Andrew Sarna Predictions

[12:32] I just look out say say to myself 5 years from now is gold going to be higher um well there's no way that the US is going to be able to cut down their deficits I mean Elon Musk tried but it's clear like you have to go after entitlements and which president is going to go after entitlements? It's so deeply unpopular.

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[12:57] something like copper where um we know the US has to invest so much into the grid. Um you know the world wants to move towards electrification. We know they're not building any any more new mines. And while in the short term you're going to see some noise and probably some sensitivity to the economic cycle um 5 years from now you know that market is only going to tighten more.

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[1:57] I worry about the situation where we end up in this overtightening scenario. Um because as I mentioned the broader economy is sort of lukewarm right now and is really only the AI economy that is running red-hot... we're going to run into this situation where an overtightening um causes the the broader lukewarm economy to actually slow. And then if we see any hiccup on the AI side, well, the economy is going to be in a pretty bad place. And I could see a situation where we get that growth scare.

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[7:59] I have a real hard time owning bonds for the long term.

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[38:20] there was a recent Morgan Stanley report that said uh the shortfall for power in the US is um is expected to be 57 gawatts through 2028. And again I think it's a situation where it's like okay... the US is short 10 New York cities of power through 2028. And it's like okay where where is this going to come from?... you have some of these power producers that have come off their highs... you don't necessarily need to see that parabolic move for them to be attractively valued at these levels.

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[39:49] we're also looking at other pockets of value um like senior's homes. So, we talk um obviously I'm sure you've had guests come on talk about the silver tsunami. uh we're getting to an area or um a demographic cliff where we're going to see u more and more boomers age and get to an age where they might be uh have to move into uh care... I still think some of these things can can work.

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[0:00] there's a limit to how high treasury yields can go if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit... I just see it as really there's a cap on yields. And while there's not a firm cap yet, while we haven't seen actual yield curve control, there's an implicit target

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[6:05] if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit, I just don't even know how a recession is possible. And I feel like bearish investors have really just gotten burned because there's so many bearish signs.

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[5:22] I think what you see from Warsh is ultimately a hawkish hold. He needs to talk down markets because we talk about how important the bond market is. Um but I don't think there is room for a hike.

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[11:32] we're seeing that complex rollover now... I think we just rollover and end up in a more anemic type economy that is still driven by government spending and the AI narrative fades away

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[8:09] 40% of the US uh S&P 500 is concentrated in 10 names, and those 10 names are all more or less indexed to the AI trade, uh which is convulsing to an extent uh post-Google earnings, and the market didn't like uh what they saw from a CapEx perspective. So, there's even question marks around uh equity markets.

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[18:53] I take a step back, and as a long-term investor with our clients, looking out 5 years from now, um again, let's think about this big picture, and there's no way the US or the rest of the G7 are going to balance their uh books. So, um and on top of that you see these countries and geopolitical tension servicing and the world order fracturing and I think that's just another bull case for for gold.

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[17:16] over the long longer term, we see higher oil prices, which will eventually lead to uh some of these producers re-rating.

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[10:26] I'm confident 5 years from now both are going to be higher... what we've been doing is we view the energy sector as just a place to wait. Our view is that contrary to some of the narratives we see in the news that there has been underinvestment in this sector. Uh we think that these are names where eventually uh we will get through any supply glut and obviously with a geopolitical premium in the Middle East, uh domestic producers should trade at a little bit of a premium.

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