Andrew Sarna Predictions
Portfolio Manager, Fourth Lane Partners
Track Andrew Sarna's public market predictions and forecast accuracy. Each prediction is recorded from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[0:00] there's a limit to how high treasury yields can go if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit... I just see it as really there's a cap on yields. And while there's not a firm cap yet, while we haven't seen actual yield curve control, there's an implicit target
Extracted by AI from a YouTube transcript. May be inaccurate or missing context. Verify via source. Send a correction.
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[6:05] if the US is running a 6 to 7% deficit, I just don't even know how a recession is possible. And I feel like bearish investors have really just gotten burned because there's so many bearish signs.
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[5:22] I think what you see from Warsh is ultimately a hawkish hold. He needs to talk down markets because we talk about how important the bond market is. Um but I don't think there is room for a hike.
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[11:32] we're seeing that complex rollover now... I think we just rollover and end up in a more anemic type economy that is still driven by government spending and the AI narrative fades away
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[8:09] 40% of the US uh S&P 500 is concentrated in 10 names, and those 10 names are all more or less indexed to the AI trade, uh which is convulsing to an extent uh post-Google earnings, and the market didn't like uh what they saw from a CapEx perspective. So, there's even question marks around uh equity markets.
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[18:53] I take a step back, and as a long-term investor with our clients, looking out 5 years from now, um again, let's think about this big picture, and there's no way the US or the rest of the G7 are going to balance their uh books. So, um and on top of that you see these countries and geopolitical tension servicing and the world order fracturing and I think that's just another bull case for for gold.
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[17:16] over the long longer term, we see higher oil prices, which will eventually lead to uh some of these producers re-rating.
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[10:26] I'm confident 5 years from now both are going to be higher... what we've been doing is we view the energy sector as just a place to wait. Our view is that contrary to some of the narratives we see in the news that there has been underinvestment in this sector. Uh we think that these are names where eventually uh we will get through any supply glut and obviously with a geopolitical premium in the Middle East, uh domestic producers should trade at a little bit of a premium.
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