US Economy Predictions
Browse US Economy market predictions and forecasts from well-known financial commentators. Each prediction is tracked from the date it was published to its estimated deadline, then graded correct or wrong based on the outcome.
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[2:03] I think we could be on the cusps of, an official recession
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[0:00] We are headed toward a weaker economy. That suggests that the stock market could actually suffer because of earnings weaknesses.
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[0:11] we're on the edge of a massive depression. The most basic reason for it is the debasement of the dollar.
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[0:15] We're going to go into a massive economic boom. We're at the beginning of a massive massive economic boom. It's going to be quite inflationary but it's going to be a massive economic boom and you really really really got to embrace that otherwise you'll miss out on it.
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[12:15] What I'll tell you is data back to 1948 that in an employment slowdown, when non-farm payrolls get to 0.6% year-over-year, you are in a recession 100% of the time. 11 for 11... you could build the assumption that a recession is probably already starting
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[17:58] And my expectation is you you are moving toward a recession in 2026.
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[20:13] So what that's telling us is that 2026 should be a good year for the economy.
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[0:03] For a major recession. Like, we're going to I think this what I think what's coming is going to be far worse than 089. When this happens, whether it's in a year or two or whenever once the Margo round stops and the music stops, this is going to be far worse, folks. This is going to be the worst thing since the drops in 2000 and probably even going back closing in on 1929.
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[4:28] I think the growth rate of the US economy will be much slower than it would have been otherwise
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[24:08] So I am I'm currently in the camp that views gradually decelerating US economic situation. Uh we don't have great seasonality uh coming up uh especially by September in the stock market. Uh so I do think that at least this two-month window is a time for you know potential caution until we have uh you know maybe a little bit more clarity on what tariffs are going to look like going forward.
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The prediction was wrong on both counts: the S&P 500 rose ~1.9% in August and ~3.5% in September 2025 (its strongest September since 2010), hitting record highs rather than showing poor seasonality; and U.S. Q3 GDP surged to 4.4%, accelerating rather than decelerating. (https://www.bbae.com/blog/sp-500-the-winners-and-losers-of-september-2025/)
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[0:15] What we're seeing is the onset of a slowdown that will eventually lead to a recession late in the year.
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The US economy did not enter a recession in late 2025. BEA data shows Q2 GDP grew 3.8%, Q3 grew 4.4%, and Q4 grew 1.4% — all positive, with no NBER recession declaration. (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-advance-estimate-4th-quarter-and-year-2025)
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[3:55] I'd say yes and yes. I mean again I think the first quarter was flattered and the fact that it was import surging. I mean we're hearing these stats I'm sure you are too of ships that are you know leaving China 50 60% empty and that there's a very real possibility of almost co-like supply chain glitches and dislocations coming up.
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[9:27] I think at this point it favors a recession. Now things are obviously very fluid and we've got a president who's extremely mercurial and who knows what he's going to say tomorrow. I think the problem that he's got is he's created tremendous uncertainty. And when businesses and individuals are uncertain about the future, when they're uh when they're confused, what do they tend to do? They tend to sit on their hands. They don't spend as much.
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[10:08] we see the economy heading into a technical recession. Uh a technical recession is a just a mere collection of of negative quarters where you're having negative growth.
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Graded early 2026-03-22. Technical recession requires multiple consecutive negative GDP quarters. Only Q1 2025 was negative (-0.6%). Q2 2025 (+3.8%), Q3 (+4.4%), Q4 (+0.7%) all positive. Q1 2026 tracking +2.3% (Atlanta Fed GDPNow). With one quarter left before May 2026 target, impossible to achieve two consecutive negative quarters.
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[6:48] you're going to have a deep recession. You're going to have higher inflation. You're going to have lower growth. you're going to have further deterioration in the United States stature both domestically and on an international basis.
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[10:34] there's going to be a recession. I think Trump is gambling on a V-shaped recession. We're on the back end of it before the midterms.
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[13:55] recession is the most likely answer here later this year.
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