Oil Predictions
Browse Oil market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[14:48] Even if the war ends, we know that a lot of uh countries are going to be looking to increase their stockpiles of oil. So, they'll still be buying for that uh reason. It'll probably still be a geopolitical risk premium associated with oil. So prices could fall enough to help us avoid a recession, but they're not going back to where they were in February.
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[37:33] I say it's going to come online faster than skeptics think, but it still will take a long time. Um I think the first half a million barrels a day will be easier than most people realize to bring online.
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[8:27] and I don't think and I've argued that we're not going back to $65 oil.
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[11:43] Based on the chart pattern right now, the first major level is 140.
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[5:50] So oil's going to go up in price because the the paper and futures markets will eventually catch the physical markets. The the physical markets up here, David, and the paper markets down here, right? And and eventually the paper market's going to be bug mugged by the physical reality and the price of of the futures will go up to match the physical.
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[26:34] I think that you probably will see at some point over the next month or so oil prices coming back down.
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[6:47] in the longer run over the course of this year, I think oil is going
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[32:12] The long-term real price of oil will be lower from here. um especially if the top is already in.
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[0:11] I think this is the year I finally get to my $40 barrel call in crude oil.
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[3:43] I would expect a draw down in the next 3 to six months back to $70 a barrel.
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[12:03] which means we continue to price this in as a shock rather than a structural change.
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[3:01] a year from now, oil is trading at $69.
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[11:20] I tell you this is the way you should think about it so the world production oil total you know oil production in the world is roughly around 100 million barrels per day okay and as you all know by now like 20% basically flows through you know the Persian Gulf. So which is about 20 million barrels per day. The you the typical sort of rule of thumb measure for Wall Street's you know energy you know oil analysts is this like you know if you lose suddenly okay 1 million barrels per day in terms of production that usually is associated with let's say a 10 to 15% increase in oil price. Okay. So right now we've gone from let's say $60 to $90. So that's a 50% increase in oil price from the from from the low.
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[22:29] So, I think that the high for oil is going to be in for at least for a couple months. And I I I can say that with a lot of conviction because we we study capitulation moments um scientifically and the move today is is um very very unusual. So yeah, I think the highs for for the year are probably in
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[27:39] We've already said that the price of gasoline has gone up about 50 cents on average in the United States in the last few weeks and and it will go up. It'll continue to go up because as you just said, we had a West Texas Intermediate crude hit a hit a 52- week high today.
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[3:36] At this point, I kind of think that's what's going to happen. And I think we'll fall back down into this range.
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The prediction claimed oil would 'fall back down into its previous trading range' after a news-driven spike, but instead oil spiked from $71.23 to a period high of $119.48 (66.7% gain) and closed at $111.54 (56.6% gain) by the target date, moving dramatically away from the previous range rather than falling back into it.
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[20:40] And then a year or so's time after that, it'll be oil and oil's going to go ballistic. Not soon, I don't think. But it will go ballistic at some point
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[8:30] We could be in a year or two, even if the economy slides into recession. Oil could be $100 per barrel. That would not shock me one bit.
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The prediction claimed oil could reach $100 per barrel within one to two years; the period high of $119.48 on 2026-03-09 exceeded the $100 target, so the prediction was correct.
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[34:12] if we talk again a couple of years from now, I would imagine that we're seeing uh oil trading at least up into the 80s, perhaps in the '90s.
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[31:32] we expected oil to bottom in Q1.
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[5:56] I think oil prices are headed up.
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[31:34] And then in I 18 months, two years, oil's going to go mental.
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[25:54] this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil
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The prediction claimed oil would 'continue to rally significantly to the upside' following a bullish breakout, and the period high of $119.48 represents an 88.9% gain from the prediction date price of $63.21, far exceeding any reasonable interpretation of 'significant' upside rally.
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[23:38] I think the oil price is going to 85 or 90.
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The prediction claimed oil prices would reach $85-90 per barrel, and the period high of $119.48 on 2026-03-09 exceeded the upper target of $90, meeting the specific claim made.
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[20:01] My favorite commodity for 2026 though is oil. I think at $56 a barrel for WTI, it's probably one of the cheapest assets in the world and finding it a very attractive place to invest right now
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[21:10] I would suggest to you David that peak oil demand doesn't occur in my lifetime and probably not in yours.
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[34:44] I think that oil crude oil prices are probably going to be still struggle to go up. I think they're going to continue to maybe be sideways to down. I think the supply demand in crude oil is still still kind of weak.
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The prediction claimed oil prices would be 'sideways to down' due to weak supply-demand dynamics, but oil rose 51.2% from $58.84 to $88.98 by the target date and reached a period high of $119.48, representing a strong upward move that directly contradicts the bearish 'sideways to down' forecast.
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[27:43] more pressure downwards. Um there's nothing no bullish catalyst on the horizon that we see. there's just so much of it, David.
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The prediction claimed oil prices would face downward pressure with no bullish catalysts, and the period low of $54.98 on 2025-12-16 represents a -8.6% decline from the prediction date price of $60.13, confirming sustained downward pressure throughout the period as predicted.
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[32:35] it could be significantly higher in the next three to five years but let's just say it's higher a hundred dollars a barrel maybe$1und whatever
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[10:32] And I think crude oil is going back to 40.
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The prediction claimed crude oil would drop to $40/barrel, but the period low was $54.98 on 2025-12-16, which is $10.61 above the $40 target, representing only a 16.2% decline from the prediction date price of $65.59 rather than the 39% decline needed to reach $40.
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[0:00] I think there's really only one way this resolves from a price perspective. And I think it's just a matter of time before we get into an environment where we hit multiple all-time highs.
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[16:00] I think there is geopolitical risk. I think it's not priced in. And like we were saying, I think even just modestly better energy and trade policy by the US could give us back, you know, 10 or $15 of price even in a situation where you have OPEC bringing back on supply. So I think there's some real nice asymmetry here. And again, I don't think that oil should necessarily be $100 here with the current supply demand dynamic, but I think the path towards marginal sanctions enforcement on Iran and sort of normalization, uh, I think there's a decent shot at sort of a $75 plus oil price through the end of the year.
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The prediction claimed oil would reach $75 or higher by end of year; the period high during the window was $66.42 on 2025-09-26, which is $8.58 below the $75 target, failing to meet the specific price threshold claimed.
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[30:38] I think we're probably going to see oil back down at 56 $57.
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The prediction claimed oil would decline to $56-57 per barrel, and the period low of $54.98 on 2025-12-16 fell below the target range, confirming the decline was reached during the prediction window.
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[21:03] we feel like that that's the next that's the next move you'll get from oil over the next 12 months it'll perk up.
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Graded early 2026-03-22. CL=F rose from $62.69 (2025-05-19) to $98.62, up 57.3% with a period high of $119.48, well above the start price. Oil clearly rose over the 12-month window.
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[11:27] looked like crude oil to me was going to head to $40 a barrel. Now we have a good reason to do that.
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[12:13] Oil's going to 50 bucks. Like you just pulled it off. I don't know who's buying oil at 61, but they don't like money.
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The prediction claimed oil would drop to $50 per barrel; the period low was $54.98 on 2025-12-16, which is $4.98 above the $50 target, so the specific price target was not met during the prediction window.
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[27:13] There's a very critical line in the sand around the $65 per barrel area, which I believe it's going to break at some point... So I believe we're going to see oil break down.
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