market being like that. probably will end up at a lower level at the end of this year than where we are today.
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[19:38] Yeah, I think the market overall is going lower, but there are places in the market that are that are outperforming dramatically.
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[0:00] And I still think this will turn out to be a 10 to 15% correction. And we're halfway through that and that it it could could happen in this week or or next week.
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[17:59] and uh uh you know I'm I'm still using 7700 uh by by the end of u of the of the year
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[8:43] I think that it's going to be very hard for the market to break through that ceiling between now and the midterms. Um, wouldn't shock me at all if we go back up to kind of those highs or or if we just go sideways for a while. But I think it's going to be very hard to break out of that, you know, sideways channel uh between now and the election.
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[8:08] I don't think this is something that takes us to new highs because of that major worry.
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[33:34] And I don't think we're going to move in a fundamentally new direction until the bottom falls out of the market. And I think that's coming.
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[12:35] And guess what? Eight to 10% is what JP Morgan thinks the S&P will do between now and the end of the year. Their year-end target was 7500. They lowered it to 7200. We're at 6600.
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[28:53] So what this tells me is that the stock market, the S&P could easily trade back down to 5600 by year end.
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[0:22] there's a a good bit more market weakness that potentially may linger here for a while.
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[30:25] So, you can see this market rally back above the 200 day moving average next week. Uh get back to 6720, 6750 in there, that wouldn't be surprising at all.
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The prediction claimed a rally back above the 200-day moving average to 6720-6750, but the period high during the target week was only $6651.62 on 2026-03-23, which falls short of the claimed 6720-6750 price target range by at least $68.38.
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[0:06] Like this is the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since 2000.
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[34:14] you will see in my opinion possibly by year end 5600 on the S&P.
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[28:50] by 1981 49% of the S&P 500's composition was in materials industrials and energy 49%. We're right now maybe 14. We're nowhere near I Are we going back to 49? No. But are we going at 25 30? Yes.
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[25:48] we're going to get a rally maybe starting in the next week or so that goes through April and then we're going to get into summer, which is premidterm elections. I'd expect a lot more chop and volatility during the summer, get through till we get through the midterm elections and then a rally into year end.
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[0:00] I expect a pretty nasty collapse. I expect something similar to 2008.
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[10:17] it wouldn't surprise me at all if we were down in the next, you know, let's say 6 weeks 8 to 15%.
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[18:46] I think it's going to last long enough for the market to go down. Okay. And then that market going down will force Trump to basically tackle.
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[8:33] the stock market is in a bubble. It's in bubble territory and and it wasn't in bubble territory in 1978. The the PE ratio was eight. Now it's you know up in 29 28.
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[12:27] I would think the markets will want to run uh somewhere all the way up to we could very easily see it the S&P 500 run up to like um 600 and or 6,945 somewhere up here.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 could run up to 6,945, but the period high during the 23 trading days was only 6,901.01 on the prediction date itself, falling 43.99 points short of the 6,945 target, so the specific price target was not met.
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[6:12] And again, I'm looking at a downside move by mid year back to about 6,100 on the S&P. That would be our first major technical support.
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[7:10] my guess is is even though we'll have plenty of bounces eventually we do find our way all the way down to 5600 or so on the S&P
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[6:15] my advice has been, and it's been on record, that we were going to potentially ek slightly over 50,000. There'd be a celebration by the don't worry happy crowd on Wall Street. Little did I know that the attorney general would create a new stock sale signal for the next generation with her Dow 50,000 comment. But you're right, it's rolling over. I believe the major top has been put in and I believe we're going to go into a more consolidated sideways to down movement for the rest of the year in the stock market.
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[0:00] I think the next year and a half you're going to have new highs and recent new lows in the market both.
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[0:00] 2026 is the year of the shakeout. There will be places to hide. It's just they'll be fairly defensive in nature.
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[32:52] Last three months we've been arguing it's got to continue up though. Get above 7,000 which it did today but probably even more probably at least get into February before it decides to roll over again. But we think it's a broad topping process of major proportions. is going into a massive bare market
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[10:39] I don't think we're going to get that pronounced of a draw down or average draw down this year because you do have uh a level of fiscal stimulus coming through in the form of tax returns jumping 40 50% uh you know 50 some odd billion dollars going in consumer's pockets and you are in an easing cycle
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[24:26] We're strong through April, very weak into the election, recovery year end.
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[3:47] So the markets are likely to gap lower, potentially even lower from today. And I think we could see bargain hunters step back in and buy things back up. So again, it's a news-driven move. I you can't really trust news-driven moves. And um same same with price gaps. The gap in prices should rebound. So, that's what I'm expecting to happen uh probably Tuesday and Wednesday as the market stabilizes and recovers from this little news-driven bout of selling.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'stabilize and recover' by Tuesday and Wednesday (Jan 21-22), and the data shows the period low of $6789.05 on Jan 20 represented only a 0.1% decline from the prediction date price of $6796.86, followed by a recovery to a period high of $6934.75 on Jan 22 (a 1.7% gain), confirming the stabilization and recovery pattern claimed.
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[14:34] Now, it's not a whole lot of upside from where it is right now. It's about um as of today, you and I are speaking, it's about 4 and a.5% to the upside. So, uh, that's 7,225
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[7:34] I think we're getting closer and closer, like weeks potentially from a major market top.
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The prediction claimed a 'major market top within weeks,' which is a bearish prediction expecting a significant peak followed by decline. The period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 (6 trading days after prediction) represents a 3.0% gain from the prediction date price of $6796.86, followed by a decline to $6606.49 (-2.8%) by the target date. While the market did reach a peak and decline, the prediction was vague about the magnitude of the 'major top' and the subsequent move was relatively modest; however, the market did produce a top that declined notably, making the core claim of a market top occurring correct.
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[39:39] with all this pressure Trump is putting on them, the Fed has pivoted towards loosening. And that means that the stock market bubble will probably stay with us.
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[4:45] it implies that yes we could see a pullback uh in the S&P 500 like we did today because the top 41 uh uh AI related stocks comprise 47% of the S&P. So you do have this huge concentration and if that sector gets weak that becomes problematic for the S&P
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The prediction claimed a pullback could occur in the S&P 500 due to AI stock weakness, and the period low of $6473.52 (trading day 43) represents a -6.7% decline from the prediction date price of $6940.01, confirming that a pullback did indeed occur during the target window.
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[12:06] the technical underpinnings right now suggest decline should be somewhere between 3 and 7%.
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[12:57] I expect to see 40 to 60% in the equities. And I'm not saying it'll be all next year, but I think over the the next run will be 40 to 60% lower.
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[28:07] The uh S&P 500 90% and the NASDAQ 95%. If we just go back to the last major low
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[5:49] I think the big thing that's coming is a significant unwind of the AI trade. And whether that's actually the AI bubble popping and a and a waterfall event in the markets or something a little less harmful, I'm not sure.
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[15:28] I think next year is going to be a down year for the total return. I don't know how much maybe reverting towards 5,000 S&P 500.
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[36:56] my view, which I've been saying for some months now, is that 2026 is likely at best to be a rangebound market for the S&P
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[5:01] That said, there is a huge bifurcation in our economy in the sense of the bottom 50% of people have been under the gun for probably four years as the cost of living ramped up. Their incomes haven't kept up um pace with that. uh the top 10% of wage earners represent almost 50% of spending and they're deriving their confidence from what's happening in the financial markets namely the stock market uh and so forth. So you have this split screen if you will where the top segment of the uh economy is doing really well. They're kind of carrying the water for the rest of the economy. That's why I think if we see a protracted bare market, which is my expectation, David, sometime over the next window of time, we're going to enter a secular bare market.
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[29:27] My bet would be seasonality is usually very favorable. Um the selling pressure that we've seen hit some of the AI related stocks. Some of these stocks are down 20 30%. Um so my bet would be David is we'll see another rally as we go into end of this year early next year.
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The prediction claimed a rally going into end of 2025 and early 2026, and the period high of $7002.28 on 2026-01-28 represented a +3.5% gain from the prediction date price of $6765.88, confirming the rally occurred during the predicted timeframe despite the price being lower at the target date close.
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[3:25] I'm in the camp that the stock market has topped for at least a 10% 15% correction.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% correction would occur, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.2% decline from the prediction date price of $6672.41, falling significantly short of the 10% minimum threshold required for the prediction to be correct.
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[11:31] going into 2026. I think it's going to be a totally different story.
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[19:17] I think we're walking through a landmine and I think we're very close to the markets going for a nose dive.
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The prediction claimed the markets would go for a 'nose dive' (a sharp, significant decline), and while the period low of $6473.52 on 2026-03-20 represents a -3.9% decline from the prediction date price of $6735.35, the market also rallied to $7002.28 (a +3.96% gain) during the period, demonstrating that the market did not experience a clear 'nose dive' but rather volatility with both significant gains and losses, making the directional prediction only partially correct.
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[20:39] My baseline is the firewall will hold and we'll get to the other side of this 6 n 12 months down the road. We'll get some monetary fiscal stimulus and the economy should regain some traction. We should avoid recession.
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[19:41] what should you expect stocks to return you over the next say 5 to 10 years about 6%.
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[14:54] The daily data are suggesting down in the near term as well into October, November.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would decline in the near term into October and November, but the period low of $6521.92 represents only a 2.8% decline from the prediction date price of $6711.2, while the index ultimately closed 2.1% higher on the target date, showing the market did not sustain a meaningful downward move as predicted.
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[39:08] there's an upside target around 680 SPY. So, this this target is showing us we've got about 3% upside.
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The prediction claimed 3% upside to a target of 680 SPY (approximately $6800 on S&P 500), and the period high reached $6945.77, which represents a 4.6% gain from the prediction date price of $6637.97, exceeding the claimed 3% upside target.
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[25:35] I don't think they'll get anywhere close to hitting the numbers there. They're looking at 16% the estimates out there for increased earnings in 26. I don't think there's a a chance they can make that.
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[25:51] I think the US stock market is is potentially reaching the point the tipping point where where it will where the leaders will roll over and we'll see a a correction in the S&P. Uh I'm not looking for a crash or collapse but we'll probably get rotation out of those leaders
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[21:09] well here's my base case I started out the year I think this is going to be a down year for the stock market in the beginning of the third 50% draw down in the S&P 500 since the start of um since 2000.
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[3:32] typically around now into end of September that tends to be a pretty nasty stretch for markets and volatility tends to rise from here on going forward.
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The prediction claimed a 'nasty stretch with rising volatility' from mid-August through end of September, but the market only declined 1.6% from the prediction date ($6449.15) to the period low ($6343.86 on Aug 20), then recovered to close up 3.7% by the target date, showing neither a significant market decline nor sustained volatility consistent with a 'nasty stretch'.
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[11:19] I think there's more likely to be um you know downside surprises we let go out of the next six months
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The prediction claimed downside surprises were more likely over the next six months, but the S&P 500 experienced an overall 9.3% gain with a period low of only -0.47% from the prediction date, showing the market moved upward with minimal downside rather than experiencing downside surprises.
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[31:38] our base case is that we are in the second leg of a durable bull market that probably goes into the early 2030s. So any of these three, five, eight, I I I I I think we're our pullbacks this year are going to be contained to 3 to 8% if any.
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[37:16] 5800. Yeah, definitely based on what I'm seeing in the charts. Um, doesn't mean we can't get close to 7,000, but we'd have to fight through a lot of these big resistance levels at this point. And right now, again, it looks like the markets ignoring some of this good news with Nvidia.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would drop to 5,800 by end of year, representing a 7.1% decline from the prediction date price of $6,243.76. The period low was $6,201.59 (0.68% decline), which did not reach the target of 5,800 or approach the claimed magnitude of decline, so the prediction is wrong.
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[34:51] No, I I look I think we'll push higher here into earnings season probably the next few weeks and then I think we got to consolidate some gains maybe uh you know August, September, October, grind sideways, maybe a little natural pullbacks etc and probably finish the year a little little stronger.
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'push higher through earnings season' (achieved with period high of $6945.77, up 11.5% from prediction price of $6227.42), then 'consolidate gains through August-October' (the index did consolidate and grind sideways during this period), and 'finish the year stronger' (closed at $6845.5 on 12/31, up 9.9% from prediction date), so all three specific claims were validated by the price action.
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[3:25] I think we're seeing a pretty different circumstance right now which is expectations for future growth that are priced into the stock market are very high uh and remain very high and makes sense. you know, prices are basically at all-time highs, but at the same time, you're seeing a pretty rapid deceleration in the actual economic stats. And that sort of divergence suggests that we might be seeing uh a season of disappointment ahead when it comes to how the economy will perform relative to expectations.
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The prediction claimed a 'season of disappointment' due to growth expectations diverging from decelerating economic data, which is a bearish outlook expecting underperformance. However, the S&P 500 rose 10.3% from the prediction date to the target date close, and reached a period high of $6945.77 (11.6% gain), contradicting the bearish thesis that the market would experience disappointment.
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[0:32] I think the market still has upside to to go. Yes. Um I don't know that it's going to come necessarily this minute or this day. Sorry, I just want to turn my phone. Um but I think that certainly the second half of the year, uh there's a good chance that the market's going to go higher
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The prediction claimed the market would 'go higher' in the second half of 2025, and the period high of $6945.77 on 2025-12-26 represents a 15.3% gain from the prediction date price of $6025.17, confirming the market did indeed go higher during the specified timeframe.
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[17:20] I think the regime uncertainty will lead eventually to what? Looking ahead, it'll lead to a more serious slowdown and a recession in the United States. And with a recession, of course, you have topline revenues going down, margins going down, profits going down, and and you know, the stock market that the pees are going to come down.
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The prediction claimed the stock market would decline due to recession with falling revenues, margins, profits and P/E ratios, but the S&P 500 rose 14.7% from the prediction date ($5967.84) to the target date ($6845.50), with the period low only down 0.4% from the prediction price, failing to show the predicted decline.
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[19:01] I've been terming these the four, five, six markets that over the next several years, cash will return you 4%, bonds will return you around five, and stocks because of their high valuation will return you around six.
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[12:22] I still think that at some point the bottom is going to fall out of this market and we will see a major drop... this market goes down 10, 20, 30%.
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The prediction claimed a 10-30% drop would occur, but the period low of $5943.23 on 2025-06-23 represents only a 1.6% decline from the prediction date price of $6038.81, which falls well short of the claimed 10% minimum threshold.
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[10:36] I I would say this rollover should be should be starting to happen somewhere right up here. I think we could potentially push a little bit higher. I think somewhere between where we are right now and maybe just breaking to new all-time highs nominally for a few days or something. I think I think we're in this this zone for the market to roll over.
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The prediction claimed a rollover should start 'somewhere around current levels' with potential to reach new all-time highs for a few days before rolling over; instead, the S&P 500 reached a period low of $5943.23 (0.95% decline) on day 10 before rallying to $6427.02 (7.1% gain) by the target date, showing a continued uptrend rather than the predicted rollover and decline.
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[4:43] this is still a bounce and it's sucking investors and traders in, uh, just before it's probably going to roll over and I think head a whole lot lower
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The prediction claimed the S&P 500 would 'roll over and head a whole lot lower,' but instead the index only declined 2.1% from the prediction date price ($5892.58) to the period low ($5767.41 on day 7), then rallied 6.4% by the target date, contradicting the bearish forecast of a significant decline.
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[12:33] I think in the near term the stock market is going to be strong.
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The prediction claimed the stock market would be 'strong in the near term' with a bullish sentiment, and the period high of $6532.65 represents a 16.0% gain from the prediction date price of $5631.28, exceeding the directional claim and demonstrating market strength during the 4-month window.
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[17:11] And I guess I would just say that it could be right, but it could be right later with after another 10 15% decline, which would be my suspicion is what uh we're looking at.
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The prediction claimed a 10-15% decline would occur, but the period low of $5578.64 represents only a 1.27% decline from the prediction date price of $5650.38, falling far short of the claimed 10-15% magnitude.
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[3:06] Our base case scenario is that we are in what we've been saying is a W-shaped market in a U-shaped economy. And what I mean by that is that if you think about the shape of a W, we're sort of on the inside left of the W. And we're expecting over the next one to two quarters that the markets will eventually have to uh sell off again and price in the inside right of the W
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The prediction specifically claimed the S&P 500 would 'sell off again' over the next one to two quarters, but the period low of $5578.64 on 2025-05-07 was only 0.45% below the prediction date price of $5604.14, failing to demonstrate any meaningful selloff before the market rallied 22.1% to reach $6840.2 by the target date.
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[12:23] we're looking at potentially a 15% to another 23 24% drop to the downside. Uh, From where we are right now.
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The prediction claimed a 15-24% drop from the $5569.06 prediction date price, which would require a period low of $4232-$4733.70, but the actual period low was $5433.24 (a 2.4% decline), falling far short of the 15% minimum threshold.
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[13:50] I think we're in a bare market in US stock market. It's early days. I think it'd be we'd be delightful if we end this this year not down 20% or more.
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The prediction claimed S&P 500 would be down 20% or more by end of 2025; the period low of $5433.24 represents only a 2.3% decline from the prediction date price of $5560.83, falling far short of the required 20% threshold.
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[0:00] You are going to see the equities which rallied yesterday and today they are going to tank again in a big way.
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The prediction claimed equities would 'tank again in a big way,' but the period low of $5433.24 represents only a 1.7% decline from the prediction date price of $5528.75, which does not constitute a significant crash, while the period high reached 5% gains, contradicting the bearish forecast.
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[6:47] I expect the market to hit the 7500 or so in 27.
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[14:16] we could see it pull back to about 4600 all the way down to about 4100. So in in the reality from the ultimate highs we're looking at about a 25 uh to roughly 30% pullback
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The prediction claimed a 25-30% pullback to the 4600-4100 range from highs; however, the period low of $5101.63 represents only a 5.5% decline from the prediction date price of $5396.63, falling well short of the 25-30% pullback magnitude claimed.
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[29:43] Do you think that the worst is behind us for equities volatility? Oh, no. I I think things things are just warming up
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The prediction claimed volatility would 'get worse' and 'things are just warming up,' but the market experienced a brief dip of only 5.6% from the prediction date before rallying 26.6% to close the period significantly higher, indicating volatility did not materialize as a dominant feature and the bearish outlook was contradicted by strong market performance.
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[5:17] I think the skew is definitely still negative into April earnings.
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The prediction claimed negative skew (more downside risk) into April earnings, but the S&P 500 experienced a 4.56% decline from prediction date to period low followed by a strong 10% recovery to close, demonstrating positive upside momentum and lower realized downside risk than predicted, contradicting the bearish skew thesis.
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[0:17] we're we're probably going at best case we're going into recession. Stock markets are going to go down more.
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The prediction claimed stock markets would 'go down more,' but the S&P 500 reached a period low of $4835.04 (14.1% decline from $5633.07) before recovering to $6845.5 (21.5% gain) by year-end, meaning markets ultimately went up significantly rather than down as predicted.
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[2:07] I think we are in striking distance in the next uh more or less week or two uh to actually enter bare market territory. And if we take a look at the S&P 500 using technical analysis, using a Fibonacci extension, which tells us based on the current price action, the past price action, where price should go, that is going to give us where the full downside target is, which is about 15 uh 5183 on the SP500
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The prediction claimed S&P 500 would drop to 5183 within 1-2 weeks, and the period low of 4835.04 on trading day 5 clearly exceeded this target, making the specific price target achieved during the prediction window.
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[6:39] I think we're we're primed and ready for another 50 plus percent selloff breaking the 2022 lows on the on the S 500
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[4:51] we should have some type of bounce up into like March 24th March 25th area
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[11:46] I I'd say likely for short-term rally now... so it might it could be get a nice sharp rally May last two days five days 10 days it may take some indices back up to the above the previous highs in on a minor basis but at this point don't think I don't think that we're going to see um continuation of the bull market
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[10:48] we're probably bothering at this time... based on probability we have to say we're probably bothering at this time
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[20:41] the likely evidence is that we'll see much lower lows before this is over but the current lad that you're seeing is not likely to be the a a a not like to be a continuation it's likely there'll be a a break and the market will rally back before the market continues lower
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